US

Iran leader Khamenei killed in massive US and Israeli attack

US

'Severe blow' dealt to Iran command centres: latest developments

  • - 'Severe blow' to Iran - Israel's military said it had dealt a "severe blow" to Iran's command and control centres after a fresh wave of strikes on military targets in the Islamic republic. 
  • US President Donald Trump said the war on Iran could last a month, after Washington announced it had destroyed the headquarters of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards and Israel said the joint operation had dealt "a severe blow" to Tehran's command and control apparatus.
  • - 'Severe blow' to Iran - Israel's military said it had dealt a "severe blow" to Iran's command and control centres after a fresh wave of strikes on military targets in the Islamic republic. 
US President Donald Trump said the war on Iran could last a month, after Washington announced it had destroyed the headquarters of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards and Israel said the joint operation had dealt "a severe blow" to Tehran's command and control apparatus.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that air strikes on Tehran would intensify in the coming days while Trump said he would be talking to Iranian leaders, without specifying a timeline.
A series of loud blasts were heard over Jerusalem after Iran launched missiles at Israel late Sunday.
The European Union meanwhile warned of the cost to the Middle East of a long war.
The leaders of France, Italy and the UK said they would take defensive action against Iran if necessary to protect their interests in the Gulf.
Here are the latest developments:

- War could last 'four weeks' -

Trump said he envisaged a four-week military operation against Iran, where US and Israeli strikes have killed the country's supreme leader and crippled its defence capabilities.
"It's always been a four-week process. We figured it will be four weeks or so," he told British newspaper the Daily Mail during a round of interviews.
"As strong as it is, it's a big country, it'll take four weeks -- or less," Trump said.

'Severe blow' to Iran

Israel's military said it had dealt a "severe blow" to Iran's command and control centres after a fresh wave of strikes on military targets in the Islamic republic. 
The military said it "struck dozens of the regime's military command centres, including headquarters belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), intelligence headquarters, IRGC Air Force command centres, and internal security headquarters".

Revolutionary Guards HQ 'destroyed'

The US military announced it had destroyed the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) headquarters. 
"America has the most powerful military on earth, and the IRGC no longer has a headquarters," the US Central Command, or CENTCOM, said in a statement, adding that the strike had occurred on Saturday.

- Blasts over Jerusalem -

A series of loud blasts were heard above Jerusalem following sirens on Sunday evening, AFP journalists reported, after the Israeli military said it had detected missiles launched from Iran.
"A short while ago, the (Israeli military) identified missiles launched from Iran toward the territory of the State of Israel," it said in a statement.
"Defensive systems are operating to intercept the threat," it added. 

EU 'long war' warning

The EU's top diplomat warned that the Middle East "stands to lose greatly from any drawn-out war", urging Iran to refrain from indiscriminate attacks in retaliation to US-Israeli strikes.
"The events unfolding in Iran must not lead to an escalation that could threaten the Middle East, Europe and beyond, with unpredictable consequences, also in the economic sphere," Kaja Kallas said, speaking on behalf of the EU's 27 nations after an emergency meeting of foreign ministers.

- France, Germany, UK warn Iran -

France, Germany and the UK warned Iran they were ready to take military action to defend their interests and those of its allies in the Gulf.
The warning from the three countries' leaders are a response to "indiscriminate and disproportionate missile attacks launched by Iran against countries in the region, including those who were not involved in initial US and Israeli military operations", said a joint statement.
"We will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran's capability to fire missiles and drones at their source," it added.

Tehran police station hit

Iranian media reported that a police station in a city on the outskirts of Tehran had been hit, killing an unspecified number of people, with others reportedly trapped under debris.
"According to initial reports, a number of citizens were martyred and some were trapped under the rubble," the Tasnim news agency reported. 

Tehran hospital struck

Iranian news agency ISNA reported that Gandhi hospital in northern Tehran had been targeted by strikes.
The Fars and Mizan agencies published a video, presented as being from inside the facility, showing debris on the floor among wheelchairs.

UAE withdraws ambassador

The United Arab Emirates shut its embassy in Iran and recalled its ambassador, following a barrage of Iranian attacks targeting the Emirates. 
The decision was made in response to "the blatant Iranian missile attacks that targeted the country's territories, which constitute aggressive assaults that struck civilian sites, including residential areas, airports, ports, and service facilities, and exposed defenceless civilians to danger".

Deadly Pakistan protests

At least 17 people were killed across Pakistan as protesters outraged over the death of Iran's supreme leader took to the streets, some attempting to storm US diplomatic buildings.
In the Pakistani megacity of Karachi, an AFP journalist witnessed hundreds of pro-Iranian protesters trying to enter the US consulate, prompting clashes with police.
At least 10 people had died and over 70 were injured as of Sunday evening, the office of the Karachi police surgeon said.

UAE markets closed

Dubai's and Abu Dhabi's stock exchanges will be closed at least for Monday and Tuesday due to the ongoing conflict in the region, the United Arab Emirates' regulator announced
The Emirates have been hit by Iranian strikes since Saturday in response to the joint Israeli-US attacks.

First US casualties

Three members of the US military have been killed and five others seriously wounded in the operation against Iran, the Pentagon said, the first American deaths in the campaign that killed the Islamic republic's supreme leader.

Strikes to 'intensify'

Netanyahu vowed to intensify strikes on Tehran in the coming days as the army announced it had called up 100,000 reservists. 
"Our forces are now striking at the heart of Tehran with intense power, and this will only escalate in the days ahead," he said in a video statement.

Iranians 'want to talk'

Trump said he would be talking to Iranian leaders but was vague on the timing, noting that much of the country's leadership was dead.
"They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them. They should have done it sooner," Trump was quoted as saying by The Atlantic.
He told Fox News that 48 Iranian leaders had been killed and that the results of the offensive so far were "very positive".

Iran kills 9 in Israel

Iran strikes on Israel killed at least nine people in the city of Beit Shemesh, first responders said. Another 28 were wounded, the Magen David Adom emergency service said.
In the UAE, the defence ministry said three people had been killed and 58 wounded since Iran's strikes began Saturday. 
In Kuwait, one person has been killed and 32 wounded since the start of Iran's retaliation campaign, the health ministry said.

Sinking oil tanker

Two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, one off Oman and the other off the UAE, the British maritime security agency UKMTO said.
Iranian state television said an oil tanker was struck and was sinking after trying to "illegally" pass through the strait, which Iran's Revolutionary Guards have declared closed. 
Major container shipping companies including MSC and Maersk have suspended navigation in the region.

US sinks Iranian warship

US forces struck and sank an Iranian warship in the Gulf of Oman at the start of its operations against the Islamic republic, the US military said Sunday.
"An Iranian Jamaran-class corvette was struck by US forces during the start of Operation Epic Fury. The ship is currently sinking to the bottom of the Gulf of Oman at a Chah Bahar pier," US Central Command posted on X.

Iran denies targeting neighbours

Iran's powerful security chief denied Tehran was targeting its neighbours, insisting its retaliation was aimed at US bases. 
Gulf countries were to hold virtual talks late Sunday to discuss a unified response, two Gulf diplomats told AFP. 

NATO adjusting forces

NATO's top commander in Europe said Sunday he was "closely" following developments in Iran and the Middle East to defend against "potential threats".
US General Alexus Grynkewich "has and will continue to adjust NATO's very strong force posture to ensure the security of its 32 member nations and to defend the Alliance from potential threats", said NATO on X.

More deaths announced

Iran's police intelligence chief Gholamreza Rezaian was killed during US and Israeli strikes on the Islamic republic, Iranian media reported Sunday.
So too was its armed forces chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi along with other senior generals, state TV reported Sunday.
It listed the name of Mousavi along with defence minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and others.
Iran's judiciary confirmed the chief of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Pakpour, and another top security adviser, Ali Shamkhani, had also died in the strikes.

UN nuclear agency to meet

The United Nations' nuclear agency will hold an extraordinary meeting on Iran Monday.
The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the meeting was at the request of Russia, a key ally of Tehran.
burs-db/jj

conflict

EU warns against long war, urges 'credible transition' in Iran

  • "The events unfolding in Iran must not lead to an escalation that could threaten the Middle East, Europe and beyond, with unpredictable consequences, also in the economic sphere."
  • The EU warned Sunday against a prolonged war in the Middle East, saying further escalation could threaten Europe and beyond, as it urged Iran to refrain from indiscriminate retaliation after US-Israeli strikes.
  • "The events unfolding in Iran must not lead to an escalation that could threaten the Middle East, Europe and beyond, with unpredictable consequences, also in the economic sphere."
The EU warned Sunday against a prolonged war in the Middle East, saying further escalation could threaten Europe and beyond, as it urged Iran to refrain from indiscriminate retaliation after US-Israeli strikes.
Foreign ministers from the bloc's 27 nations -- most of which are NATO members -- held extraordinary talks via video link on day two of an assault that killed Iran's supreme leader, as EU chief Ursula von der Leyen called for a "credible transition" in the country. 
"The Middle East stands to lose greatly from any drawn-out war," the European Union's top diplomat Kaja Kallas said, speaking on behalf of member states after the meeting.
"The events unfolding in Iran must not lead to an escalation that could threaten the Middle East, Europe and beyond, with unpredictable consequences, also in the economic sphere."
Writing on social media after calls with several Middle East leaders, von der Leyen said the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spurred "renewed hope for the people of Iran" but also carried "a real risk of instability".
The Islamic republic launched a new round of retaliatory attacks across the Gulf on Sunday after vowing to avenge the supreme leader.
NATO said its top commander in Europe was "closely" following developments in the Middle East and adjusting forces as needed to defend against "potential threats" -- citing in particular "ballistic missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles, emanating from this or other regions".
The commander, US General Alexus Grynkewich, was speaking "actively and regularly" with military leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, and with NATO's Secretary General Mark Rutte, the alliance said.
Von der Leyen said Brussels was engaging closely "with all key actors" to safeguard stability and security.
"The risk of further escalation is real. This is why a credible transition in Iran is urgently needed," she wrote on X, calling for a "lasting solution", after speaking with Qatar's ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
"This must mean the halt of Iran's military nuclear and ballistic missile programmes and the end of destabilising actions on air, land and at sea."  
Von der Leyen also spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Likewise, Kallas said she was in contact with regional partners "that bear the brunt of Iran's military actions" to find practical steps for de-escalation.
"The death of Ali Khamenei is a defining moment in Iran's history," she wrote on X.
"What comes next is uncertain. But there is now an open path to a different Iran, one that its people may have greater freedom to shape".
ub/ec/cc

US

Bored of peace? Trump keeps choosing war

BY DANNY KEMP

  • Back on the campaign trail in 2024, he repeatedly said he had started "no new wars."
  • On a US late-night television show Saturday, the host played a clip from 2011 of a businessman warning that president Barack Obama "will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate."
  • Back on the campaign trail in 2024, he repeatedly said he had started "no new wars."
On a US late-night television show Saturday, the host played a clip from 2011 of a businessman warning that president Barack Obama "will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate."
That businessman was Donald Trump. Fast-forward 15 years and Trump, now in his own second term as president, ordered huge military strikes on Iran when talks with Tehran brought no breakthrough.
The commander-in-chief has repeatedly declared himself to be a "President of Peace," boasted of his dealmaking ability in ending global conflicts, and complained of being cheated of the Nobel Peace Prize.
His rise to power in 2016 on an "America First" platform was partly fueled by his rejection of bloody foreign wars waged by the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Back on the campaign trail in 2024, he repeatedly said he had started "no new wars." After returning to the White House he slammed the "so-called nation-builders" who "wrecked far more nations than they built."
In line with his vision of himself, Trump earlier this year held the first meeting of his "Board of Peace" -- a body originally created to uphold the Gaza ceasefire that has morphed into a would-be United Nations featuring several authoritarians.
When the Nobel academy snubbed him, Trump even proudly accepted a peace award from football's world governing body FIFA that appeared to have been specially created for him.

'Major surprise'

But in the second year of his second term, Trump suddenly appears as comfortable prosecuting war as making peace.
In the space of less than two months, the man who once shunned "regime change" has reveled in the military operations that toppled Venezuela's president and killed the supreme leader of Iran.
That's not to mention threatening a military takeover of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark.
"All this comes as a major surprise," said Richard Haass, a former diplomat in president George W. Bush's administration.
"This is an administration that has shown no interest in regime change or democracy promotion elsewhere," Haass said in a newsletter. "Why here and now is a mystery as there is no clear evidence that the Iranian regime (however unpopular and weakened) is on the edge of collapse."
The scion of a property empire, Trump himself avoided the draft for the Vietnam war. 
But the former military academy student has long shown a fascination for martial trappings, often surrounding himself with soldiers and visiting military sites.
He frequently brags about US military might, including in last year's strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and boasted of restoring America's fighting force to its former glories with new battleships that critics say would be sitting ducks for missiles.

'I got power'

The question now is what effect Trump's wars will have on US voters, especially the Trump supporters who believed his campaign promises to end its "forever wars."
The first major test will be the American public's willingness to tolerate military casualties, with the announcement Sunday of the first three service members to die in action against Iran. 
After the strikes, only one in four Americans approved of the attacks while 43 percent disapproved, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday.
Trump's wars could figure heavily in the November's midterm elections, in which Republicans already fear they could lose control of the House of Representatives.
Trump is deep under water in the polls thanks largely to voters still feeling the pinch from the cost of living -- an issue the Iran strikes could exacerbate if oil prices spike.
The effect on his base will be a particular concern. Former "Make America Great Again" firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene, who split from Trump last year, called the Iran attack a "lie."
But Trump makes no bones about how he enjoys commanding the world's most powerful military.
Welcoming the Florida Panthers ice hockey team to the White House in January, Trump joked that he hated the assembled players because of their good looks and "all this power."
"But I got power too, it's called the United States military," he said.
dk/mlm

conflict

'A terrible day,' says Israel community shaken by deadly Iranian strike

BY LOUIS BAUDOIN-LAARMAN

  • The missile hit the public protection centre while its door was still open to allow people in, Malka and other residents said, killing at least 9, injuring 46, and leaving 11 missing, according to the police.
  • Ilana Malka doesn't know if her three great-nephews are alive after an Iranian missile struck a shelter in her city of Beit Shemesh, in central Israel, leaving a crater in the ground and a void in the community.
  • The missile hit the public protection centre while its door was still open to allow people in, Malka and other residents said, killing at least 9, injuring 46, and leaving 11 missing, according to the police.
Ilana Malka doesn't know if her three great-nephews are alive after an Iranian missile struck a shelter in her city of Beit Shemesh, in central Israel, leaving a crater in the ground and a void in the community.
The building that housed the shelter was blown to bits by the hit, sending chunks of concrete large enough to destroy cars 50 metres (yards) away.
The missile hit the public protection centre while its door was still open to allow people in, Malka and other residents said, killing at least 9, injuring 46, and leaving 11 missing, according to the police.
"I heard about my three children, my brother's grandchildren, that they were there, and they didn't find them yet", 65-year-old Malka said, visibly shaken.
Her own house, about 100 metres from the shelter, lost most of its windows and bits of ceiling, while her garden was littered with oranges blown off a tree by the blast.
But she considers herself lucky, she said, as she would usually head to the public shelter when air raid sirens ring.
Tired from the previous day of war, she decided to head down to her own basement shelter, known as a mamal in Hebrew, which is not up to official standard norms and whose door was blown off by the blast around midday on Sunday.
"God helped me. Maybe he loves us. For sure, he loves us", she told AFP.

'Everyone knows everyone'

Like Malka, most residents of the neighbourhood knew someone inside the public shelter.
"Beit Shemesh is a small town, so everyone knows everyone", Moshe Levy, a 52-year-old contractor, told AFP.
His sister moved their 88-year-old mother from the apartment he finished renovating last week just two hours before the strike.
Though not so close to the impact site, it sustained considerable damage including windows blasted out of their frames and holes in the roof.
"Here its just material damage, money can fix it all. There, money can't fix life", he said, sparing a thought for the members of his community who lost relatives.
The roof of his mother's building — like many others in the neighbourhood -- bore clues to the blast's centre: clay tiles broken or lifted on the side facing the shelter.
Closer to the site where the bombed building once stood, the streets were progressively more and more covered with debris of all sorts from the disintegrated shelter, chunks of clay tiles, wood from furniture, bits of cement and glass from windows.
Israel's sophisticated air defence systems have shot down many missiles fired from Iran, but Saturday's strike served as a stark reminder that interceptors do not provide guaranteed protection.
The war, which started on Saturday, intensified on Sunday as Tehran retaliated for the killing of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with missile barrages against Israel, Gulf countries and US military assets across the region.
Ricki Ben David, a 56-year-old nurse, first feared for her grandchildren, who live below her.
"I wasn't panicked about myself. I wasn't afraid for myself as much as I was worried about my family members", she said.
"I know these people", she said of the strike victims, "people we know, neighbours, like family. It's simply a terrible day", Ben David said.
"We live together, we pray together in the synagogue, we see each other on holidays, we help one another", she added.
At the impact site, a fresh evergreen scent wafted through the air from cypress trees whose branches were blown off in the strike.
As night began to fall, search and rescue teams lit large floodlights to continue their search for the missing, while police and military officers dispersed the hundreds of onlookers for fear of another strike.
vid-lba/jd/dcp

Israel

17 killed at pro-Iran protests across Pakistan

  • Israel and the United States launched their mass aerial campaign on Iran early Saturday, quickly killing the long-ruling supreme leader and prompting outrage in neighouring Pakistan.
  • At least 17 people were killed Sunday across Pakistan as protesters outraged over the death of Iran's supreme leader took to the streets, with some attempting to storm US diplomatic buildings.
  • Israel and the United States launched their mass aerial campaign on Iran early Saturday, quickly killing the long-ruling supreme leader and prompting outrage in neighouring Pakistan.
At least 17 people were killed Sunday across Pakistan as protesters outraged over the death of Iran's supreme leader took to the streets, with some attempting to storm US diplomatic buildings.
In the Pakistani megacity of Karachi, an AFP journalist witnessed hundreds of pro-Iranian protesters trying to enter the US consulate, prompting clashes with police.
At least 10 people had died and over 70 were injured as of Sunday evening, the office of the Karachi police surgeon said.
Earlier, a hospital toll seen by AFP listed nine people as having died from gunshot wounds.
In the northern city of Gilgit, at least seven people were killed and many more injured in clashes with police, rescue official Zaheer Shah told AFP by phone.
Thousands gathered in the streets of the capital Islamabad, many holding photos of late Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, with AFP witnessing police deploy tear gas to disperse crowds near the US embassy.
Israel and the United States launched their mass aerial campaign on Iran early Saturday, quickly killing the long-ruling supreme leader and prompting outrage in neighouring Pakistan.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has close ties with both the United States and Iran, said on Sunday evening that the killing of Khamenei was a "violation" of international law.
"It is an age old convention that the Heads of State/Government should not be targeted," Sharif wrote on X.
The "people of Pakistan join the people of Iran in their hour of grief and sorrow and extend the most sincere condolences on the martyrdom" of Khamenei, he added.
At Sunday's Karachi protest, people chanted slogans against the United States, Israel and their allies.
"We don't need anything in Pakistan that is linked with the US," a protester, Sabir Hussain, told AFP.
Earlier a crowd of young people climbed over the main gate and gained access to the driveway of the consular building, smashing some windows.
Police fired tear gas at the protesters, who dispersed, the AFP journalist saw.
The embassies of the United States and Britain both urged citizens in Pakistan to be cautious in the country.

American 'stooges'

Around 4,000 people took to the streets in the capital Islamabad, where AFP journalists heard overhead gunfire, believed to be to disperse the crowd, and saw tear gas even before the planned start of a rally at 3:00 pm.
Zahra Mumtaz, a 52-year-old housewife from nearby Rawalpindi, said: "Our leader has been martyred, and we are not even allowed to protest."
"The least the government could do is let us express our grief," she told AFP, crying.
"Our leaders are nothing but stooges of the Americans... The Americans and Israelis will have to pay for this."
In the northern city of Skardu, protesters stormed and set fire to a United Nations office, causing black smoke to rise from the building, an AFP reporter saw.
At least three nearby vehicles were completely burned.
Thousands of people also took to the streets in the eastern city of Lahore.
Since the launch of the US-Israeli operations, Prime Minister Sharif has announced several calls with other regional leaders -- whose countries have been targeted by Iranian retaliatory attacks -- and urged restraint.
His statements have notably called the attacks on Iran an Israeli operation -- excluding mention of the major US involvement.
ah-sma-zz/je/des/mlm

US

What future for Iranian leadership after Khamenei's death?

BY FABIEN ZAMORA

  • Iran's political system has procedures for the succession of the supreme leader, and his "removal does not mean the end" for a system with many centres of power and redundancies in place, Razoux told AFP.  He expected a scenario of "continuity of the regime with new rules of the game -- perhaps to the detriment of the clerics, but with the same people in charge". 
  • The killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the ongoing US-Israeli bombing campaign have ushered in a period of uncertainty for the country's leadership.
  • Iran's political system has procedures for the succession of the supreme leader, and his "removal does not mean the end" for a system with many centres of power and redundancies in place, Razoux told AFP.  He expected a scenario of "continuity of the regime with new rules of the game -- perhaps to the detriment of the clerics, but with the same people in charge". 
The killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the ongoing US-Israeli bombing campaign have ushered in a period of uncertainty for the country's leadership.
At the beginning of the air campaign, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to seize power once it was over, having voiced support for mass protests against the clerical leadership that peaked in January before a deadly crackdown.
- Continuity for now - 
Today "the country appears 'tightly controlled'," said Pierre Razoux, director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), after the authorities in recent days closed universities, deployed security forces in cities and cut the internet. 
"Everything is being done to prevent protests. As long as the public is not convinced that the repressive apparatus -- 600,000 Basij (volunteer paramilitary) and 250,000 internal security forces -- has been neutralised, they are unlikely to take to the streets again."
Iran's political system has procedures for the succession of the supreme leader, and his "removal does not mean the end" for a system with many centres of power and redundancies in place, Razoux told AFP. 
He expected a scenario of "continuity of the regime with new rules of the game -- perhaps to the detriment of the clerics, but with the same people in charge". 
Researcher Theo Nencini of Sciences Po Grenoble said: "The entire direction of the regime will depend on the choice of the new supreme leader."
In Venezuela in January, after US forces snatched president Nicolas Maduro, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez took charge with Trump's endorsement and the regime survived in return for concessions to Washington.
French-Iranian sociologist Azadeh Kian speculated to broadcaster Franceinfo that Trump might be "looking to come to an understanding with a more moderate wing of the regime".
Khamenei's killing "could give rise to significant rivalries within the circles of power between the Revolutionary Guards and the civilian leadership," she said, "But for now, they are all working together to keep the system in place".
- The Guards' moment? - 
"The alternative is a takeover by the Pasdaran," the country's ideological army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Razoux said.
While its commander Mohammad Pakpour was killed in Saturday's strikes, the IRGC remains an extremely well-organised force, with considerable influence in Iranian society, politics and the economy. 
"In reality, the rebalancing of power in favour of the Revolutionary Guards has already happened" in recent years, Nencini said. 
"But a transition towards a more militarised regime under their leadership is a possibility -- a more conventional military regime, without the current Shiite religious framework. Still, I find it hard to imagine them doing away with the religious veneer altogether," he added.
- The regular army - 
With a force of 350,000 men, according to the specialist publication Military Balance 2026, Iran's army "does not carry political weight today, but it could still play a role in the future if the military decides to take a political direction different from that of the Guards", Nencini said. 
Razoux said the Iranian army "may hold one of the keys, and its positioning will be crucial -- in relation to the population, the leadership and the Guards alike". 
"There is no indication of its intentions. At the moment it is stretched thin, busy defending the country and trying to limit the damage," he added.
Moreover, in the event of a political shift, the armed forces will "need to demonstrate that they have fulfilled their role and carried out their mission". 
The army could also rally behind another figure, but according to Nencini, there is "no credible political figure offering an alternative among the opposition".
- Fractured opposition - 
The opposition inside Iran is repressed and imprisoned, illustrated by the case of jailed 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi.
Opposition movements in exile have long been divided.
The deposed shah's eldest son, Reza Pahlavi, "is being promoted by Western media" and appears to be gaining in popularity, Nencini said, but his credibility in the eyes of people inside Iran remains unclear.
"There is a spectrum of opponents in Iran who could take action in the future," Kian said, also pointing to the emergence of demands from ethnic minorities such as the Kurds and Baluchis.
But for these groups to carry real weight, they would need to form "a coalition", she said, stressing that these minorities wouldn't accept submission to Pahlavi, who "lacks the structures and institutions necessary to come to power". 
fz/sva/sw/dcp

US

Thousands stranded as Iran conflict shuts Mideast hubs

  • "There haven't been any other crises of this magnitude since Covid," Didier Brechemier, an expert at business consultancy Roland Berger, told AFP.  Even Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not affect the major air hubs of the Middle East through which travellers to destinations in much of Asia almost always transit, he said.
  • The biggest disruption to global air transport since the Covid pandemic snarled travel for a second day on  Sunday, with thousands of flights affected and busy Gulf hubs including Dubai and Doha shuttered as Iran lashed out after US-Israeli strikes.
  • "There haven't been any other crises of this magnitude since Covid," Didier Brechemier, an expert at business consultancy Roland Berger, told AFP.  Even Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not affect the major air hubs of the Middle East through which travellers to destinations in much of Asia almost always transit, he said.
The biggest disruption to global air transport since the Covid pandemic snarled travel for a second day on  Sunday, with thousands of flights affected and busy Gulf hubs including Dubai and Doha shuttered as Iran lashed out after US-Israeli strikes.
Passengers were stranded around the world as airlines sought to reroute around the Middle East, where most countries had slammed their airspace shut as Iran launched retaliatory strikes on the glittering Gulf cities.
Tehran hit both the Dubai International Airport -- the world's busiest for international traffic -- and Kuwait's main airport during its retaliation one day earlier.
Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates had all announced at least partial closures of their skies. 
"There haven't been any other crises of this magnitude since Covid," Didier Brechemier, an expert at business consultancy Roland Berger, told AFP. 
Even Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not affect the major air hubs of the Middle East through which travellers to destinations in much of Asia almost always transit, he said.
Aviation analytics firm Cirium said more than 1,500 flights to the Middle East were cancelled Sunday, more than 40 percent of scheduled traffic.
Flight tracking website FlightAware said more than 2,700 flights had been cancelled globally and more than 12,300 delayed as of 1720 GMT Sunday.
The costs are "already amounting to hundreds of millions of euros in losses for air transport," Didier Arino, CEO of the consulting firm Protourisme, said. 
For some passengers, the flight disruptions went far beyond the annoyance of being stranded.
Italian rapper BigMama said she had been on a flight from Male in the Maldives which was re-routed to a spot in the desert near Dubai -- one of the cities targeted by Iran in its wave of retaliatory strikes. 
"We keep hearing missiles over our heads. I’m terrified," the artist posted in a tearful video on Instagram Saturday.
"We didn't sleep a wink all night," she wrote in a new message Sunday. "We still have no news. We just want to go home."

'Air bridges'

Others were in more philosophical spirits.
"I have got work tomorrow so, if my manager is watching: Johnny, I will be back later this week, hopefully," a traveller stuck at Johannesburg's main international airport told local SABC News after his Emirates flight to London was cancelled.
"I tried .. to book a ticket back with a different provider and the prices are going up every 10 minutes, 20 minutes," he said. 
"I don't know where I am sleeping tonight," one passenger in Cape Town identified only as Farhad, who was trying to return to Germany after a holiday, told the Newzroom Afrika broadcaster.
"The whole world is connecting, and something that happened 10,000 kilometres away is also in Cape Town or Germany or wherever," he said.
Countries including France and Thailand have said they are looking at evacuating citizens from the Middle East. 
Patrice Caradec, president of the French Association of Tour Operators (SETO), told AFP that the goal now is to establish "air bridges" via alternative hubs like Istanbul.
Arino said Tehran's attacks and the impact on air travel dealt a blow to the "soft power" of the Gulf monarchies. 
"What they sell is the security of property and people," he told AFP.
"Dubai was often talked about a bit like Switzerland, so this inevitably tarnishes that image."
Explosions rocked Dubai's Palm Jumeirah man-made island and drone debris caused a fire at the Burj Al Arab ultra-luxury hotel as waves of Iranian missiles targeted the UAE among others on Saturday.
Claudine Schwartz, a 49-year-old French tourist staying at the Royal Atlantis on The Palm, told AFP that she heard explosions and saw plumes of smoke Saturday.
"We were playing night golf and rushed back to the hotel. I saw a fireball coming towards us and at the same time an alert message on our phones telling us to take shelter. We were put on the lowest level of the hotel," she said.
On Sunday they were "confined inside", she said -- but, as Tehran launched new strikes on the region, she said that from the gym, "I could see a large plume of black smoke coming from what I think was a port".
They were registered on a hotline for stranded passengers run by the French foreign ministry, she said, adding: "We're waiting."
burs-ole/jbo/st/yad

US

Iranians grieve, celebrate, worry after Khamenei's killing

  • Khamenei, who had final say on all state matters, had been Iran's supreme leader for nearly four decades.
  • Iranians were experiencing a mix of shock, grief and joy after the death of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Israeli and US strikes extended into a second day Sunday.
  • Khamenei, who had final say on all state matters, had been Iran's supreme leader for nearly four decades.
Iranians were experiencing a mix of shock, grief and joy after the death of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Israeli and US strikes extended into a second day Sunday.
The attacks unleashed on Saturday killed Khamenei and top military leaders and prompted Iranian authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel and across the Gulf. 
At the first reports of Khamenei's death, many Iranians erupted into cheers from apartment buildings in the capital Tehran while others blared car horns and blasted music in the streets.
"We are on the road and celebrating the news," said a woman in her 40s who had left the capital and headed west as strikes continued to pound Tehran.
In a reflection of the continued sense of wariness from Iranians about speaking freely of their rulers, none of the people AFP interviewed were willing to give their full name.
"Last night... people in all neighbourhoods shouted for joy and took to the streets. This joy was while we were in the middle of a missile war," a Tehran resident in her 30s said.
She said Khamenei's hands were stained with blood, and recalled that Iranian security forces crushed mass protests in January. 
"We all realised that there is no way, absolutely no way, to reform this regime except through foreign intervention," she said.
"They have taken the Iranian people hostage."
Others were stunned into silence.
"I am in shock. I cannot believe what happened," said a Tehran resident in his 30s.
Khamenei, who had final say on all state matters, had been Iran's supreme leader for nearly four decades.

Weeks of mourning

Around 5:00 am on Sunday, Iranian state TV announced Khamenei's death, saying he had "fulfilled his lifelong dream" of martyrdom.
Within hours, Iranian mourners dressed in black took to the streets in Tehran's central Enghelab Square.
Some were angry while others wept.
The grieving crowds chanted "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" and demanded revenge as they carried portraits of Khamenei, religious banners and the Iranian flag.
Similar gatherings took place in the southern city of Shiraz, Yazd and Isfahan in central Iran, Tabriz in the northwest and elsewhere, according to images broadcast on state TV.
Iran announced a 40-day mourning period and seven days of public holidays.
As dawn broke, large areas of the usually busy capital were deserted and shops remained shuttered.
There were security checkpoints and police patrolled the streets in numbers that appeared larger than during last year's 12-day war. 
The street lights were switched off on Tehran's main roads Sunday night, and apartments appeared dark, suggesting many people had left the capital.
In northern Tehran, usually lively cafes and restaurants were closed. 
An AFP journalist at the northern Islam Qala border crossing saw the Iranian flag completely lowered, and a black flag raised.
The journalist said the crossing was open and people and trucks were passing through normally.
An Iranian cargo driver said he could not see things turning out well and had been "really worried" since he heard of Khamenei's death.
"The situation right now in our country is not good," the driver, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told AFP.
"I don't know what will happen in the future, but it's not a good future for us Iranians," he said.
"The Americans have destroyed everywhere they've gone in the world," he said, accusing them of wanting to take over Iran's energy and mineral resources.

'Names will change'

US President Donald Trump threatened on Sunday to unleash "force that has never been seen before" and urged Iran's people to rise up and seize power.
Iran's leadership has remained defiant.
President Masoud Pezeshkian described Khamenei's assassination as a "declaration of war" against Muslims, and particularly against Shiites.
Top security chief Ali Larijani announced transition plans and warned Iran would hit Israel and the United States with a force "they have never experienced".
Umut, a director of a mining company, spoke to AFP after travelling overnight and passing through the Razi-Kapikoy border crossing into northeastern Turkey. 
The 45-year-old Iranian had been in Tehran as news of Khamenei's death began filtering through. 
Although video footage showed some residents of Tehran celebrating on their balconies and at their windows, Umut said "there were no protests on the streets", just a rush on fuel stations.
Umut said he was only planning to go home when the situation had died down, "if the streets are safe and there are no explosions at night". 
He did not expect Khamenei's death to usher in a transformation.
"Just the names will change, but I think the regime will stay on," Umut said.
bur/amj/yad

US

Iran strikes send VIP Dubai influencers 'back to reality'

  • British content creator Will Bailey was updating his Instagram and TikTok followers by filming the trails of smoke left by missiles and interceptor rockets in Dubai's skyline.
  • They moved to the UAE expecting a non-stop VIP experience, but instead Dubai's influencers found themselves under a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. 
  • British content creator Will Bailey was updating his Instagram and TikTok followers by filming the trails of smoke left by missiles and interceptor rockets in Dubai's skyline.
They moved to the UAE expecting a non-stop VIP experience, but instead Dubai's influencers found themselves under a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. 
Since early on Saturday, foreigners in the United Arab Emirates have been sharing videos of plumes of smoke rising above the skyscrapers and expressing their shock that the usual haven of stability was under attack.
"OMG!" Israeli wellness influencer Hofit Golan exclaims repeatedly in a video that shows a building near her apartment in flames.
British content creator Will Bailey was updating his Instagram and TikTok followers by filming the trails of smoke left by missiles and interceptor rockets in Dubai's skyline.
"That was metres away from us," he says in a video filmed near the Fairmont hotel, which was hit by a strike on Saturday.
Other influencers were less composed, with France's Maeva Ghennam who, waving her passport around, told viewers she "screamed hysterically" when she heard a strike.
"France, protect us!" said Ghennam, who rose to fame via reality television.
Some viewers have criticised the "total disconnect" of the "bling-bling world" from the geopolitical realities of the Middle East, where Iran was retaliating for a massive wave of US-Israeli attacks.
"We're seeing a 'back-to-reality' moment for influencers who settled" in Dubai, according to journalist Emma Ferey, whose 2024 novel "Emirage" chronicles the Emirati capital's influencer scene.
According to Ferey, in this "under-informed world... everything seems easy".
Now, "the bubble is starting to burst", she said.

'Talking politics'

On Sunday, the French embassy in the UAE reiterated to its nationals in the country that it was not possible to leave because Emirati airspace remained closed until further notice.
It urged French citizens there to "strictly follow the safety instructions: stay at home (and) keep away from windows, doors and open areas".
Dubai has in recent years become a hive of influencers, entrepreneurs and millionaires, enticed by the business-friendly and income tax-free city and the lavish lifestyles on offer.
The city of nearly four million inhabitants -- 90 percent of whom are foreigners -- also hosts one of the busiest airports in the world.
It appeared to have been hit on Saturday, with officials saying four staff were injured and a concourse damaged during "an incident".
In a video posted on Saturday on a beach full of sunbathers, real estate consultant Deepti Mallik struck a reassuring tone, telling viewers that there is "nothing to be scared of".
"I feel this country takes the security of its residents and tourists very seriously," she said.
Ferey said "You can sense anxiety among influencers... even though they know perfectly well that talking politics -- or worse, geopolitics -- means risking losing followers or being hit by a wave of harassment".
Content creators are "contractually bound" to brands, which obliges them to keep posting no matter what, according to the journalist.
"Even if it's just for shampoo, the video has to go out. It's this disconnect that can come across as indecent in the eyes of the public -- to keep making money while the world is burning."
Benjamin Samat, a French influencer living in Dubai, took to Instagram to lash out at "those who on social media are rejoicing that the French are going through this".
Samat added that he wouldn't want "anyone to be woken up by missiles exploding in the sky in the middle of the night".
bur-jlo-jri/vmt/cc/dcp

sanction

Belgium seizes Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker

BY UMBERTO BACCHI

  • Sanctions aimed at limiting Moscow's revenues used to pursue its war have shut out many tankers carrying Russian oil from Western insurance and shipping systems.
  • Belgium said Sunday its special forces had boarded and seized an oil tanker from the "shadow fleet" Russia uses to circumvent Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, in an overnight operation.
  • Sanctions aimed at limiting Moscow's revenues used to pursue its war have shut out many tankers carrying Russian oil from Western insurance and shipping systems.
Belgium said Sunday its special forces had boarded and seized an oil tanker from the "shadow fleet" Russia uses to circumvent Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, in an overnight operation.
The Belgian government said the vessel was intercepted in the North Sea, with aerial support from French military helicopters.
Defence Minister Theo Francken said the tanker was escorted to the port of Zeebrugge after being intercepted in Belgium's exclusive economic zone.
Prosecutors identified the ship, which was said to be on its way back to Russia, as the "Ethera". 
A spokeswoman for the Belgian federal prosecutor's office said the ship captain, a Russian national, was being questioned by investigators. 
The tanker flew the flag of Guinea, but an on-board inspection confirmed suspicions that it was sailing under a false flag, the office said, adding that authorities have opened a criminal investigation.  
"If a ship sails under a false flag, this means that it does not comply with several international regulations," the statement added. 
French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed on X that his country's naval forces assisted in the operation, calling it a "major blow" to Russia's so-called "shadow fleet".
Russia has used a flotilla of ageing tankers of opaque ownership to get around restrictions on its lucrative crude exports imposed over its 2022 all-out invasion of Ukraine.
The Belgian defence ministry said the seized tanker was on the European Union's sanctions list. The EU has blacklisted hundreds of vessels in a bid to sap Moscow's war chest. 
"Sanctions only matter if they are enforced. Today, we enforced them," Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot, who is also Belgium's deputy prime minister, said on X.

'Bad guys'

The operation was carried out alongside Belgium's G7, Nordic and Baltic partners and in coordination with France, he added. 
"Great job Belgium stopping these bad guys," the US ambassador to the country, Bill White, commented on social media. 
France provided air support with two NH90 helicopters, the defence ministry said. 
Footage of the operation posted online by Macron showed Belgian forces rappelling down from the aircraft to board the ship.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever on social media congratulated his country's armed forces on their "professional and decisive conduct" and thanked France for its "essential support". 
Russia's embassy in Belgium said it had not been officially notified of the tanker's detention, nor informed about the nationality of its crew.
"The embassy is currently taking the necessary steps to determine whether there are Russian citizens on board and to ensure their legal rights if confirmed," it said in a Telegram post.
Sanctions aimed at limiting Moscow's revenues used to pursue its war have shut out many tankers carrying Russian oil from Western insurance and shipping systems.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Belgium's "strong action against Moscow's floating purse" and thanked France for supporting the operation.
"This particular vessel has long been under US, EU, and UK sanctions, but nonetheless continued to illegally transport Russian oil using a false flag and forged documents," he wrote on X.
In February, it was revealed that two employees of a Russian private security company were aboard another suspected Russian "shadow fleet" tanker seized by France in September. 
The two men were employed by Moran Security Group, a Russian private security company, and were tasked with monitoring the crew and gathering intelligence, a source with knowledge of the matter told AFP.
French forces boarded another suspected Russian tanker, the Grinch, in January. 
But the ship was later let go after its owner paid a multi-million-euro fine, something an analyst said highlighted legal difficulties related to such operations. 
"Belgium deserves credit. But the harder question is what happens next," said Max Meizlish, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington-based think tank. 
"European governments keep hitting the same wall: they have the will to board these ships, but not always the legal tools to keep them," he said.
"Europe needs to close the legal gap that keeps turning interdictions into mere delays for the shadow fleet." 
ub/rmb

conflict

Tel Aviv residents say ready to withstand more Iranian attacks

BY ALICE CHANCELLOR

  • - 'Always have hope' - While in Tel Aviv on Sunday, AFP journalists heard sirens signalling an incoming missile attack from Iran, prompting dozens of people nearby to run for cover in a nearby shelter.
  • Shattered glass lay strewn across the streets of a residential area of Tel Aviv on Sunday, the day after an Iranian missile strike left one woman dead, but residents insisted they could withstand further attacks.
  • - 'Always have hope' - While in Tel Aviv on Sunday, AFP journalists heard sirens signalling an incoming missile attack from Iran, prompting dozens of people nearby to run for cover in a nearby shelter.
Shattered glass lay strewn across the streets of a residential area of Tel Aviv on Sunday, the day after an Iranian missile strike left one woman dead, but residents insisted they could withstand further attacks.
The US and Israel launched a wave of strikes against Iran on Saturday, sparking a rapid retaliation from Tehran which continued to send people running to shelters under wailing sirens and overhead blasts on Sunday.
At the site of Saturday's missile strike, the shell of a crumpled apartment building with its windows blown out overshadowed a huge crater, where heavy machinery and teams in high visibility vests were working to clear the rubble.
Wires and twisted metal hung from the building and charred tree trunks lay on the ground.
More than twelve hours after the hit, the area still smelled faintly of burning.
Further down the leafy street, rows of apartment blocks stood with their windows shattered.
Around 100 metres (yards) from the blast site, the apartment of Ariel, a 32-year-old finance worker, lay littered with debris from the impact.
"It's not nice to see your home broken, all my memories are here. But we know that in the war with all the bombs, it can happen," he told AFP.
"It's not nice, but it's OK, we'll be strong, we continue."
Such scenes of devastation are fresh in the memories of all Israelis, but particularly residents of the Tel Aviv area, which was badly hit during the previous confrontation between the two arch-foes last June.
Israel's sophisticated air defence systems have shot down many missiles fired from Iran, but Saturday's strike served as a stark reminder that interceptors do not provide guaranteed protection.
"We're not scared, we're used to it," Ariel explained, saying he hoped that Israel was "going to win and change the situation in the Middle East because we need that this was worth it, all the apartments, all the civilians hurt".
Israel's Magen David Adom emergency service said a woman was killed and at least 21 were injured on Saturday night in the Tel Aviv area.

'Always have hope'

While in Tel Aviv on Sunday, AFP journalists heard sirens signalling an incoming missile attack from Iran, prompting dozens of people nearby to run for cover in a nearby shelter.
While underground, 56-year-old Gil, a local resident, recalled how he had performed the same grim routine the night before.
"We were here and we heard a big noise, a big boom, and we realised it's something in the neighbourhood," he told AFP.
"We started getting some notifications from people staying at their homes that it had happened and there was glass all over and when we went out, it smelled like something was on fire and it was a bit scary."
But all the Israelis AFP spoke to expressed resilience, saying that seeking cover from missile attacks was something that they had grown used to.
They may need to endure it for some time, after Iran's Revolutionary Guards vowed to launch the "most ferocious" operation in history following the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday.
"They want to bring it on, then bring it on," said 23-year-old Uri inside the Tel Aviv bomb shelter.
"You never get used to it, but I think we've toughened up and we understand there is no choice," he told AFP.
"If we have to go 30 times... for tomorrow to be better, we'll do it each time because we always have hope."
acc/jd/dcp

Israel

9 killed in pro-Iran protest at US consulate in Pakistan's Karachi

  • "We don't need anything in Pakistan that is linked with the US," a protester, Sabir Hussain, told AFP. "Our government and our forces are supporting the USA." The protesters chanted slogans against the United States, Israel and their allies.
  • At least nine people were killed during pro-Iran protests at the United States consulate in the Pakistani megacity of Karachi on Sunday, according to a hospital toll seen by AFP. Hundreds of pro-Iranian protesters tried to storm the consulate following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, an AFP journalist saw.
  • "We don't need anything in Pakistan that is linked with the US," a protester, Sabir Hussain, told AFP. "Our government and our forces are supporting the USA." The protesters chanted slogans against the United States, Israel and their allies.
At least nine people were killed during pro-Iran protests at the United States consulate in the Pakistani megacity of Karachi on Sunday, according to a hospital toll seen by AFP.
Hundreds of pro-Iranian protesters tried to storm the consulate following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, an AFP journalist saw.
Nine people died from gunshot wounds, according to the hospital record. Over 30 more were injured.
It was unclear as of Sunday evening who had fired the shots.
The chief minister of Sindh province, where Karachi is the capital, said he had ordered a probe into the deaths.
Syed Murad Ali Shah "instructed the authorities to conduct a transparent and impartial investigation to establish the facts", a statement said.
AFP journalists said clashes between police and protesters were still ongoing outside the consulate at 3:00 pm local time (1000 GMT).
"We don't need anything in Pakistan that is linked with the US," a protester, Sabir Hussain, told AFP.
"Our government and our forces are supporting the USA."
The protesters chanted slogans against the United States, Israel and their allies.
Earlier a crowd of young people climbed over the main gate and gained access to the driveway of the consular building, smashing some windows.
Police fired tear gas at the protesters, who dispersed, the AFP journalist saw.
In a video circulating on social media, a young demonstrator could be heard saying: "We need to remain united. No power can stop us."
"We are setting the American consulate in Karachi on fire. God willing, we are avenging the killing of our leader," another protester said as he filmed others trying to start a blaze.

American 'stooges'

Elsewhere in Pakistan, around 4,000 people took to the streets in the capital Islamabad, where AFP journalists heard overhead gunfire, believed to be to disperse the crowd, and saw tear gas even before the planned start of a rally at 3:00 pm.
Zahra Mumtaz, a 52-year-old housewife from nearby Rawalpindi, said: "Our leader has been martyred, and we are not even allowed to protest."
"The least the government could do is let us express our grief," she told AFP, crying.
"Our leaders are nothing but stooges of the Americans... The Americans and Israelis will have to pay for this."
In the northern city of Skardu, protesters stormed and set fire to a United Nations office, causing black smoke to rise from the building, an AFP reporter saw.
At least three nearby vehicles were completely burned.
Thousands of people also took to the streets in the eastern city of Lahore.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Sunday evening that the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a "violation" of international law.
The "people of Pakistan join the people of Iran in their hour of grief and sorrow and extend the most sincere condolences on the martyrdom" of Khamenei, he wrote on X.
"Pakistan also expresses concern over violation of the norms of international law," he added.
The embassies of the United States and Britain both urged citizens in Pakistan to be cautious in the country.
ah-sma-zz/je/mjw

Israel

Russia loses key ally leader as Putin slams Khamenei 'cynical' killing

  • But as Washington and Israel launched waves of air strikes Saturday that killed the Islamic republic's longtime supreme leader Khamenei, Russia saw another key ally -- after the leaders of Syria and Venezuela -- toppled.
  • Bashar al-Assad, Nicolas Maduro and now Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
  • But as Washington and Israel launched waves of air strikes Saturday that killed the Islamic republic's longtime supreme leader Khamenei, Russia saw another key ally -- after the leaders of Syria and Venezuela -- toppled.
Bashar al-Assad, Nicolas Maduro and now Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the last 18 months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost several key foreign allies -- and there is little that the Kremlin, bogged down in Ukraine, can do about it.
Tehran has stood by as one of Russia's closest backers throughout Moscow's four-year offensive and the Kremlin had earlier called for restraint amid reports of imminent US military action in Iran. 
But as Washington and Israel launched waves of air strikes Saturday that killed the Islamic republic's longtime supreme leader Khamenei, Russia saw another key ally -- after the leaders of Syria and Venezuela -- toppled.
In January, US President Donald Trump ordered an attack in which US forces snatched Venezuela's leftist leader Maduro.
Washington has also drawn close to Syria's new authorities since the fall of al-Assad in late 2024 that dealt a major blow to Russia's influence in the region.
Russia's "Vladimir Putin will find himself in a difficult position," Alexander Baunov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said on social media.
"Twice in two months, Putin has failed to fulfill the role of savior, at least of the life of an allied dictator. And the killer is his friend Trump," Baunov wrote.
In 2025, replying to AFP's question, Putin said he did "not even wish to discuss" the idea Israel might assassinate Iran's Khamenei.

'Domino of deposed dictators'

When the killing was confirmed by Iranian state television on Sunday, the Kremlin published a message with condolences that Putin had sent to Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian.
The Russian leader praised Khamenei as "an outstanding statesman" and said his "assassination" was "carried out in a cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law".
But the Russian authorities have not officially announced any concrete assistance to Tehran.
A day before, amid the ongoing US and Israeli strikes, it was Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi who phoned Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, according to Moscow's read-out of the call.
Lavrov condemned the attack and pledged Russia's readiness "to facilitate the search for peaceful solutions based on international law, mutual respect, and a balance of interests".
There was no mention, however, of any military aid despite a strategic partnership treaty aimed at bolstering ties -- including in military matters -- both countries signed in 2025.
Besides the loss of its key ally Khamenei, the consequences for Moscow of the ongoing conflict in Iran were still difficult to assess.
Russian lawmaker Anatoly Wasserman, interviewed by the newspaper MK.ru, suggested that in the short term, the war could benefit Russia if it leads to a sharp rise in oil prices -- boosting key revenues for its state coffers that fund its invasion of Ukraine.
In the longer term, Wasserman predicted "major problems" for the United States and Israel if the Iranian authorities "resist" the strikes.
For now, Ukraine, who repeatedly accused Iran of providing Moscow with weapons including the Shahed drones and short-range missiles, rejoiced at what it said was a sign Russia's waning influence.
"Russia is not a reliable ally even for those who rely heavily on it," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said on social media on Sunday.
"The domino of deposed dictators must continue, and Putin's fall one day is inevitable," Sybiga said.
bur-rco-mmp/giv

Israel

OPEC+ hikes oil production by more than expected following outbreak of Iran war

BY POL-MALO LE BRIS

  • Leon pointed to the possibility that Iran could target the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around nearly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil supplies, in retaliation.
  • Key members of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced a greater-than-expected increase to production quotas on Sunday following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered retaliation by Tehran across the Middle East. 
  • Leon pointed to the possibility that Iran could target the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around nearly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil supplies, in retaliation.
Key members of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced a greater-than-expected increase to production quotas on Sunday following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered retaliation by Tehran across the Middle East. 
The eight-strong V8 (Voluntary Eight) group in the alliance, which includes top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia -- as well as several Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran's missile strikes -- said they had agreed a "production adjustment" of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd).
"This adjustment will be implemented in April," they said in a statement.
The text did not mention the outbreak of the Iran conflict, instead citing "a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals" as their reasons for the increase.
Before the weekend's meeting, experts had forecast a more modest increase of 137,000 bpd. 
But Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, warned the agreed increase was potentially not large enough to prevent the Iran conflict causing a spike in oil prices when trading opens on Monday.
Leon pointed to the possibility that Iran could target the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around nearly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil supplies, in retaliation.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have contacted ships to announce the strait was closed. On Sunday, Iranian state TV said an oil tanker in the strait was struck while attempting to "illegally" pass through and was sinking, showing footage of a burning tanker at sea.
"If oil cannot move through Hormuz, an extra 206,000 barrels per day does very little to ease the market," Leon said, arguing that "logistics and transit risk matter more than production targets right now".
The OPEC+ move "is unlikely to calm markets", he said.
"Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output."

'Nightmare scenario'

Besides Russia and Saudi Arabia, the V8 group within OPEC+ includes Kuwait, Oman, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, all of which were targeted by Iranian attacks for a second day on Sunday.
Algeria and Kazakhstan are also part of the group.
Another analyst, Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said that, with the fear of incoming missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, insurers cancelling contracts for vessels wanting to go through there, and jammed electronic signalling in the Gulf region, commercial shippers were scared.
They are "starting to act as if the route is compromised", he said.
"A full closure for more than a few days is the nightmare scenario," he said.
A blockage of the strait could mean oil prices leaping from around $72 before the war to $120 to $150 a barrel when trading starts on Monday, he said, based on industry estimates.
He and other analysts pointed to land pipelines Saudi Arabia and the UAE could use to get around shipping through the strait, but noted that would still leave a shortfall of some eight million to 10 million bpd on the market.
"Those are meaningful pressure valves, but they are not a replacement for the full seaborne flow," Innes said.
While higher prices might seem a boon for OPEC+ countries, it in fact carries the risk of increasing competition from producers outside the cartel, such as the United States, Canada and Brazil.
Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi told AFP that the cartel might "prefer prices of $80-90, but around $70 per barrel is the ideal price level" to cut the incentive for more investment by those rival producers.
He added that Russian production has been on a downward trend since November, leaving analysts to think that it was at its maximum output.
Leon, of Rystad Energy, said the only OPEC+ members "who can really boost their production are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and, to a lesser degree, Kuwait and Iraq".
pml/rmb/giv

US

Afghanistan warns Iran war will impact whole region

  • "The recent political and security developments in the region have created unprecedented tensions that will have long-term negative effects on the entire region," foreign ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi wrote on X. "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan expresses its deep regret over the attack on Iran launched by Israel and the United States, and expanded by Iran to target the Gulf countries," he added.
  • Afghanistan said on Sunday that the war in neighbouring Iran would negatively impact the whole region and expressed "deep regret" over the violence flaring in multiple countries.
  • "The recent political and security developments in the region have created unprecedented tensions that will have long-term negative effects on the entire region," foreign ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi wrote on X. "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan expresses its deep regret over the attack on Iran launched by Israel and the United States, and expanded by Iran to target the Gulf countries," he added.
Afghanistan said on Sunday that the war in neighbouring Iran would negatively impact the whole region and expressed "deep regret" over the violence flaring in multiple countries.
The Iranian flag was lowered to half-mast at the country's embassy in Kabul, an AFP journalist said, and a black cloth hung over the entrance following the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli attack.
"The recent political and security developments in the region have created unprecedented tensions that will have long-term negative effects on the entire region," foreign ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi wrote on X.
"The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan expresses its deep regret over the attack on Iran launched by Israel and the United States, and expanded by Iran to target the Gulf countries," he added.
Balkhi condemned "the killing of innocent civilians" and called for diplomacy "preventing further escalation of the conflict".
Iran shares a more than 900-kilometre (560-mile) border with Afghanistan and the countries have considerable economic ties.
At the Islam Qala border crossing on Sunday, an AFP journalist said it remained open and a black flag had replaced the Iranian standard.
strs-qb/rsc/mjw

Israel

More flights cancelled as Iran conflict shuts Mideast hubs

  • Flight tracking site FlightAware said that more than 6,700 flights had been delayed and 1900 cancelled globally as of 1000 GMT Sunday, on top of thousands the day before.
  • The biggest disruption to global air transport since the Covid pandemic continued Sunday, with thousands of flights affected and busy Middle Eastern hubs including Dubai and Doha shuttered as Iran lashed out after US-Israeli strikes.
  • Flight tracking site FlightAware said that more than 6,700 flights had been delayed and 1900 cancelled globally as of 1000 GMT Sunday, on top of thousands the day before.
The biggest disruption to global air transport since the Covid pandemic continued Sunday, with thousands of flights affected and busy Middle Eastern hubs including Dubai and Doha shuttered as Iran lashed out after US-Israeli strikes.
Israel and Iran traded new attacks Sunday, after Tehran hit both the Dubai International Airport -- the world's busiest for international traffic -- and Kuwait's main airport during its retaliatory strikes one day earlier. 
Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates had all announced at least partial closures of their skies Saturday after the US and Israel attacked Iran, bringing civilian air traffic over the Middle East to an abrupt halt. 
Notable airlines that cancelled services included Emirates, Etihad, Air France, British Airways, Air India, Turkish Airlines, and Lufthansa.
Flight tracking site FlightAware said that more than 6,700 flights had been delayed and 1900 cancelled globally as of 1000 GMT Sunday, on top of thousands the day before.

Airspace closures

Iran swiftly closed its airspace as the strikes began "until further notice", said the spokesman of Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation, quoted by the Tasnim news agency.
Israel also closed its airspace to civilian flights, Transport Minister Miri Regev announced.
Qatar's civil aviation authority said it had temporarily closed the Gulf state's airspace.
Iraq shut down airspace, state media said. 
The United Arab Emirates said it was closing its skies "partially and temporarily".
Syria closed part of its airspace in the south along the border with Israel for 12 hours, the Civil Aviation Authority said.
Jordan's air force was conducting drills to "defend the kingdom's skies", its military said.
Kuwait closed its airspace.

Middle East and North Africa airlines

Gulf carriers Emirates and Etihad cancelled 38 percent and 30 percent of their flights respectively, Cirium said.
Qatar Airways suspended all flights from Doha. It cancelled 41 percent of total flights, according to aviation analytics company Cirium.
Syria Air, the country's national carrier, cancelled all flights until further notice.
Egypt's national airline, EgyptAir, announced the suspension of its flights to cities across the Middle East, including Dubai, Doha, Manama, Abu Dhabi, Beirut and Baghdad among others. 

European airlines

Russia's air transport authority Rosaviatsia said all commercial flights to Israel and Iran were cancelled "until further notice". 
Turkish Airlines cancelled flights to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Jordan until March 2.
Air France cancelled its Dubai, Riyadh, Beirut and Tel Aviv flights until Sunday, extending its earlier suspension. 
British Airways said it was not flying to Tel Aviv and Bahrain until March 4, and cancelled flights to the Jordanian capital Amman on Saturday.
Swiss International Air Lines suspended flights to and from Tel Aviv until March 7, and cancelled flights from Zurich to Dubai scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.
Germany's Lufthansa, which comprises Swiss and ITA Airways, cancelled its flights to and from Tel Aviv, Beirut, Amman, Erbil and Tehran until March 7. 
The airline group and its subsidiaries suspended flights to and from Dubai and Abu Dhabi until Sunday.

North America airlines

Delta Air Lines suspended New York–Tel Aviv flights until Sunday.
American Airlines "temporarily suspended" Doha-Philadelphia flights.
United flights to Tel Aviv are cancelled until Monday, and flights to Dubai until Sunday.
Air Canada said it cancelled flights from Canada to Israel until March 8 and to Dubai until March 3.

Asia-Pacific airlines

India's two largest private carriers IndiGo and Air India suspended flights to all destinations in the Middle East.
Pakistan International Airlines, the flag carrier of the country that borders Iran, said it had suspended flights to the UAE, Bahrain, Doha and Kuwait.
Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific suspended flights to Dubai and Riyadh.
Garuda Indonesia, Indonesia's flag carrier, temporarily suspended flights to and from Doha "until further notice", the company said in a statement Sunday.
Singapore Airlines and Singapore's Scoot cancelled six flight routes in the region until the end of Sunday, local media reported.
Philippine Airlines flights from Manila to Doha, Riyadh to Manila, and Dubai to Manila were cancelled on Saturday, as well as one Doha-Manila flight on Sunday.
Other major airlines including Australia's Qantas and Japan's All Nippon Airways did not announce any flight cancellations. 

Africa airlines

Ethiopian Airlines cancelled its flights to Amman, Tel Aviv, Dammam, and Beirut. 
Kenya Airways has suspended its flights to Dubai and Sharjah until further notice. 
burs-sbk/st

US

Pro-Iran protesters try to storm US missions in Pakistan, Iraq

  • - Khamenei death 'hurt us' - In Baghdad, hundreds of Iraqis, many dressed in black, attempted to storm the compound housing the American embassy on Sunday despite a heavy security deployment.
  • Pro-Iranian protesters angered by the death of Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei tried to storm the US consulate in Pakistan's Karachi on Sunday, leaving eight dead, and the fortified Green Zone hosting Washington's embassy in the Iraqi capital Baghdad.
  • - Khamenei death 'hurt us' - In Baghdad, hundreds of Iraqis, many dressed in black, attempted to storm the compound housing the American embassy on Sunday despite a heavy security deployment.
Pro-Iranian protesters angered by the death of Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei tried to storm the US consulate in Pakistan's Karachi on Sunday, leaving eight dead, and the fortified Green Zone hosting Washington's embassy in the Iraqi capital Baghdad.
Iranian state media confirmed the death of Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader since 1989 and sworn enemy of the West, on Sunday, after the opening salvo of a massive US and Israeli attack.
In the Pakistani megacity of Karachi, hundreds of pro-Iranian protesters tried to enter the US mission, an AFP journalist saw.
At least eight people were killed in the protests and at least 20 were injured, Muhammad Amin, a spokesman for the Edhi Foundation rescue service said, adding most had bullet wounds.
A crowd of young people climbed over the main gate and gained access to the driveway of the consular building, smashing some windows.
Police fired tear gas at the protesters who dispersed.
Videos on social media showed youngsters smashing the windows of the main building of the consulate as the American flag could be seen flying over the compound, whose perimeter is topped with barbed wire.
Thousands of people were also taking to the streets in the eastern city of Lahore and in northern Skardu, with a demonstration expected in the afternoon near the diplomatic enclave housing the US embassy in the capital Islamabad.

Khamenei death 'hurt us'

In Baghdad, hundreds of Iraqis, many dressed in black, attempted to storm the compound housing the American embassy on Sunday despite a heavy security deployment.
Ali, a masked protester, told AFP "the martyrdom of Sayyed Ali Khamenei has hurt us".
"We are here because we want the withdrawal of the occupying American forces from Iraq," he said, referring to US-led coalition troops who have recently reduced their presence and are now mostly stationed in northern Iraq.
Protesters, who had gathered in the Iraqi capital since early Sunday, hurled stones at security forces, who responded with tear gas.
A security source told AFP earlier that "their attempts have been thwarted so far, but they keep trying".
In Indian-administered Kashmir, several thousand Shia Muslims joined street demonstrations in the main city Srinagar.
Protesters holding red, black, and yellow flags converged on the main square.
Many of them chanted anti-Israel and anti-US slogans during the emotionally charged but largely peaceful gathering.
"This day we are all very heavy-hearted. We are mourning our beloved leader who was martyred," Syed Towfeeq, 40, told AFP.
"We all have a message for the (US President Donald) Trump... We will always stand against your oppression."
Similar protests were held in other places across Kashmir and other parts of India with a sizeable Shia Muslim presence.
burs/jfx/mjw

US

Latest developments in Iran: US and Israeli strikes, death of Khamenei

  • - Iran leader killed - Iranian state television reported Khamenei's death in the early hours of Sunday, broadcasting archive images with a black banner.
  • Iranian state television confirmed the death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday, after US President Donald Trump said he had been killed.
  • - Iran leader killed - Iranian state television reported Khamenei's death in the early hours of Sunday, broadcasting archive images with a black banner.
Iranian state television confirmed the death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday, after US President Donald Trump said he had been killed.
The announcement came after the United States and Israel started launching waves of strikes Saturday against targets in Iran, sparking swift retaliation by the Islamic republic.
Here are the latest developments.

Iran leader killed

Iranian state television reported Khamenei's death in the early hours of Sunday, broadcasting archive images with a black banner.
Iranian media also reported the deaths of his daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter.
"Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead," Trump had said hours earlier on his Truth Social platform.
"Heavy and pinpoint bombing... will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST", Trump wrote.
He later warned Iran of force "never been seen before" after he said they country indicated it was going to strike back "harder than they have ever hit."
"THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform early Sunday.
Iranian state television announced a 40-day mourning period and seven public holidays following the ayatollah's death.
The country's judiciary confirmed Sunday that the chief of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Pakpour, and another top security adviser, Ali Shamkhani were also "martyred" in the strikes.
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said the campaign sent a message to those who would do harm to Americans: "We will hunt you down and we will kill you."
Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's late shah, hailed the killing of Khamenei, saying the Islamic republic was entering the "dustbin of history".
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and two top other officials will lead the country in a transitional period following the death of Khamenei, state television reported.
The joint US-Israeli operation began earlier on Saturday with smoke rising over Tehran after strikes that Israel said were pre-emptive.
Shortly after, Trump announced US combat operations, with the goal of "eliminating imminent threats".
Israel's military said it targeted multiple sites where senior Iranian officials had gathered in Tehran, and launched strikes against Iranian missile launchers.
It said 200 fighter jets had taken part in the "extensive attack", hitting more than 500 targets.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks killed senior Iranian officials and warned that thousands more targets would be struck in the coming days.
The Iranian judiciary said 108 people died in a strike on a girls' school in Minab, citing a provincial official who blamed Israel.
AFP was unable to access the location to verify the toll or the circumstances surrounding the incident.
A new series of powerful blasts were heard Sunday in Tehran, AFP journalists in the Iranian capital reported. The source of the blasts was not immediately clear. 

Missile, drone wave

In response to the US and Israeli attacks, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and other American bases in the Gulf on Saturday, after launching a first wave of missile and drone attacks at Israel.
Israel's Magen David Adom emergency service said a woman was killed and at least 21 were injured in the Tel Aviv area.
The Israeli military said it deployed search and rescue teams to multiple locations across the country following reports of fallen projectiles.
After Khamenei's death, the Guards said Sunday they would launch the "most ferocious" operation in history against Israel and US military bases.
AFP reporters heard blasts across the Gulf cities of Dubai, Doha and Manama on Sunday morning after a day of Iranian retaliatory strikes.
Thick black smoke could be seen rising on the clear morning horizon in the south of Doha.

Gulf explosions, strait closed

Explosions had been reported across the Gulf region a day earlier following the strikes.
The United Arab Emirates said that two people were killed in Abu Dhabi, including a Pakistani civilian.
The country's defence ministry said that 137 missiles and 209 drones were fired at its territory.
Witnesses in Dubai said they heard an explosion and saw missiles streak across the sky. Others told AFP they heard an explosion and saw smoke rising from man-made island The Palm. Four people were injured.
AFP correspondents heard loud explosions in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
Qatar's defence ministry said it had intercepted several missile attacks targeting the Gulf state.
Two people were killed in air strikes on an Iraqi military base housing the powerful pro-Iran group Kataeb Hezbollah, which threatened the US with a response.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards also moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world's oil and gas passes.

Allied support, warnings

The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting over the fighting, with Iran's envoy accusing the US and Israel of committing a possible "war crime" by attacking civilians.
UN chief Antonio Guterres said military action in the Middle East "carries the risk of igniting a chain of events that no one can control".
Oman's foreign minister, who has been mediating talks between Tehran and Washington, said he was "dismayed" by the violence.
The European Union said developments in Iran were "perilous".
Gulf states condemned Iran's "cowardly" attacks in a joint statement read by Bahrain's ambassador during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.
Russia slammed the US-Israeli strikes as a "dangerous adventure" that could spark regional "catastrophe".
Another Iranian ally, Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group, called on countries and people in the region to stand against Israel and the US.

Airspace closures, flights nixed

Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, the UAE and Israel all closed their airspaces to civilian traffic, at least in part, and multiple airlines cancelled flights to the Middle East. 
Russia cancelled commercial flights to both Iran and Israel "until further notice".
jfx/amj/sst/lga

US

Iran leader Khamenei killed in massive US and Israeli attack

BY AFP'S TEAMS IN TEHRAN. JERUSALEM AND PALM BEACH, FLORIDA

  • Hailing the reported demise of Khamenei, only the second supreme leader of the cleric-run state after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Pahlavi said, "With his death, the Islamic Republic has effectively come to an end and will soon be consigned to the dustbin of history."
  • Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader since 1989 and sworn enemy of the West, was killed in the opening salvo of a massive US and Israeli attack, sparking a new wave of retaliatory missile strikes from Tehran on Sunday.
  • Hailing the reported demise of Khamenei, only the second supreme leader of the cleric-run state after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Pahlavi said, "With his death, the Islamic Republic has effectively come to an end and will soon be consigned to the dustbin of history."
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader since 1989 and sworn enemy of the West, was killed in the opening salvo of a massive US and Israeli attack, sparking a new wave of retaliatory missile strikes from Tehran on Sunday.
Iranian state television confirmed Khamenei's death early Sunday, hours after President Donald Trump announced the killing of the 86-year-old cleric he described as "one of the most evil people in History".
Iran's Revolutionary Guards vowed to launch the "most ferocious" operation in history against Israel and US bases, which are located in Gulf countries that were already counting the cost of an unprecedented series of deadly Iranian strikes. 
Fresh explosions were heard in Doha, Dubai and Manama on Sunday, according to AFP journalists, as warning sirens sounded in central Israel with the military saying it was responding to Iranian missile fire.
Iran's state broadcaster said 27 US bases in the region, as well as Israel's military headquarters and a defence industries complex in Tel Aviv, were among the targets in a new wave of strikes.
Trump threatened that any retaliation from Tehran will lead to Iran being hit with a force that has "never been seen before".
He had earlier vowed no let-up in the strikes until the fall of the Islamic republic and urged security forces to stand down.
"This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country," Trump said in a statement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also told Iranians that "this is your time to join forces, to overthrow the regime and to secure your future."
In Tehran, cheers could be heard on Tehran's streets after reports first emerged from Israel of the death of Khamenei, as plumes of black smoke hovered over the district where he usually resides, witnesses told AFP.
Later in Tehran's Enghlab square, thousands of mourners, dressed mostly in black and waving Iran's flag, chanted "death to America", according AFP journalists. 

'Unforgettable lesson'

In Iran, the Red Crescent said on Saturday strikes had left 201 people dead and injured hundreds more.
Iran's judiciary confirmed that Ali Shamkhani, a top advisor to Khamenei, and the head of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Pakpour, were both killed.
One prominent survivor, Ali Larijani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, vowed defiance.
"The brave soldiers and the great nation of Iran will teach an unforgettable lesson to the international oppressors," he said.
Iran's parliament speaker also said that Tehran was prepared and had "considered all scenarios". 
Trump and Netanyahu have "crossed our red lines" and "will suffer the consequences," said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in a video carried on state TV.
Iran intially responded to the Israel-US attack with a flurry of missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, killing at least two people in Abu Dhabi and another in Tel Aviv, before following up with a new wave after state media confirmed Khamenei's death.

Question on succession

Iran had already seen intense speculation on a successor to Khamenei, given his age. Upon his death, many observers expected greater power for the Revolutionary Guards, which are deeply entrenched in the Iranian economy.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and two top other officials would lead Iran in the transitional period following Khamenei's death, state television reported on Sunday.
Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late pro-Western shah deposed in the 1979 Islamic revolution, said that any successor within the system would be illegitimate.
Hailing the reported demise of Khamenei, only the second supreme leader of the cleric-run state after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Pahlavi said, "With his death, the Islamic Republic has effectively come to an end and will soon be consigned to the dustbin of history."
Pahlavi, who has spent most of his life in exile near Washington, has presented himself as a transitional figure to a secular democracy, but he does not enjoy support from all the opposition. 

Strikes across Iran

The Iranian judiciary said one strike that hit a school in the south killed 108 people, although AFP was unable to access the site to verify the toll or the circumstances surrounding the incident.
Meanwhile in Israel, city streets stood deserted as residents took cover in shelters while the blasts of intercepted Iranian missiles reverberated overhead.
No casualties were reported in the latest round of strikes, but Israeli emergency services said that an Iranian missile strike killed a woman in the Tel Aviv area and that some 20 others were wounded in a previous round.
Smoke poured overnight from US bases in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.
"When we heard the sounds, we cried out of fear," said Jana Hassan, a 15-year-old student who was near the strike in Bahrain.
In Abu Dhabi, the UAE's capital, two people were killed, while smoke and flames rose from Dubai's famed man-made island The Palm, with four reported injured.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards contacted ships to announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for oil from the Gulf, although it was not clear if the threat was being enforced.

Unprecedented scale

Tehran residents had been going about their usual business when the Israeli-US operation first began. Security forces quickly flooded the streets, shops pulled down their shutters and few pedestrians risked venturing out, an AFP journalist saw. 
"I saw with my own eyes two Tomahawk missiles flying horizontally toward targets," a Tehran office worker told AFP before communications and internet access were cut. 
It was the first US military action of this scale apparently aimed at toppling a foreign government since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Israel's army chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir said the operation was "taking place at a completely different scale" than the 12-day war it fought against Iran in June, which the US briefly joined. 
Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, the UAE and Israel all closed their airspaces to civilian traffic, at least in part, and multiple airlines cancelled flights to the Middle East. 
Trump's envoys had negotiated in Geneva on Thursday with Iran's foreign minister.
Trump said that Iran's leaders had not compromised sufficiently on its disputed nuclear programme, although he made clear after the attack that the goal was regime change and not a nuclear deal.
Oman had been mediating and had on Friday reported what it called a breakthrough, with Iran said to agree not to stockpile any uranium.
Oman called Saturday for an immediate ceasefire. Iran also called on the UN Security Council, which held an emergency session Saturday and where the United States holds veto power, to act to stop the attack.
burs/sct/sst/ceg/hmn

oil

OPEC+ mulls oil production increase in shadow of war

BY POL-MALO LE BRIS

  • - Limited impact - Even if OPEC+ agrees on an output increase of 137,000 barrels per day on Sunday, the impact on oil prices will be limited, especially since the hike would only translate into an actual increase of 80,000 to 90,000 barrels, according to Kpler estimates. 
  • As a fresh Middle East conflict risks sending oil prices sharply higher, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance are widely expected to announce an output increase Sunday, analysts say.
  • - Limited impact - Even if OPEC+ agrees on an output increase of 137,000 barrels per day on Sunday, the impact on oil prices will be limited, especially since the hike would only translate into an actual increase of 80,000 to 90,000 barrels, according to Kpler estimates. 
As a fresh Middle East conflict risks sending oil prices sharply higher, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance are widely expected to announce an output increase Sunday, analysts say.
The virtual meeting by the eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied nations (OPEC+) known as the "Voluntary Eight" (V8) comes a day after the US and Israel launched an ongoing wave of strikes on Iran.
Last year, the V8 group -- comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- boosted production by around 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in total before announcing a three-month pause in output hikes.  
But now the picture has changed dramatically.
Even before the conflict erupted on Saturday, the market had already priced in a growing geopolitical risk premium over months of US military build-up in the region.
Brent, the global benchmark for crude oil, jumped more than three percent on Friday to trade over $73 per barrel, up from $61 at the beginning of the year.
Several other developments have squeezed oil supply since early January, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
They include "cold weather in the US across January (that) resulted in temporarily production shut-ins", "disruptions in Russia" linked to drone attacks, as well as in Kazakhstan, where "a power outage disrupted production from the Tengiz oil field", he added.
That's why, even before Saturday's strikes, the market was anticipating a quota increase of 137,000 barrels per day. 
"These relatively high prices are a good incentive for OPEC+ to resume its production increases" from April, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi told AFP.
Before the weekend, Falakshahi said a US strike on Iran would not necessarily alter the OPEC+ decision, as the group might prefer to wait and assess the impact on flows before adding more oil to the market than previously planned.

Iran tensions

In the short term, the US attack will likely trigger "a massive surge in prices" with what follows depending on how far the conflict escalates, Falakshahi said.
The conflict could certainly severely disrupt global oil supplies and send barrel prices soaring to a level not seen in years.
Iran is a significant oil producer, but the principal risk remains a prolonged blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, through which around 20 million barrels of crude pass each day -- around 20 percent of global production.
And there are virtually no alternatives for crude transport.
Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipeline networks, capable of carrying a maximum of 2.6 million barrels per day, that allow them to bypass the Straits of Hormuz, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
"That said, even if strikes remain limited, we think Brent crude oil prices might rise to about $80pb (around their peak during the 12-day war in June 2025), from $73pb yesterday", wrote William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
But prices would rise much more if the conflict is a prolonged one, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period.
"That could cause oil prices to jump, perhaps to around $100pb," said Jackson.

Limited impact

Even if OPEC+ agrees on an output increase of 137,000 barrels per day on Sunday, the impact on oil prices will be limited, especially since the hike would only translate into an actual increase of 80,000 to 90,000 barrels, according to Kpler estimates. 
"Spare capacity is much smaller than some perceive, and primarily in the hands of Saudi Arabia," Staunovo told AFP, adding that Russian production had been "on a declining trend over the last two months".
Boosting production would nevertheless allow OPEC+ members to regain market share in the face of competition from other key players such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. 
"OPEC+ would prefer prices of $80-90, but around $70 per barrel is the ideal price level for this strategy" because it is "not enough to encourage further investment by US producers but acceptable for OPEC+," Falakshahi said.
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