conflict

Nearly two years into war, is Russia's economy out of the woods?

BY ANNA SMOLCHENKO

"We have overcome all problems that arose after the sanctions were imposed on us and we have started the next stage of development," Putin announced in October.

As he prepares to run for re-election in 2024, is President Vladimir Putin right to claim the worst is over for the Russian economy?
"We have overcome all problems that arose after the sanctions were imposed on us and we have started the next stage of development," Putin announced in October.

As he prepares to run for re-election in 2024, is President Vladimir Putin right to claim the worst is over for the Russian economy?

Nearly two years after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy has demonstrated surprising resilience in the face of an unprecedented avalanche of Western sanctions.

But economists say Russia's wartime economy may be showing signs of overheating, while Western leaders are hoping the sanctions will finally bite.

A French diplomatic source expressed hope that the economic penalties would start to be felt in late 2024 or early 2025.

Sanctions "are like a small puncture in a tire. It's not immediate, but it works," another European diplomatic source told AFP.

"It's a marathon, not a sprint," said Agathe Demarais, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

She said the goal of the penalties was not to trigger the collapse of the world's ninth-largest economy, which could have provoked a global crisis, nor to bring about regime change.

"Their aim is to limit the capabilities of the Russian war machine," said Demarais.

The EU has imposed 11 rounds of sanctions on Russia since its all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, including hitting its key oil and gas exports. The 12th package of measures, including a ban on the import of Russian diamonds, is currently in the works.

According to official figures, 49 percent of European exports to Russia and 58 percent of Russian imports are under sanctions.

Even if Russia has become the most sanctioned country in the world, its economy has been dented but not devastated.

Observers say past economic crises and the first set of Western sanctions over the annexation of Crimea in 2014 have taught Putin's economic team how to better manage risks.

- 'Symptoms of overheating' -

The Kremlin now plans to increase spending on defence by nearly 70 percent in 2024, a sign Moscow might be hunkering down for a long war in Ukraine.

"We have overcome all problems that arose after the sanctions were imposed on us and we have started the next stage of development," Putin announced in October.

According to official Russian statistics, the country's gross domestic product grew 5.5 percent in the third quarter of this year, and economic growth is seen at 2 percent next year.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said the Russian economy performed well but its performance indicators are misleading.

"They are all symptoms of overheating. One-third of growth is driven by military spending so the economy got addicted to the military needle," said Prokopenko, who worked at the Russian central bank between 2019 and early 2022.

"Dependence on oil has also increased, and it is stronger now than it was before the war," she told AFP.

To help bypass sanctions on oil sales, Russia has created a vast shadow fleet and parallel financial infrastructure.

"Russia's main export income still comes from the sale of hydrocarbons," said Prokopenko, pointing to major buyers like China and India.

According to Global Witness, an environmental watchdog, EU imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) went up by 40 percent in the first seven months of the year, amounting to nearly 5.3 billion euros ($5.7 billion).

Companies in countries including Turkey, the UAE, China and post-Soviet countries like Kazakhstan are involved in schemes to help Moscow circumvent sanctions. Research shows that Russia has had access to Western weapons technology via third countries such as China.

Prokopenko said that even European companies are ready to continue trading with Russia, including in dual-use goods, if these deals can be routed through third countries.

- 'Bursting with money' -

Demarais acknowledged that there are "inconsistencies" in European policymaking over Russia but added it was difficult to estimate Moscow's long-term resilience.

"At the moment they are on a war footing, but how long can that last? It's hard to say," she said.

"Social peace is costly, too."

While sanctions have complicated the lives of ordinary Russians, some moneyed Muscovites are living their best life, directly benefitting from the war, observers say.

"Moscow is bursting with money," long-time political observer Sergei Medvedev wrote on Facebook, pointing to defence deals and surging oil sales.

Witnesses say more high-end cars are seen on the streets of Moscow, while luxury shopping and dining show no sign of abating.

Writing for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Denis Volkov and Andrei Kolesnikov said last month that Russians adapted to the new economic conditions "in the space of just one year".

"Most Russians understand that the war in Ukraine will not end anytime soon, and they try not to focus too much on military topics or developments at the front," they wrote.

Russian society, they said, has "learned to stop worrying about the war".

cf-ob-burs-as/jh/gv/leg

transport

'Back on track': Biden unveils plan for first US high-speed train

BY AURELIA END WITH JULIE CHABANAS IN WASHINGTON

A line between San Francisco and Los Angeles is in the works, which like the LA-Las Vegas service which will receive up to approximately $3 billion.

Train enthusiast Joe Biden unveiled a $8.2 billion plan Friday to get America's creaking rail network back on track, including its first ever high-speed link between Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
A line between San Francisco and Los Angeles is in the works, which like the LA-Las Vegas service which will receive up to approximately $3 billion.

Train enthusiast Joe Biden unveiled a $8.2 billion plan Friday to get America's creaking rail network back on track, including its first ever high-speed link between Los Angeles and Las Vegas.

Slow, infrequent and often non-existent, trains have long been the poor relation of cars and planes in the United States.

But the US president, who used the train between his Delaware home and Washington so much as a US senator that he was nicknamed "Amtrak Joe," visited Las Vegas to announce a series of federally funded rail upgrades.

"You have no idea how much this pleases me," Biden said at a union center in the gambling hub.

The plan would "put our nation back on track with the fastest, safest and greenest railways in the world."

Biden's administration hopes to complete the Vegas-to-LA rail link by 2028. It is designed to slash the current five-hour car journey to two hours and 40 minutes -- part of a larger ambition of doubling passenger numbers on America's railways by 2040.

Biden highlighted the fact that China, the world's second-largest economy, boasts trains that travel 220 miles an hour (350 kilometers an hour).

'Transformational'

The Democrat also took the chance to lash out at his likely rival in the 2024 election, Republican Donald Trump, for failing to improve US infrastructure while he was president.

"He likes to say America's a failing nation," said Biden. "Frankly he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about."

Major rail projects are part of the infrastructure investment plan that Biden pushed through shortly after taking office, which allocated $66 billion for passenger trains.

This is the largest sum allocated to passenger rail since the formation of Amtrak in 1971.

The quasi-public company was set up to relieve private freight of the burden of passenger transport, and now operates inter-city rail lines across the country.

"This will be truly transformational for US passenger rail," Amtrak executive vice-president Laura Mason told AFP.

The funding will create new lines and extend existing ones, boost services, upgrade stations and build modern, faster trains.

A line between San Francisco and Los Angeles is in the works, which like the LA-Las Vegas service which will receive up to approximately $3 billion.

The shuttered line connecting New Orleans, Louisiana with Mobile, Alabama is due to reopen almost 20 years after it was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.

'Skeletal' network

Trains played a crucial role in expansion across the western United States in the 19th century, but today's network is "skeletal," Jim Mathews, the head of the US Rail Passengers Association, told AFP.

Train service in the densely populated northeastern United States is relatively regular but crossing the country from east to west takes between two and two-and-a-half days.

"You'll have to change trains in Chicago," Mathews said. "And if you want a sleeping compartment, you have to book that months in advance."

It's not just a question of repairing tracks and building new trains, but also "changing how people move, and how do we encourage mode shift out of cars, out of airplanes, onto trains," said Mason from Amtrak.

'Real change'

The current context is favorable for train travel, Mason insisted.

"We're seeing a real change coming out of the pandemic and how people want to move," she said, adding that passenger numbers were growing.

Some do it for environmental concerns, while others choose train travel for its tranquility, convenience or simply "for the experience," she added.

In the waiting area at Washington's Union Station, Alan Beaubien, who lives in Florida, was in town on a business trip.

"Once I'm in the northeast, I will always use the train," he told AFP.

But "when you get into more the Midwest or the West, you don't have as many options," he said.

Chukwuemeka Chuks-Okeke is another loyal Amtrak user.

"There's obviously no traffic, and I enjoy taking the train. It's relaxing," he told AFP.

jul-dk/acb

Global Edition

US stocks, dollar gain after strong jobs data

But Kourkafas cited robust consumer confidence data also released Friday as a positive catalyst, noting that the report from the University of Michigan showed improving sentiment about inflation.

Wall Street stocks finished the week on a positive note Friday following solid labor and consumer data, while the dollar pushed higher.
But Kourkafas cited robust consumer confidence data also released Friday as a positive catalyst, noting that the report from the University of Michigan showed improving sentiment about inflation.

Wall Street stocks finished the week on a positive note Friday following solid labor and consumer data, while the dollar pushed higher.

The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, while the jobless rate ticked down to 3.7 percent from 3.9 percent, according to Department of Labor figures, better than analyst expectations.

"So far, that soft-landing is reinforced by this report," said Angelo Kourkafas, investment strategist at Edward Jones. "The labor market remains strong but it's slightly easing."

All three major indices advanced, with the broad-based S&P 500 winning 0.4 percent.

"All in all, this report should make you less anxious about a recession," said Callie Cox at eToro. "The job market is still in a good place, and wage growth is still coming down. That's what the Fed wants to see."

US equities initially wavered after the data boosted Treasury yields amid expectations that the strong labor figures could delay the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates.

But Kourkafas cited robust consumer confidence data also released Friday as a positive catalyst, noting that the report from the University of Michigan showed improving sentiment about inflation.

The dollar advanced against the euro and other major currencies following the upbeat data.

Elsewhere, European equities advanced, with Frankfurt's DAX again striking new record trading and closing highs.

But equities in Tokyo suffered another drop, with the Nikkei 225 falling 1.7 percent. The index experienced a similar decline on Thursday following a surge in the yen.

Oil prices jumped more than two percent, finally advancing after six straight down days in a move analysts attributed to a technical bounce.

Among individual companies, Honeywell International dropped 1.6 percent after reaching a deal to acquire Carrier Global's security business for $5 billion. Carrier climbed 4.5 percent.

Key figures around 2150 GMT

New York - Dow: UP 0.4 percent at 36,247.87 (close)

New York - S&P 500: UP 0.4 percent at 4,604.37 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: UP 0.5 percent at 14,403.97 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 7,554.47 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: UP 1.3 percent at 7,526.55 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.8 percent at 16,759.22 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: UP 1.1 percent at 4,523.31 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.7 percent at 32,307.86 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 16,334.37 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 2,969.56 (close)

Dollar/yen: UP at 144.97 yen from 144.13 yen on Thursday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0767 from $1.0794

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2550 from $1.2594

Euro/pound: UP at 85.76 pence from 85.70 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.7 percent at $71.23 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 2.4 percent at $75.84 per barrel

burs-rl-jmb/dw

economy

Led by Taylor Swift's $1 bn tour, 2023 concerts set new record

Swift's tour broke new ground, becoming the first in history to surpass the symbolic $1 billion mark in ticket sales in 60 dates from March to November 2023.

Led by Beyonce and Taylor Swift, whose "Eras Tour" was the first to bring in more than $1 billion, ticket revenues from the top 100 concert tours of 2023 jumped to a record $9.17 billion, industry magazine Pollstar said Friday.
Swift's tour broke new ground, becoming the first in history to surpass the symbolic $1 billion mark in ticket sales in 60 dates from March to November 2023.

Led by Beyonce and Taylor Swift, whose "Eras Tour" was the first to bring in more than $1 billion, ticket revenues from the top 100 concert tours of 2023 jumped to a record $9.17 billion, industry magazine Pollstar said Friday.

Total sales for the 2023 tours (stretching for a year starting from mid-November 2022) skyrocketed 46 percent as compared to the previous year, which was also a record.

"2023 was a colossus, the likes of which the live industry has never before seen," Pollstar said on its website.

All metrics showed increases: the average revenue from a concert was up 53 percent to $2.37 million; total ticket sales rose 18 percent to 70 million; and average ticket prices were up more than 23 percent to $130.81.

Swift's tour broke new ground, becoming the first in history to surpass the symbolic $1 billion mark in ticket sales in 60 dates from March to November 2023.

But Pollstar predicted that the pop megastar, named Time magazine's Person of the Year on Wednesday, could pass the $2 billion mark by the time the tour eventually wraps up.

The only one to have come close to a billion up till now was Elton John, whose marathon "Farewell Yellow Brick Road Tour" -- 328 dates over five years -- raked in $939 million.

Beyonce took in $579 million over 56 dates for her "Renaissance Tour" for second place in 2023, while Bruce Springsteen, Coldplay and Harry Styles rounded out the top five.

Pollstar noted that this was the first time in 15 years, when Madonna and Celine Dion dominated the rankings in 2008, that two women were at the top of the rankings, calling it "an extremely positive sign for this industry."

"The duo not only smashed the glass ceiling but created a more inclusive roof in their wake," Pollstar said.

The outlook for 2024 appears to be promising, with more concerts from Swift, Springsteen and Coldplay, plus tours from the Rolling Stones, Foo Fighters and Carrie Underwood.

arb-tu/jh/sst

politics

Oil at the root of Guyana-Venezuela border row

BY BARBARA AGELVIS

- Can Venezuela issue oil licenses?

The discovery of vast oil deposits is blamed for reigniting a decades-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana that fast worsened as Guyana started granting licenses to multinationals to exploit crude in waters claimed by both countries.
- Can Venezuela issue oil licenses?

The discovery of vast oil deposits is blamed for reigniting a decades-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana that fast worsened as Guyana started granting licenses to multinationals to exploit crude in waters claimed by both countries.

This is what we know about the showdown over the Essequibo region that has the world on edge.

How much oil in Essequibo?

The 160,000-square-kilometer (62,000-square-mile) territory has been administered by English-speaking Guyana since an 1899 arbitration award in favor of the then-British colony.

Venezuela claims the region has historically been considered part of its territory since 1777, when it was part of the Spanish empire, with the Essequibo river forming a natural boundary.

The matter is before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.

Long dormant, the squabble was revived in 2015 when US energy giant ExxonMobil discovered huge crude reserves in Essequibo -- which makes up about two-thirds of Guyanese territory and is home to 125,000 of its 800,000 citizens.

Suddenly, Guyana sat on reserves estimated at 11 billion barrels of crude -- the highest per capita in the world.

ExxonMobil has since initiated 63 drilling projects, bringing Guyana's production to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd).

By the end of 2027, it is expected to reach 1.2 million bpd.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has protested licenses being granted in a region yet to be formally delineated by the ICJ, and has described his Guyanese counterpart Irfaan Ali as a "slave" of ExxonMobil.

Venezuela has the world's largest proven reserves of crude at some 300 billion barrels, but extraction has suffered under years of economic mismanagement, corruption and economic sanctions.

Production has fallen in just over a decade from three million bpd to 400,000 at the lowest level, recovering slightly to 750,000 bpd today.

Can Venezuela issue oil licenses?

After a referendum last Sunday overwhelmingly approved Caracas' proposed creation of a Venezuelan province in Essequibo, Maduro ordered state oil company PDVSA to issue permits for oil, gas and mineral exploration in the area.

The president also gave companies working under Guyana-issued licenses an ultimatum to withdraw from the area within three months and renegotiate with Venezuela.

The deadline "is generating significant uncertainty" for companies, Mariano de Alba of the International Crisis Group think tank told AFP.

"We will have to see how they react."

International litigation lawyer Ramon Escovar Leon told AFP Maduro's order would be hard to execute.

"It’s rhetorical," he said.

"On paper you can grant the license but the execution is not guaranteed," added De Alba, who believes that Maduro is seeking to force Ali into negotiations over licensing, which he has refused.

Guyana's Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo on Thursday told foreign companies to "pay no regard to Maduro or his ultimatum. We will defend that territory as sovereign Guyanese territory. They are operating legally, lawfully in this territory."

Jagdeo added that "any attempt to explore for petroleum by his (Maduro's) state oil companies... will be seen as an incursion."

Risk of escalation?

The international community has expressed concern about the rising tensions, but experts do not believe there is much risk of full-out conflict.

The United States is concerned about its medium- and long-term oil supply, and has every interest in keeping peace in the area.

"Limited military operations" could occur, such as military patrols, said De Alba, but likely nothing more.

Tensions rose Thursday with the United States announcing joint military exercises in Guyana, slammed as "provocation" by Venezuela.

Escovar Leon said the costs of escalation are likely too high for Venezuela to risk given the vested interests of Guyanese allies such as the United States and China, whose companies also have concessions in the area.

ba/erc/jt/mbj/mel/mlr/bgs

layoffs

Stellantis warns thousands in US of potential job cuts

The European automaker on Thursday notified 2,455 workers in Detroit and 1,225 in Ohio of potential job loss under the federal Warn Act, which requires early notification of major layoffs.

Stellantis has notified thousands of workers in the US states of Ohio and Michigan of potential layoffs, attributing the move partly to California rules that limit where vehicles can be sold.
The European automaker on Thursday notified 2,455 workers in Detroit and 1,225 in Ohio of potential job loss under the federal Warn Act, which requires early notification of major layoffs.

Stellantis has notified thousands of workers in the US states of Ohio and Michigan of potential layoffs, attributing the move partly to California rules that limit where vehicles can be sold.

The European automaker on Thursday notified 2,455 workers in Detroit and 1,225 in Ohio of potential job loss under the federal Warn Act, which requires early notification of major layoffs.

The company expects the actual number of layoffs to be "much lower" than the Detroit figure and "slightly lower" than the Ohio number, said Stellantis spokeswoman Jodi Tinson.

"Due to the complexity of our bargaining agreement related to the placement of affected employees, Warn notices were issued to more employees than will ultimately be impacted out of an abundance of caution to give employees notice even if not legally required," Tinson told AFP in an email.

The notification hits the Midwestern states only weeks after workers at Stellantis and fellow Detroit giants General Motors and Ford ratified sweeping new wage increases following a roughly six-week strike organized by the United Auto Workers union.

The job cuts affect Stellantis' Mack assembly plant in Detroit, where the Grand Cherokee and hybrid Grand Cherokee 4xe are assembled; and the Toledo Assembly plants where the Jeep Wrangler and hybrid Jeep 4xe are put together.

The moves at the plants are to "manage sales of the vehicles they produce to comply with California emissions regulations that are measured on a state-by-state basis," said a Stellantis statement.

On Wednesday, Stellantis filed a formal challenge with the California Office Administrative Law of state air board policies that it argues unfairly disadvantage the European company.

Stellantis is currently sending only the hybrid versions of its vehicles to dealer lots in California and 13 other states that follow the mandates set down by the California Air Resources Board (CARB).

This has meant that in certain periods, Stellantis has only sold internal combustion engine vehicles in California in response to customer orders, Stellantis attorneys said in the December 6 letter to the administrative board.

Conversely, the company has at times limited hybrid models to customer orders, meaning "dealers could not place certain vehicles on their lots for customers to view and test drive," Stellantis said in the letter.

In July 2019, California announced an agreement with four Stellantis rivals -- Ford, Honda, Volkswagen and BMW -- in response to then President Donald Trump's effort to freeze emissions rules.

CARB's "continuing exclusion" of Stellantis subjects the company to a "double standard," which also threatens "the livelihoods of our 56,000 US employees," the company said.

str-jmb/md

employment

US unemployment ticks down as job market remains robust

BY BEIYI SEOW

But there appears to be optimism that the United States can cool the economy -- and lower inflation -- without tipping it into a recession.

The United States saw its jobless rate dip in November while hiring rose more than expected, government data showed Friday, fueling optimism that the world's biggest economy may achieve the elusive goal of avoiding recession, while also taming inflation.
But there appears to be optimism that the United States can cool the economy -- and lower inflation -- without tipping it into a recession.

The United States saw its jobless rate dip in November while hiring rose more than expected, government data showed Friday, fueling optimism that the world's biggest economy may achieve the elusive goal of avoiding recession, while also taming inflation.

The economy added 199,000 jobs, said the Department of Labor, and unemployment fell to 3.7 percent.

Wage growth accelerated to 0.4 percent from the prior month but held steady from year-ago levels.

Although employment appears to be heating up, analysts noted the underlying state of the labor market has been weakening. The figures could also be revised downwards.

The latest hiring uptick comes on the back of October figures that were temporarily bogged down due to strikes by auto workers and in Hollywood.

"Employment growth is below the average monthly gain of 240,000 over the prior 12 months but is in line with job growth in recent months," said the Labor Department.

The figures are closely watched by markets and the Federal Reserve as policymakers ponder how to handle interest rates in order to fight stubborn inflation.

The central bank is due to announce its next rate decision at the end of a policy meeting next week.

President Joe Biden, who is running for reelection next year, lauded the low unemployment and overall drop in inflation.

"But I know prices are still too high for too many Americans. So my top economic priority is to lower costs for hardworking Americans," he added in a statement.

Returning workers

"Payroll gains were inflated by returning strikers in November, but the underlying pace of job growth has slowed in recent months," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.

By some estimates, headline growth was boosted by about 30,000 on the return of auto workers.

Resilience in income gains is also expected to support consumption during the holiday season.

Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, said she continues to expect a cooling in the labor market as the effect of higher interest rates flows through the economy.

She added that the latest data is unlikely to change the Fed's outlook and she expects the central bank to cut the benchmark lending rate, probably by mid-2024.

"Overall, the labor market remains strong, with job growth still robust and the unemployment rate at extraordinarily low levels," said Farooqi.

'Reality check'

All key metrics in the November employment report exceeded expectations, said Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic.

While markets have rallied strongly in the past month on rising expectations that the Fed would start to cut rates in the first quarter, she added: "This delivers a reality check to financial markets."

But there appears to be optimism that the United States can cool the economy -- and lower inflation -- without tipping it into a recession.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters on the sidelines of a trip to Mexico this week: "I'm feeling very good about the economic outlook, and most economists are envisioning continued strength in the labor market."

On the balance between lowering inflation and growth, she added: "Economists who've said it's going to require very high unemployment to get this done are eating their words."

bys/sms

Vestager

Once the bane of big tech, Vestager's star wanes

Vestager will now return to the commission but with only a few months left before European elections that are likely to change the make-up of the EU's executive arm. bur-aro/raz/dc/gil

Margrethe Vestager is preparing to return to her day job as the European Union's competition chief after a hard-fought and ultimately unsuccessful bid to lead the bloc's lender.
Vestager will now return to the commission but with only a few months left before European elections that are likely to change the make-up of the EU's executive arm. bur-aro/raz/dc/gil

Margrethe Vestager is preparing to return to her day job as the European Union's competition chief after a hard-fought and ultimately unsuccessful bid to lead the bloc's lender.

She stepped down temporarily in September after entering the race to become the next head of the European Investment Bank but lost out on Friday to Spanish economy minister Nadia Calvino.

After the EU selected Calvino, Vestager, 55, said she would "resume" her duties at the European Commission, the Eu's executive arm.

Vestager's star has waned in recent years following a series of setbacks in EU courts against some of the world's biggest companies, including Apple.

It wasn't always thus.

The former Danish minister was once one of the best-known EU officials.

Her name and face were recognisable beyond the Brussels bubble, and she was known for hitting tech companies with hefty fines.

She was even once in the running to become president of the European Commission.

Her tough stance towards US firms earned her the ire of former president Donald Trump, who reportedly told Vestager's boss in 2018: "Your tax lady... she really hates the US."

True to form, she later quipped: "I've done my own fact-checking on the first part of that sentence. I do work with tax and I am a woman so this is 100-percent correct."

But, she insisted: "I very much like the US."

Everyman approach

Vestager brought a huge change to the grey and insular world of anti-trust law when she arrived in Brussels in 2014 to take over the portfolio.

The daughter of Lutheran pastors and now married to a mathematics professor, Vestager says she is guided by the principles of "neutrality, impartiality, rigour".

Avoiding legal jargon and weighty opinions, Vestager insisted on an everyman approach to anti-trust issues, focusing on consumers.

She was best known for delivering mega fines against Silicon Valley giant Google and ordering back taxes to be paid by Apple and Amazon.

Such was her success, she became commission executive vice-president in 2019 with a portfolio that included the digital transition, one of the EU's priorities.

But soon all that was left were the dying embers of the trail she blazed, as the legal losses began stacking up, as well as what some member states, especially France, viewed as missteps that harmed Europe.

She infuriated officials in Paris and Berlin after slapping a veto on the merger of the rail businesses of Siemens and Alstom in 2019, and further aggravated France this summer when she tried to hire a US competition expert to advise the commission.

'Margrethe III'

A major setback came in 2020, when the EU's lower General Court annulled the commission's order for Apple to repay the money.

There were also losses in the courts against Starbucks and Amazon in 2019 and 2021 respectively.

Vestager may yet win a reprieve in the Apple case after the European Court of Justice's top legal advisor called for a new ruling. The ECJ will issue its decision next year.

Vestager was at one time famous for inspiring her country's hit television political drama "Borgen", about an ambitious female politician who becomes prime minister.

She developed a taste for Europe's potential when she was the Danish economy minister, chairing meetings with her colleagues during the grim depths of the eurozone debt crisis.

Sometimes nicknamed back home as "Margrethe III," an allusion to Denmark's Queen Margrethe II, she became minister in 1998, was named at 29 to the education and ecclesiastical affairs portfolio, and over the years rose smoothly through the ranks.

Vestager will now return to the commission but with only a few months left before European elections that are likely to change the make-up of the EU's executive arm.

bur-aro/raz/dc/gil

culture

Krispy Kreme doughnuts, the latest US chain to try its luck in France

BY MONA GUICHARD

Krispy Kreme can count on some devoted followers such as David Mitrani, a 33-year-old accountant who discovered the brand abroad and was at the Paris store opening.

US doughnut chain Krispy Kreme has opened its first shop in Paris, hoping to follow in the footsteps of other American fast-food franchises have won over the French in recent years.
Krispy Kreme can count on some devoted followers such as David Mitrani, a 33-year-old accountant who discovered the brand abroad and was at the Paris store opening.

US doughnut chain Krispy Kreme has opened its first shop in Paris, hoping to follow in the footsteps of other American fast-food franchises have won over the French in recent years.

While doughnuts are not unknown in France, they are generally an item among others at bakeries and other outlets, not the main billing.

The Californian chain Randy's Donuts opened in the French capital in October 2022 but closed a few months later.

So to succeed in its 39th foreign market, Krispy Kreme's director general for France, Alexandre Maizoue, has pulled out all the stops: home delivery starting early next year, opening a production site in the eastern suburb of Creteil in 2024, and reaching 500 stores within five years.

"I think we have some great years ahead of us," he said. The company has already invested more than two million euros ($2.2 million) in its first store and production facility.

To ensure buzz, Krispy Kreme launched a huge publicity campaign -- with the Paris City Hall even accusing it of illegal postering -- and handed out some 100,000 doughnuts at various places around Paris.

A deejay and a red carpet welcomed clients to the Wednesday opening of the new store in the Halles shopping centre in central Paris.

According to Maizoue, around 400 people were in line at 8 am for the opening, with a total of 3,000 coming the first day.

The chain's first French store is offering 13 varies of doughnuts, or "donut" as it known in France, with clients able to observe the production behind a glass wall -- a hallmark of the brand.

- 'American way of life' -

"When we opened the first doughnut boutique in Paris in 2015, everyone told me it would not work here," Amanda Bankert, an American baker who runs Boneshaker Donuts, told AFP. "I did not know that doughnuts were associated with what is worst in American food."

"It is very sugary, very chemical," Karima Prince, a 51-year-old beautician, said as she tried an "Original Glazed", the classic product of Krispy Kreme, founded in 1937.

Krispy Kreme can count on some devoted followers such as David Mitrani, a 33-year-old accountant who discovered the brand abroad and was at the Paris store opening.

"What surprised me is not that they have come to France, but that it took so long," he said.

For Francois Blouin, founder of research firm Food Service Vision, the French are hardly reticent to try American foods. "France may be a country of gastronomy but it is also one of the places where American-influenced chains do well," he said.

Bankert, the Boneshaker founder, said she was optimistic for the American chain's prospects.

"In 2015, it might have been different, but I think today it will work for Krispy Kreme," she said.

law-mng/gv/js

bank

Spain's Calvino beats Vestager to head bloc's lender

The EIB is the world's biggest multilateral public lender and has poured in billions of euros to help Ukraine after Russia's invasion and to invest in European infrastructure in line with the EU's long-term aims.

Spain's economy minister Nadia Calvino on Friday won the race to lead the European Investment Bank, the bloc's lending arm whose significance has grown since war broke out in Ukraine.
The EIB is the world's biggest multilateral public lender and has poured in billions of euros to help Ukraine after Russia's invasion and to invest in European infrastructure in line with the EU's long-term aims.

Spain's economy minister Nadia Calvino on Friday won the race to lead the European Investment Bank, the bloc's lending arm whose significance has grown since war broke out in Ukraine.

The top post at the Luxembourg-based EIB attracted some of the biggest names in European politics, including the European Union's competition commissioner, Margrethe Vestager, who had stepped down temporarily to run.

"We've come to a conclusion and a consensus around the candidacy of Nadia Calvino as the next president of the EIB," Belgian finance minister Vincent Van Peteghem said after a meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels.

"With Nadia, we have a strong next president of the EIB," he added.

Belgium led the recruitment process since the country holds the rotating presidency of the EIB's board of governors.

Calvino had been the clear frontrunner for the role for several weeks. The 55-year-old will be the EIB's first woman chief and will take over from Werner Hoyer, 72, whose second six-year term ends on December 31.

"I am grateful and honoured to get the support of my fellow financial ministers," Calvino told reporters in Brussels after she was formally named the EU candidate.

'Pride for Spain'

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez hailed Calvino's appointment as "fantastic news for Europe and a source of pride for Spain".

"It is a recognition of her extraordinary career, her rigour and leadership of Spain's economic policy," Sanchez said on social media. "This is an election that strengthens Spain's presence and influence in international organisations."

Vestager had been seen as a clear frontrunner, headed for a coronation, until Calvino threw her name into the hat in August this year, blocking the Danish politician's path to victory.

In a social media post, Vestager withdrew herself from consideration and said she would resume her duties at the European Commission, where she served as executive vice-president in charge of competition policy.

There were three other candidates: Italy's ex-finance minister Daniele Franco as well as current EIB vice presidents Teresa Czerwinska of Poland and Thomas Ostros of Sweden.

The EIB is the world's biggest multilateral public lender and has poured in billions of euros to help Ukraine after Russia's invasion and to invest in European infrastructure in line with the EU's long-term aims.

A former civil servant in Spain, Calvino previously worked in the European Commission's budget department in Brussels before her political career began in 2018.

She speaks English, French and German as well as her native Spanish.

Focus on green transition

Vestager's EIB bid is believed to also have been hurt by a controversy in July over the commission's move to hire an American competition expert to advise it on regulating big tech.

France was particularly incensed that the role had not gone to an EU citizen, leading to the expert's withdrawal from the role.

Since Moscow's assault on Ukraine began in February 2022, the EIB said it had mobilised and disbursed 1.7 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in emergency relief.

The EIB, set up in 1958, signed off on more than 65 billion euros of financing last year.

As the EU has focused on the green transition so has the lender, with more than half of the financing aimed at supporting climate action and sustainability.

France wants the bank to take more risks, pitting Paris against Germany, which does not want to push the institution to do too much all at once.

Paris has especially pushed for the EIB to finance nuclear power. Calvino, whose government is anti-nuclear, is believed to be open to the issue.

bur-raz/dc/rl

economy

Spain finance chief Calvino to head EU's lending arm

BY VALENTIN BONTEMPS

Her political career began in 2018 when Sanchez, who was recently sworn in as premier, named her his economy minister as well as one of his deputy prime ministers.

Spain's Economy Minister Nadia Calvino, the newly-named European Investment Bank (EIB) chief, is a politician who is well-versed in EU lore and a pragmatist with experience of navigating power struggles.
Her political career began in 2018 when Sanchez, who was recently sworn in as premier, named her his economy minister as well as one of his deputy prime ministers.

Spain's Economy Minister Nadia Calvino, the newly-named European Investment Bank (EIB) chief, is a politician who is well-versed in EU lore and a pragmatist with experience of navigating power struggles.

Since its creation in 1958, the EIB has had seven presidents, "all of them men, and never a Spaniard," the 55-year-old economist said while putting her name forward to become the first woman to run what is effectively the EU's financial arm.

And she's done it: Calvino was appointed to the EIB's top job at a meeting of European finance ministers, beating out Denmark's Margrethe Vestager.

She will replace Germany's Werner Hoyer whose second six-year term as EIB president finishes at the year's end.

The decision consolidates the international stature of a woman who, since entering politics five years ago, has established herself as a political heavyweight in Spain's left-wing government, with her liberal outlook ensuring budgetary orthodoxy among radical left-wing peers.

Polyglot

Calvino was born in 1968 in A Coruna, a port city in Spain's northwestern Galicia region, to a father who was a lawyer and headed Spain's public television in the early 1980s.

She grew up in Madrid where she studied economics then law. Fluent in English, French and German as well as her native Spanish, Calvino worked as an interpreter to finance her studies.

After completing her degrees, she held senior positions in the economy ministry under both conservative prime minister Jose Maria Aznar and his Socialist successor Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

In 2006 she moved to Brussels where from 2014 to 2018 she was the director general of the European Commission's budget department.

Her political career began in 2018 when Sanchez, who was recently sworn in as premier, named her his economy minister as well as one of his deputy prime ministers.

Calvino's appointment was seen as an attempt to send a message of stability to the markets which were concerned about the new minority Socialist government's reliance on the far-left and on Basque and Catalan separatist parties to pass legislation.

The bet paid off, despite occasional tensions between Calvino and hard-left members of Sanchez's cabinet.

Animal brooches

A fan of 1950s films who is said to be polite-but-tough during negotiations, Calvino had to steer Spain's economy through the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic and the upheaval caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

On her watch, Spain's economy expanded by 5.5 percent last year -- one of the fastest rates in Europe -- while inflation fell to 1.9 percent in June and stood at 3.2 percent in November, one of the lowest levels in the eurozone.

A mother of four, Calvino was in 2020 a candidate to lead the Eurogroup panel of eurozone finance ministers, a post she didn't win despite Madrid's campaign to support her.

But in December 2021 she was selected to chair the IMF's monetary and financial committee.

With a penchant for animal-shaped brooches that carefully match her outfits, Calvino made headlines last year after refusing to take part in a photo at an event organised by the Madrid employers' federation when she realised she was the only woman in the group.

The lack of parity in circles of power is "an issue that we must take seriously" which is "key for the proper functioning of our societies," she said at the time, adding she would not take part in any more debates in which she is the only woman.

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Global Edition

Fashion world descends on UK's Manchester in Chanel show

BY CAROLINE TAIX

Having a Chanel show here is amazing for the city," added Emma Kara, who lives in the region. ctx/imm/md

Scintillating colours and celebrities lit up a gloomy Manchester on Thursday as the British city famous for its past textile industry flaunted the latest fashion in a prestigious Chanel show.
Having a Chanel show here is amazing for the city," added Emma Kara, who lives in the region. ctx/imm/md

Scintillating colours and celebrities lit up a gloomy Manchester on Thursday as the British city famous for its past textile industry flaunted the latest fashion in a prestigious Chanel show.

Lashed by rain and plunged into winter darkness from 3:30 pm, the city's gritty industrial heritage was not an obvious choice as the setting for the glitz and glamour of the French luxury group's Metiers d'Art event.

But the show proved otherwise as models strutted down the catwalk sporting dazzling bermuda shorts, mini-skirts and eye-catching outfits under a temporary covering in a city-centre street.

Tweed suits -- a quintessential British classic -- pearls and camelia also captured attention.

Actor Hugh Grant, director Sofia Coppola, local football stars Ruben Dias and Luke Shaw as well as brand ambassadors Charlotte Casiraghi and Kristen Stewart were among the celebrities in attendance.

"I loved the rock attitudes, the 60s looks," British actor Jenna Coleman told AFP.

The northern English city was a hub of the 19th-century industrial revolution, processing half of the world's cotton in 1860.

It has since reinvented itself as a centre for culture and sport, home to Manchester United and Manchester City football clubs and producing music icons including The Smiths, Simply Red, Oasis and Stone Roses.

The English National Opera will soon leave London to call Manchester home.

Chanel's creative director Virginie Viard said Manchester was the starting point for a musical culture that changed the world, inspiring her to bring the show there for its pioneering and creative spirit.

The Manchester City Council welcomed the event as a "fantastic homage" to the city and the regard for it worldwide.

"There are plenty of references to the city. Having a Chanel show here is amazing for the city," added Emma Kara, who lives in the region.

ctx/imm/md

Global Edition

Tech shares lift US stocks as yen surges

Tokyo's stock index took by far the biggest fall among major indices, closing down nearly two percent as the yen surged against the dollar, which makes Japanese exports more expensive.

US stocks rebounded Thursday behind strong gains in tech shares ahead of key US jobs data, while the yen surged against the dollar, weighing on Japanese shares.
Tokyo's stock index took by far the biggest fall among major indices, closing down nearly two percent as the yen surged against the dollar, which makes Japanese exports more expensive.

US stocks rebounded Thursday behind strong gains in tech shares ahead of key US jobs data, while the yen surged against the dollar, weighing on Japanese shares.

Artificial intelligence players Google and AMD both bounced following fresh announcements that underscored the market's appetite for the technology.

AMD surged nearly 10 percent after presenting its newest chip, the MI300, which is being positioned as a rival to a much-praised Nvidia product.

Google parent Alphabet won 5.3 percent as it demonstrated its new Gemini artificial intelligence model that the company said could outperform human experts in several areas of problem-solving, math, physics, history, law, medicine and ethics.

"This is incredible momentum, and yet, we're only beginning to scratch the surface of what's possible," Google chief executive Sundar Pichai said in a statement.

"This new era of models represents one of the biggest science and engineering efforts we've undertaken as a company."

The Nasdaq led major US indices, gaining 1.4 percent.

Most other Asian markets ended lower, and Europe's main exchanges also dipped.

Tokyo's stock index took by far the biggest fall among major indices, closing down nearly two percent as the yen surged against the dollar, which makes Japanese exports more expensive.

The yen strengthened more than two percent against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could announce a shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy at a meeting this month.

The Japanese currency has tumbled for much of the year owing to the BoJ's refusal to budge, but officials are shifting their positions as inflation rises.

Attention also focused on a looming US jobs report due Friday, with the idea it would confirm a gentle slowdown in the economy that could allow the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early next year.

After global equities rallied in November on optimism that the Fed was done with its rate-hike cycle, markets have pulled back on concerns the buying was overdone.

Data released this week on US job openings and from the private payroll firm ADP reinforced the view that the labor market and economy were slowing as inflation comes down. Jobless benefits claims data held steady.

"The slowdown in hiring continues and is becoming more obvious," said Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report.

"What I'm mostly focused on right now is the trajectory of activity -- and all I see is slowing in multiple places, including now the labor market."

Key figures around 2140 GMT

New York - Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 36,117.38 (close)

New York - S&P 500: UP 0.8 percent at 4,585.59 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: UP 1.4 percent at 14,339.99 (close)

London - FTSE 100: FLAT at 7,513.72 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.1 percent at 7,428.52 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.2 percent at 16,628.99 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.2 percent at 4,473.77 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 32,858.31 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 16,345.89 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 2,966.21 (close)

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 144.10 yen from 147.31 yen on Wednesday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0797 from $1.0773

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2587 from $1.2560

Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.76 pence from 85.77 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.1 percent at $69.34 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.3 percent at $74.05 per barrel

burs-rl-jmb

trade

US, Mexico to boost cooperation on foreign investment screening

BY BEIYI SEOW

- Secure supply chains - As Mexico attracts investments to supply the United States, Yellen said the country would "continue supporting the creation of reliable, secure supply chains" spanning the neighbors.

The United States and Mexico plan to form a working group on foreign investment screening to guard against national security threats, officials said Thursday, as Washington pushes to shift supply chains toward trusted partners.
- Secure supply chains - As Mexico attracts investments to supply the United States, Yellen said the country would "continue supporting the creation of reliable, secure supply chains" spanning the neighbors.

The United States and Mexico plan to form a working group on foreign investment screening to guard against national security threats, officials said Thursday, as Washington pushes to shift supply chains toward trusted partners.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Mexican Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O reached the agreement as she ends a three-day visit to Mexico City, where she also sought to further the fight against fentanyl trafficking and deepen economic ties.

The working group will exchange technical knowledge and best practices, Yellen said.

She drew parallels with the US investment screening regime -- involving the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a government agency that assesses foreign investments' risks to US national security.

"Increased engagement with Mexico will help maintain an open investment climate while monitoring and addressing security risks," Yellen told reporters.

'No problem with China'

The pact does not mention specific countries, but comes amid concerns that China or others could find ways to get around US trade restrictions.

Asked about Chinese investment in Mexico, Yellen said at a press briefing that there needs to be "appropriate national security screens," adding that investments should also not create national security concerns for Mexico or the United States.

If so, "we have absolutely no problem with China investing in Mexico to produce goods and services that will import into the United States," she said. "That's not a concern for us."

CFIUS has recently been scrutinizing TikTok, owned by Chinese group ByteDance, but Yellen stressed that the vast majority of Chinese investments in the United States are approved.

She noted the need to be more coordinated in investment screening, adding that the United States is having similar conversations with others such as partners in Europe.

"Some of whom have much less advanced or no really systematic screening of foreign investments," she said.

Secure supply chains

As Mexico attracts investments to supply the United States, Yellen said the country would "continue supporting the creation of reliable, secure supply chains" spanning the neighbors.

Asked about potential strains to business ties between China and Mexico, Ramirez de la O stressed the "dominant" nature of Mexico's commercial and financial ties with the United States.

Mexico, the United States and Canada participate in the USMCA free-trade agreement, an updated version of NAFTA negotiated under then-president Donald Trump.

This month, Washington proposed new rules surrounding its electric vehicle subsidies, limiting material that producers can source from Chinese firms and others, as officials spelled out how companies could be considered a foreign entity of concern.

"This working group recognizes the fact that US national security is linked to the security of our allies and partners, including our neighbors in North America," said Paul Rosen, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for investment security.

On Thursday, US and Mexican teams also met to discuss cross-border payments, Yellen said, including the possibility of more deeply integrating both sides' payments systems.

"We see that this level of financial cooperation gives us the opportunity to take on subjects that are of interest to Mexico," Ramirez de la O said. This includes in digital payments and lowering remittance costs.

US-Mexico trade reached over $850 billion in 2022 and this year, Mexico became America's largest goods trading partner.

bys/des

trade

US, Mexico to boost cooperation on foreign investment screening

BY BEIYI SEOW

- Secure supply chains - As Mexico attracts investments to supply the United States, Yellen said the country would "continue supporting the creation of reliable, secure supply chains" spanning the neighbors.

The United States and Mexico plan to form a working group on foreign investment screening to guard against national security threats, officials said Thursday, as Washington pushes to shift supply chains toward trusted partners.
- Secure supply chains - As Mexico attracts investments to supply the United States, Yellen said the country would "continue supporting the creation of reliable, secure supply chains" spanning the neighbors.