Global Edition

Stocks tumble, oil jumps on Trump's Iran ultimatum

  • Iran warned Hormuz "will be completely closed" if Trump acted on his threat.
  • Stocks tumbled Monday and oil prices jumped after Donald Trump and Iranian leaders traded threats over the key Strait of Hormuz, while Israel said the Middle East war could last several more weeks.
  • Iran warned Hormuz "will be completely closed" if Trump acted on his threat.
Stocks tumbled Monday and oil prices jumped after Donald Trump and Iranian leaders traded threats over the key Strait of Hormuz, while Israel said the Middle East war could last several more weeks.
With the conflict now in its fourth week and showing no sign of ending, the head of the International Energy Agency warned of the worst global energy crisis in decades and said the world economy was under "major threat" from it.
Observers, meanwhile, have also raised the prospect of a surge in inflation that could force central banks to hike interest rates, while the choking off of fertiliser shipments has also fanned concerns about global food security.
The US president on Saturday gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure.
The ultimatum, made just a day after the US leader said he was considering "winding down" military operations, came as the waterway -- through which a fifth of global oil and gas flows -- remained effectively closed.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US would "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants -- "starting with the biggest one first" -- if Tehran did not fully reopen the strait within 48 hours, or 23:44 GMT on Monday, according to the time of his post.
That came a day after Trump ruled out a ceasefire agreement, saying Washington had the upper hand.
Iran warned Hormuz "will be completely closed" if Trump acted on his threat.
And powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened to irreversibly destroy vital infrastructure across the region, which he said would cause oil prices to rise "for a long time", if Tehran's own infrastructure was hit.
Iranian media reported explosions in Tehran on Monday as Israel announced it launched another wave of strikes, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reported coming under fresh attacks.
The latest escalation came as Israel's military said it will expand its ground operations in Lebanon against Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, while a spokesman said the country faced "weeks" more fighting against Iran and Hezbollah.

Deadline focus

The escalation hammered stock markets, with Seoul and Tokyo -- which had been the standout performers before the war started -- taking the brunt of the selling, shedding 6.5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.
Hong Kong and Shanghai shed more than three percent, while Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai, Bangkok and Manila all lost between two and three percent. Sydney and Wellington were also deep in negative territory.
London, Paris and Frankfurt opened sharply lower.
South Korea's won dropped to 1,510 won per dollar, its weakest level since 2009.
Oil prices jumped more than two percent with Brent above $114 and West Texas Intermediate topping $101.
"The outcome and Trump's next steps, particularly in the event of escalation, would have significant implications for markets through the remainder of the week and into month and quarter end," wrote Pepperstone's Chris Weston.
He added that while the president has often pulled back from the brink on issues in the past, Trump "has also shown credibility in following through with military action when demands are not met, so markets will place weight on his weekend post on Truth Social".
"If we move past the deadline, focus will quickly shift to the scale of any action against Iran and the nature of Iran's response, particularly toward US bases and its allies."
IEA boss Fatih Birol said Monday: "The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible.
"No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction. So there is a need for global efforts."
Birol added that the world was losing more oil each day than the combined impact of both 1970s oil shocks and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
His remarks came as central banks reconsider their monetary policies amid expectations that the surge in oil prices will send inflation soaring, with the Reserve Bank of Australia last week hiking interest rates.
The prospect of higher borrowing costs has hammered non-yielding gold, which has fallen for eight straight days and just suffered its worst weekly drop since 1983.
Bullion was sitting around $4,350 Monday, having hit a record high of almost $5,600 at the end of January.

Key figures at around 0815 GMT

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 3.5 percent at 51,515.49 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 3.5 percent to 24,382.47 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 3.6 percent at 3,813.28 (close)
London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.5 percent at 9,773.76 
West Texas Intermediate: UP 3.5 percent at $101.64 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.7 percent at $114.11 per barrel
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1528 from $1.1550 on Friday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3293 from $1.3323
Dollar/yen: UP at 159.58 yen from 159.30 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 86.73 pence from 86.68 pence
New York - Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 45,577.47 (close)
dan/abs

US

Mideast war threatens energy crisis worse than 1970s oil shocks

BY AFP TEAMS IN TEHRAN, WASHINGTON, JERUSALEM, BEIRUT AND DUBAI

  • In a stark warning over what lies ahead unless the fighting ends soon, IEA chief Fatih Birol said the world was losing more oil each day than the combined impact of both 1970s oil shocks and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
  • The world faces an energy crisis worse than both 1970s oil shocks combined if the Middle East war drags on, the head of the International Energy Agency warned Monday, as Israel launched fresh strikes on Tehran and threatened weeks more fighting.
  • In a stark warning over what lies ahead unless the fighting ends soon, IEA chief Fatih Birol said the world was losing more oil each day than the combined impact of both 1970s oil shocks and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The world faces an energy crisis worse than both 1970s oil shocks combined if the Middle East war drags on, the head of the International Energy Agency warned Monday, as Israel launched fresh strikes on Tehran and threatened weeks more fighting.
As the war grinds into its fourth week, US President Donald Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if Iran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours -- setting an effective deadline of 23:44 GMT Monday.
Tehran has retaliated against US-Israeli assaults by throttling traffic in the vital waterway, conduit for a fifth of global crude oil, hitting energy sites and US embassies across the Gulf as well as firing missiles and drones at Israel.
The Islamic republic issued a firm response to the new ultimatum, with powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf vowing vital infrastructure across the region will be "irreversibly destroyed" if Trump acts on his threat.
In a stark warning over what lies ahead unless the fighting ends soon, IEA chief Fatih Birol said the world was losing more oil each day than the combined impact of both 1970s oil shocks and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together," Birol said. 
"No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction."
At least 40 energy assets across the oil- and gas-exporting region have already been "severely or very severely damaged", Birol said, with oil prices driven above $100 a barrel over supply fears.
In recent days, Iran has allowed a handful of vessels from countries it considers friendly to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but warned it would block ships from nations joining the "aggression" against it.
Oil prices rose again Monday while stocks tumbled after Trump and Iranian leaders traded threats -- and Israel said the Middle East war could last several more weeks.
Further sign of the real-world impact far beyond the region, a major Cambodian energy supplier said it would halt sales of liquefied petroleum gas due to war-linked supply disruptions.

 'Weeks' more fighting

Weighing in from Beijing, China's foreign ministry warned in response to Trump's latest threats that further fighting risks creating an "uncontrollable situation" in the Middle East.
But the US leader has offered varying timelines and objectives for the war, saying Friday he was considering "winding down" the operation -- only to later threaten Iran's power plants.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of a long-term campaign against Iran's government, a state sponsor of Hamas, which launched the October 7, 2023 attack against Israel, triggering the war in Gaza.
Israel launched fresh strikes Monday at Iran on Monday, with an AFP journalist witnessing a thick column of black smoke rising above Tehran, while Israel's military urged people to take over as it worked to intercept missiles fired from Iran.
Israel has also expanded its ground campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, warning of a "weeks of fighting" in the country.
The violence in Lebanon has killed more than 1,000 people, according to the health ministry, with more than a million displaced.
Israeli forces were given orders to destroy bridges they said were used by Hezbollah to cross the key Litani river, 30 kilometres (20 miles) north of the border -- in what Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called "a dangerous escalation" seen as a prelude to a ground invasion.

Iran takes toll in Israel

Israel prides itself on its air defences, and Trump and Netanyahu both claim to have knocked out key Iranian military sites.
But Iranian missiles evaded the defences over the weekend to land in two southern towns, including Dimona, close to Israel's desert nuclear facility, injuring dozens on Saturday.
"We thought we were safe," Galit Amir, a 50-year-old care provider, told AFP in Dimona. "We didn't expect this."
According to rescuers, a missile landed about five kilometres from what is widely believed to be the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal -- although Israel has never admitted to possessing nuclear weapons, insisting the site is for research.
Iran said it was retaliating against a hit on its own nuclear site at Natanz, but Israel's military said it was "not aware of a strike".
In Iran, at least 3,230 people have died in the war, including 1,406 civilians, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. AFP is not able to access the sites of strikes nor independently verify tolls in Iran.
burs-ec/ser

LaGuardia

Pilot, co-pilot killed in runway collision at New York airport

BY ANGELA WEISS

  • The pilot and co-pilot were killed in the collision, US media including CNN and NBC reported.
  • A plane carrying dozens of people collided with a fire truck late Sunday on a runway at New York's LaGuardia airport, killing the pilot and co-pilot and forcing a halt to flights, authorities and US media reported.
  • The pilot and co-pilot were killed in the collision, US media including CNN and NBC reported.
A plane carrying dozens of people collided with a fire truck late Sunday on a runway at New York's LaGuardia airport, killing the pilot and co-pilot and forcing a halt to flights, authorities and US media reported.
AFP pictures showed the heavily damaged nose and cockpit section of the Air Canada Express plane, which had arrived from Montreal, on the tarmac flanked by emergency vehicles with their lights flashing.
The pilot and co-pilot were killed in the collision, US media including CNN and NBC reported. Another 13 people, including 11 passengers and two first responders, were taken to the hospital with injuries, according to broadcaster ABC.
The aircraft operated by Jazz Aviation, a regional partner of Air Canada, struck a firefighting truck on Runway 4 at around 11:40 pm on Sunday (0340 GMT Monday) as the vehicle drove to a separate incident, New York's port authority said.
A preliminary passenger list showed 76 people on board, including four crew members, Jazz Aviation said in a statement.
US aviation authorities ordered all flights at the airport to be grounded, adding there was a "high" likelihood of an extended suspension.
"The airport is currently closed to facilitate the response and allow for a thorough investigation," the port authority said in a statement to AFP.
Emergency response protocols had been "immediately activated," it said.

Runway crash

The National Transportation Safety Board said it had sent a "go team" to the scene to investigate the collision.
Jazz Aviation said the crash involved a CRJ-900 aircraft that had flown into LaGuardia from Montreal as flight AC8646.
Flight tracking platform FlightRadar24 said the plane "was rolling down the runway when it struck" the rescue vehicle as it crossed its path.
New York's emergency management authority warned people to "expect cancellations, road closures, traffic delays & emergency personnel," and use alternate routes near the airport.
LaGuardia had already been suffering from flight disruptions due to poor weather, the airport said Sunday on X.
Passengers were also waiting longer to pass security due to "staffing impacts" from a federal funding lapse, it said last week.
Located in the New York borough of Queens, LaGuardia is New York's third-busiest airport, serving 33.5 million passengers in 2024, according to port authority figures.
It completed an $8 billion redevelopment in 2024, upgrading its aging infrastructure with new terminals and roadways.
Deadly air crashes in the United States in recent years include a collision between a passenger jet and an army helicopter near Washington in January 2025 that killed 67 people.
Other incidents and close calls have taken place while aircraft were on the ground.
bur-mjw-lkd/jm

US

War in the Middle East: latest developments

  • In an interview with the Al Hadath network, Salam once again lashed out at Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into the Middle East war by firing rockets at Israel.
  • Here are the latest developments in the Middle East war on Monday: - 'Uncontrollable situation' - Asked about US President Donald Trump's threats to "obliterate" Iran's power plants, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian warned that "If the war expands further and the situation deteriorates again, the entire region could be plunged into an uncontrollable situation."
  • In an interview with the Al Hadath network, Salam once again lashed out at Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into the Middle East war by firing rockets at Israel.
Here are the latest developments in the Middle East war on Monday:

'Uncontrollable situation'

Asked about US President Donald Trump's threats to "obliterate" Iran's power plants, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian warned that "If the war expands further and the situation deteriorates again, the entire region could be plunged into an uncontrollable situation."

Israel interceptions

Israel's military said defensive systems were working to intercept the latest salvo of missiles fired from Iran and urged people to take cover.
On Saturday Iranian missiles evaded defences and injured dozens when they hit two southern towns close to Israel's desert nuclear facility.

Economic 'crisis'

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said "the global economy is facing a major, major threat" and compared the current energy crisis to those of the 1970s and the impact of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together," Birol said, adding that no country will be immune to its effects.

Gulf nations attacks

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates repelled fresh attacks, while sirens sounded in Bahrain.
Abu Dhabi authorities said an Indian national had been wounded by falling debris from an intercepted ballistic missile. 

'Wide-scale' strikes

Israel's military said it launched "a wide-scale wave of strikes" on Tehran.
Iranian media reported explosions ringing out over the capital, while an AFP journalist saw a thick column of black smoke rising at least an hour later.

France 'solidarity'

French President Emmanuel Macron wrote on X that he spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to express "solidarity" with the kingdom and reiterate France's commitment to contributing to air defences against Iranian missiles and drones.

US embassy attacks pause

Kataeb Hezbollah -- an Iran-backed armed group in Iraq -- says it will extend its five-day pause on attacking the US embassy in Baghdad, announced Thursday.  
Since the start of the war in the Middle East, pro-Iran armed groups have claimed responsibility for near-daily attacks on US interests in Iraq and across the region, while strikes have also targeted these groups. 

Lebanon raps Hezbollah

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards are commanding Hezbollah's operations in the group's war against Israel.
In an interview with the Al Hadath network, Salam once again lashed out at Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into the Middle East war by firing rockets at Israel.

Lebanon ground ops

Israel's military will expand its ground operations in Lebanon against Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, its army chief said, warning that the offensive "has only (just) begun".
"We are now preparing to advance the targeted ground operations and strikes according to an organised plan," Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir said in a statement.

'Weeks' more

Israeli military spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin said in a televised briefing that the country faces "weeks" more fighting against both Iran and Hezbollah.

Iraq strikes

Three strikes targeted an influential pro-Iranian armed group in its stronghold south of Baghdad, Iraqi authorities said.
The group is a former paramilitary coalition called Hashed al-Shaabi, also known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). It is part of Iraq's regular armed forces, but also includes some pro-Iranian groups.
The strikes came after an attack targeted a US diplomatic and logistics centre at Baghdad International Airport, Iraqi officials told AFP.

Israel death probed

Israel's military said it was investigating whether its own fire killed an Israeli civilian near the Lebanese border, in an area where Hezbollah claimed an attack.
Israeli emergency workers said earlier a man was killed in a "direct hit" on his car by a rocket from Lebanon, making him the first fatality in the country's north since the latest round of fighting with Hezbollah broke out.
But the Israeli army later said it was "conducting a comprehensive investigation", including "the possibility that the incident involved fire originating from IDF soldiers".

West Bank arson

Palestinian residents said Israeli settlers had torched buildings and cars in attacks on several villages in the occupied West Bank, the latest violence after a spate of killings of Palestinians by Israelis in the area since the start of the war.
burs/yad/gv

trade

EU chief in Australia with eyes on trade deal

  • Von der Leyen is joined by EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic -- sparking speculation the two sides may finally put pen to paper on a long-awaited free trade deal.
  • EU chief Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Australia on Monday, with hopes a free trade deal can be struck after years of negotiations.
  • Von der Leyen is joined by EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic -- sparking speculation the two sides may finally put pen to paper on a long-awaited free trade deal.
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Australia on Monday, with hopes a free trade deal can be struck after years of negotiations.
It is the EU chief's first trip to Australia since taking office and comes as the bloc and import-reliant nation navigate renewed energy vulnerability sparked by the war in the Middle East.
She arrived in Sydney on Monday for a meeting with Australia's head of the state, the Governor-General, and a traditional welcoming ceremony.
From Sydney, the EU chief will head to Canberra, where she is expected to meet Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and address the country's parliament.
Von der Leyen is joined by EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic -- sparking speculation the two sides may finally put pen to paper on a long-awaited free trade deal.
Both are still ironing out the details of the agreement, with improved access to the European market for Australia's lamb and beef a key source of contention.
Australia has previously said it could drop a luxury car tax on European vehicles in return for greater access to the EU agriculture market.
The country's use of geographical indicator names for cheese and wine products was also a sticking point.
Australia's largest export market is China and the United States is its largest source of investment.
But Canberra has redoubled efforts to diversify export markets for farmers since a 2020 dispute with Beijing saw agriculture exports blocked for several years, and then last year's global imposition of US trade tariffs.
The European Union is Australia's third largest two-way trading partner and second largest source of foreign investment.
Trade Minister Don Farrell last week said that an EU deal would add Aus$10 billion (US$7.1 billion) in trade for Australia in the first year.
"They are potentially our second largest trading partner if we can pull this off, and we've just got to get over those last few hurdles," he told Sky News Australia.
Front and centre in meetings will also likely be the war in the Middle East, which has sent oil prices soaring.
In Canberra, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said on Monday the world faced an energy crisis not seen in decades if the conflict was not resolved.
And Von der Leyen this month said the conflict had served as a "stark reminder" of the continent's vulnerabilities.
Australia -- which is heavily reliant on fuel from abroad -- has also felt the pressure from the global energy squeeze.
While conceding that some petrol stations had run out of fuel, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said Monday the country was a "long way" from rationing.
kln-oho/ane

Israel

Global economy under 'major threat' from Strait of Hormuz crisis: IEA chief

  • "No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.
  • The global economy is under "major threat" from the energy crisis caused by the Middle East war and "no country will be immune" to its effects, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said Monday.
  • "No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.
The global economy is under "major threat" from the energy crisis caused by the Middle East war and "no country will be immune" to its effects, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said Monday.
Speaking at the National Press Club in Australia's capital, Birol compared the current energy crisis to those of the 1970s and the impact of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together," Birol said.
"The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible. 
"No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction. So there is a need for global efforts."
US President Donald Trump and Tehran have issued tit-for-tat threats as the war entered its fourth week, with the US president demanding the Islamic republic reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of the world's oil and gas shipments transit. 
The bottleneck has nearly halted all petroleum shipments through the narrow waterway.
Oil prices rose again early Monday, with US benchmark crude briefly touching the $100-per-barrel mark.
Birol told Australian media that at least forty energy assets across the region had been "severely or very severely damaged" in the conflict.
oho/tc

environment

Middle East war to dominate Houston's 'Davos of Energy'

BY NINA ISENI

  • The attacks on critical energy facilities in Iran, Qatar and other Gulf countries have exacerbated a global oil and gas supply picture already upended by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Energy industry leaders will converge on Texas this week for an annual conference dominated by oil and gas supply disruptions from the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.
  • The attacks on critical energy facilities in Iran, Qatar and other Gulf countries have exacerbated a global oil and gas supply picture already upended by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy industry leaders will converge on Texas this week for an annual conference dominated by oil and gas supply disruptions from the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.
More than 10,000 attendees are expected for CERAWeek, the spring gathering in Houston that has taken on unexpected importance as fuel prices soar since the Mideast war began in late February.
"It will be a CERAWeek for the ages," said Mark Brownstein, senior vice president of energy at the Environmental Defense Fund.
The attacks on critical energy facilities in Iran, Qatar and other Gulf countries have exacerbated a global oil and gas supply picture already upended by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"We're looking at the biggest disruption in world oil in history," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and the chair of the conference. "Nothing like this is on this scale has occurred before."
From Monday the conference will bring together  experts from industry, finance, government and academia to discuss energy and myriad related topics including international trade, artificial intelligence, the hunt for critical minerals and the prospects for new nuclear capacity.
Of particular interest will be a Monday morning session with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a critical player in President Donald Trump's administration's response to the recent surge in gasoline prices. 
Other big names appearing at CERAWeek include Chevron chief Mike Wirth, TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne, Shell chief Wael Sawan, Saudi Aramco's  Amin Nasser and Cheniere Energy boss Jack Fusco.

Machado to appear

Beyond the Middle East war, much of the attention this year will again focus on the profound reorientation of US energy and environmental policy under Trump.
Since returning to the White House in January 2025, he has embraced fossil fuels, including coal, while tearing up most of his predecessor Joe Biden's policies aimed at mitigating climate change.
His attacks on policies that encouraged electric vehicles and renewable energy have infuriated environmentalists, including the Texas Campaign for the Environment, an NGO that plans a rally on the first day of CERAWeek.
This year's conference also features a plenary event with Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, who will speak Tuesday night on "the Future of Venezuela."
Despite its vast natural resources including the world's biggest proven oil reserves, Venezuela has seen its energy sector deteriorate due to US restrictions on foreign investment and the Venezuelan government's mismanagement and underinvestment.
But the US seizure of president Nicolas Maduro on January 3 has opened up new possibilities, as Washington has lifted key sanctions while prodding oil giants to return to the country.
"I'm thrilled to show the world what a new Venezuela will achieve by unleashing our limitless energy potential," Machado posted about CERAWeek on X.
ni-jmb/js/dw

politics

China's premier vows to expand global 'trade pie': state media

  • The Chinese premier added that Beijing would work with other countries to "join forces to make the global economic and trade pie larger for everyone".
  • China's number two leader Li Qiang said Sunday that his country was willing to help expand the global "trade pie" by further opening up, state media reported, while he slammed unilateralism from certain countries.
  • The Chinese premier added that Beijing would work with other countries to "join forces to make the global economic and trade pie larger for everyone".
China's number two leader Li Qiang said Sunday that his country was willing to help expand the global "trade pie" by further opening up, state media reported, while he slammed unilateralism from certain countries.
Many of China's key trading partners have increasingly called on Beijing to reduce its soaring trade surplus owing to its impact on local competition.
Its trade surged by a fifth in the first two months of the year, official data showed earlier this month, significantly outpacing forecasts.
China "will steadfastly advance high-level opening up, import more high-quality foreign goods, and work alongside all parties to promote the optimised and balanced development of trade", Premier Li Qiang told business executives in Beijing on Sunday, according to Xinhua.
Li was speaking at the opening of the annual China Development Forum, attended this year by prominent business leaders including Apple CEO Tim Cook.
The Chinese premier added that Beijing would work with other countries to "join forces to make the global economic and trade pie larger for everyone".
He slammed growing unilateralism and protectionism, which he said was "no panacea for resolving problems".
Beijing has been seeking to steer a shaky economy onto a more stable path since the end of the pandemic, particularly by boosting consumption.
It had been locked in a blistering trade war last year with Washington after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on countries including China. 
The recent trade boost is a lifeline for China, the world's second-largest economy, as domestic consumer activity has slumped, and adds to the record surplus achieved last year.
The China Development Forum convenes as the Middle East war, triggered by US and Israeli strikes on Iran, rages on.
Tehran has retaliated with strikes across the region and beyond in a conflict that has threatened global energy security as well as China's oil supplies.
Li told the Chinese officials and global business executives the international rules-based order was suffering "severe disruption" with power politics "running rampant".
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with senior representatives of multinational companies including HSBC, UBS, Schneider Electric and Standard Chartered on Saturday, Xinhua reported.
isk/fox

US

Sri Lanka raises fuel prices by 25 percent as war bites

  • Last week, the government ordered an eight percent increase in retail fuel prices and introduced rationing to limit consumption.
  • Sri Lanka raised fuel prices by 25 percent on Sunday, the second increase in two weeks, as the country prepared for more impact from the war in the Middle East.
  • Last week, the government ordered an eight percent increase in retail fuel prices and introduced rationing to limit consumption.
Sri Lanka raised fuel prices by 25 percent on Sunday, the second increase in two weeks, as the country prepared for more impact from the war in the Middle East.
Regular petrol was increased to 398 rupees ($1.30) per litre, up from 317 rupees, while diesel, the fuel commonly used for public transport, rose by 79 rupees to 382.
Last week, the government ordered an eight percent increase in retail fuel prices and introduced rationing to limit consumption.
"We hope to achieve a 15 to 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption with the latest increase," an official at the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation said.
He said President Anura Kumara Dissanayake told them last week that the country must prepare for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that could affect the island’s energy supplies.
The president ordered a four-day working week from last Wednesday and asked employers to reintroduce work-from-home arrangements where possible.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which some 20 percent of global oil exports pass in peacetime, has been effectively closed by Iran in retaliation over the US and Israeli war against it, now entering its fourth week.
Sri Lanka imports all of its oil and also buys coal for electricity generation.
Sri Lanka buys refined petroleum products from Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea, while crude oil for its Iran-built refinery is sourced from the Middle East.
The government has warned that the fighting in the Middle East, and a prolonged war, could seriously undermine its efforts to emerge from the economic meltdown of 2022.
Sri Lanka defaulted on its $46 billion foreign debt in 2022 after the country ran out of foreign exchange. Since then, Colombo has secured a $2.9 billion IMF bailout.
aj/pzb/fox

trade

US-China 'Board of Trade' may help ties but experts flag market worries

BY BEIYI SEOW

  • "That's not a good sign," he told AFP. "Where are the market forces?"
  • As Washington and Beijing mull a new mechanism to adjust trade between the world's two largest economies, some analysts warn that it could interfere with market forces, while others consider it a path to smoother coexistence.
  • "That's not a good sign," he told AFP. "Where are the market forces?"
As Washington and Beijing mull a new mechanism to adjust trade between the world's two largest economies, some analysts warn that it could interfere with market forces, while others consider it a path to smoother coexistence.
What is the managed approach to trade that Donald Trump's administration is seeking with China, as both sides work towards the US president's potential meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the coming weeks?

What is a 'Board of Trade'?

After top US economic officials held talks with their Chinese counterparts in Paris last weekend, US trade envoy Jamieson Greer said both sides discussed creating a "US-China Board of Trade."
The mechanism would help to formalize and identify what kinds of goods the United States should be exporting to and importing from China, he said.
The board could look into opportunities for expanding trade in non-sensitive products, or discuss mutual tariff reduction in non-strategic sectors, said Wendy Cutler of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
For now, officials appear to have made progress towards Chinese purchase commitments for agriculture, energy and planes from the United States, added Cutler, a former US trade official.

Is this new to US-China ties?

The talks come as Washington looks towards "managed trade," which Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said focuses on outcomes rather than policies.
This could mean import commitments or voluntary export restraints, as in the case of Japan in the 1980s to manage the flow of autos into the United States, he said.
A more recent example is the "Phase One" deal that Washington signed with Beijing during Trump's first presidency, marking a truce in their trade war, Bown added.
The agreement saw China agree to import an added $200 billion in US products over two years -- although China did not meet the commitment.

Why has this sparked worry?

"Instead of taking regulations out, tariffs down, and making it easier for customers and companies to decide what they sell at what prices, it (would be) more mechanized," said Joerg Wuttke, a partner at advisory firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group.
"That's not a good sign," he told AFP. "Where are the market forces?"
Such an approach is also not good for competitiveness, and could fuel concern among other trading partners, Wuttke warned.
A US-based business leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that managing trade raises concerns over how Washington will decide which industries to prioritize, and which sectors will benefit.

Does it help the relationship?

Bown of PIIE believes a managed trade agreement between the United States and China could be more successful than previous attempts to solve economic conflicts. 
The question is whether this leads to "a more sustainable, longer-term relationship" that is better than a "constant back and forth of conflict," he said.
"It's clear the old system didn't work. Could we try a new system that might work?"
But any trade agreement would have to be realistic and acceptable to both parties.
"You'd have to have a sincere commitment by both sides to make this work," he added. "Even then, it's going to be really, really hard."
bys/aha/acb

China

Kenya, Uganda double down on rail extension burdened by Chinese debt

  • Kenya now spends roughly $1 billion a year servicing Chinese debt, most of it borrowed to build the railway.
  • The presidents of Kenya and Uganda met near their shared border Saturday to mark the multi-billion-dollar, long-delayed extension of a Chinese-built railway that has left Kenya heavily in debt.
  • Kenya now spends roughly $1 billion a year servicing Chinese debt, most of it borrowed to build the railway.
The presidents of Kenya and Uganda met near their shared border Saturday to mark the multi-billion-dollar, long-delayed extension of a Chinese-built railway that has left Kenya heavily in debt.
The Standard Gauge Railway, built from 2013 to 2019, connects the Kenyan port of Mombasa to its capital Nairobi, and on to the lake town of Naivasha, but China refused further lending before it could be extended to Uganda as planned.
Kenya now spends roughly $1 billion a year servicing Chinese debt, most of it borrowed to build the railway.
That is far more than the line generates in revenue -- around $165 million last year -- even if passenger and cargo numbers have been growing strongly over the past year.
A report by Kenya's auditor general last year found more than $260 million had been wasted just on penalties and interest from late debt payments.
Yet despite the controversy over the cost, Kenya has been keen to finish the line.
Kenyan President William Ruto said the rail link will "define generations", speaking at a ceremony in grand pomp and circumstance with his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni in Kisumu, near the Kenya-Uganda border.
Ruto argued the line would slash logistics costs that "undermine competitiveness" in east Africa.
If the ambitious building schedule is to be believed, the line is due to reach Kisumu by June 2027. The next phase will then take the line to Malaba, a town on the border.
"Cargo takes an average of 80 hours to move from Mombasa to Malaba and more than 100 hours to reach Kampala," the Ugandan capital, Ruto said.
"We cannot build prosperity on inefficiency."

'Irrational and wasteful'

Museveni said the line would reduce the inefficiencies in his own country's infrastructure.
"The railway is part of the rationalisation of our transport system, especially on the Uganda side, which is irrational and wasteful," the veteran leader told the ceremony.
Later, he posted on X that "by shifting bulk cargo from roads to rail and pipelines, we reduce transport costs, protect infrastructure and improve efficiency".
Ruto broke ground on the next phase in Narok County on Thursday, arguing that it will create jobs and reduce road congestion.
"We have thought through this project (and)... its finance," he insisted.
Treasury estimates say the overall cost will be more than 500 billion shillings ($3.9 billion), according to Kenya's Business Daily.
Kenya is not taking more cash from Chinese banks this time -- instead borrowing against future cargo taxes -- though it is partnering with Chinese transport firms to build the new phase.
China lent Kenya $9.7 billion between 2000 and 2019, according to the Chinese Loans to Africa Database by Boston University, with around half of that going to the railway.
It stopped lending from 2020 to 2023 as Kenya struggled to make repayments, at a time when China revised its broader lending strategy in Africa.
Kenya considers the railway extension crucial for strengthening trade through east and central Africa, hoping to reach landlocked countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and the mineral-rich Democratic Republic of Congo.
er-jcp/sbk/jhb/gv/rmb

music

K-pop kings BTS stun Seoul in '2.0' comeback concert

BY CLAIRE LEE

  • Spotify said five million fans pre-saved it, the highest ever for a K-pop act, and that it was the most-streamed album in a single day so far this year.
  • South Korean megastars BTS performed their first show in nearly four years on Saturday in front of enormous crowds in Seoul for a K-pop extravaganza livestreamed to millions more worldwide.
  • Spotify said five million fans pre-saved it, the highest ever for a K-pop act, and that it was the most-streamed album in a single day so far this year.
South Korean megastars BTS performed their first show in nearly four years on Saturday in front of enormous crowds in Seoul for a K-pop extravaganza livestreamed to millions more worldwide.
Widely lauded as the biggest boy band in the world, BTS went on hiatus in 2022 so the seven members could serve compulsory military service, some near the heavily fortified border with North Korea.
The comeback concert had as its backdrop the historic Gyeongbokgung royal palace -- fitting for the "Kings of K-pop" -- with thousands of fans from South Korea and abroad singing along.
"It's been a long journey but now we are finally here!" said BTS's leader RM -- whose injured ankle meant he had to perch on a stool at times -- as the group performed songs from their new album, as well as old hits "Dynamite" and "Mikrokosmos".
"We are finally here and seeing you again... all seven of us standing on the stage together makes me so happy," said fellow member Jimin to cheers.
"BTS 2.0 is just getting started," said J-Hope.
Fans -- 260,000 were predicted earlier -- descended on Seoul from morning onwards in colourful costumes, taking selfies with their tickets and clutching BTS "ARMY" glowsticks.
Before they came on stage the crowd chanted "BTS! BTS!" with the main boulevard leading up to Gwanghwamun Square ram-packed with people as far as the eye could see.
Gwanghwamun Gate was lit in rainbow colours before the show started, as a massive stage installation featuring three circular features -- symbolising BTS's new album "Arirang" -- glowed beneath towering lighting rigs.
The megastars admitted to some nerves, with member J-Hope telling fans "there were moments when we wondered whether we might be somewhat forgotten, or whether you would remember us".
Jimin said: "We are not such special people. We are afraid every time, but we believed that if we showed you our sincerity, it would reach you."
Fans responded with a sea of glowsticks, singing along the songs while holding their phones high up to film their stars.
"It's great that the show was held in Gwanghwamun, but it would have been just as good anywhere -- even in a much smaller venue," Park Young-mi, 34, a South Korean fan, told AFP.
"Fans have been waiting unwaveringly, and I hope they felt that today."
"Seeing them on stage just felt as if I was being welcomed into a family... it felt very expressive and beautiful and you could just see it from the people who were here too," gushed Gabriel Miranda, 34, from the United States.
"It's a bit different from BTS's usual flavour, but seeing this new side of them at this historic place is deeply moving," said Jo Jung-hee, 60, her phone featuring a photo of BTS member V.
Millions more people across the world were able to watch the show broadcast live on Netflix.
The latest album, "ARIRANG", which was released on Friday, is billed as a reflection of the maturing boy band's Korean identity.
It sold almost four million copies in the first day, BTS's record label said.
Spotify said five million fans pre-saved it, the highest ever for a K-pop act, and that it was the most-streamed album in a single day so far this year.
"ARIRANG" takes its name from a folk song about longing and separation that is often dubbed South Korea's unofficial national anthem.
Featuring collaborations with multiple Western artists and producers, the 14 tracks on the album mix rap, heavy beats and experimentation.
"Compared to their earlier work, there's a wider range of genres, which gives it a more mature and expansive feel," Lee Ji-young, a university professor, told AFP.

Taylor who?

Saturday's show preceded a world tour set to be a major money-spinner for BTS, potentially outdoing Taylor Swift's recent Eras Tour.
South Korea too -- whose music, films, books, food and cosmetics are all the rage -- will benefit thanks to tourism and sales of merchandise from BTS dolls to toothbrushes and cans of tuna.
Starting in Goyang, South Korea on April 9 and ending in Manila 11 months later, BTS's tour encompasses 82 shows in 34 cities in 23 countries.
Security was heavy for Saturday's concert, with some 15,000 police and security guards, barricades lining the roads and local venues shut.
Wedding guests had to be transported by police.
BTS -- short for Bulletproof Boy Scouts in Korean -- have championed UNICEF campaigns, the Black Lives Matter movement and efforts to combat anti-Asian racism.
Members have also spoken candidly about the pressures of the music industry.
"Honestly, I became a fan simply because I love their music," Seo Ra-jung, 40, told AFP after the concert.
"I first became a fan during a really difficult period in my life, and their lyrics gave me a lot of strength."
str-cdl/stu/abs

trial

US jury finds Elon Musk misled Twitter shareholders

BY GLENN CHAPMAN

  • The civil complaint in California accused Musk of driving down Twitter's stock price to gain leverage to renegotiate the purchase price or get out of the deal completely, causing people who sold shares to lose money.
  • A federal jury in California found Friday that tech tycoon Elon Musk misled Twitter shareholders, driving down the company's share price as he was poised to buy it in a $44 billion deal.
  • The civil complaint in California accused Musk of driving down Twitter's stock price to gain leverage to renegotiate the purchase price or get out of the deal completely, causing people who sold shares to lose money.
A federal jury in California found Friday that tech tycoon Elon Musk misled Twitter shareholders, driving down the company's share price as he was poised to buy it in a $44 billion deal.
The verdict in the class action securities lawsuit means the world's richest person could be ordered to pay billions of dollars, according to damages calculated by jurors.
Minutes after the judgment was announced, the entrepreneur's lawyers informed AFP that their client will appeal the decision, characterizing it as a "setback."
After a three-week trial in a San Francisco federal court -- which included in-person testimony from Musk -- the jury found that two tweets posted in May 2022 by the Tesla and SpaceX CEO contained false statements responsible for a plunge in Twitter's share price.
Investor Giuseppe Pampena had filed the suit on behalf of people who sold Twitter shares between mid-May and early October 2022.
Musk acquired the social media platform in late October 2022 and later renamed it X.
Jurors agreed that Musk violated a securities rule that bars false and misleading statements that sink a stock price, in this case that of Twitter, the verdict form showed.
An attorney for the plaintiffs estimated the damages at about $2.6 billion.
Musk, who has a near-constant presence on X, did not immediately react to the verdict.

Teflon tycoon?

The judgment marks a rare legal defeat for Musk, often dubbed "Teflon Elon" for his ability to emerge unscathed from lawsuits he is expected to lose.
His lawyers, in fact, reminded AFP of this track record, noting that a Texas court cleared him just that same day in a separate defamation case.
In 2023, a jury in the same San Francisco federal court cleared him within hours of similar charges brought by Tesla shareholders, following his 2018 tweets claiming he had the funding to take the automaker private.
The civil complaint in California accused Musk of driving down Twitter's stock price to gain leverage to renegotiate the purchase price or get out of the deal completely, causing people who sold shares to lose money.
Musk tweeted at one point during the process that the acquisition deal was temporarily on hold until Twitter executives could prove the percentage of "bots" -- fake accounts run by software instead of real users -- was as low as the social media platform claimed.
The plaintiffs contended that these statements were part of a scheme designed to pressure the board of directors into accepting a price lower than his initial offer -- at a time when Tesla's share price was falling, meaning Musk would have to sell more of his shares to finance the deal.
Musk abandoned his effort to get out of buying Twitter in late 2022 after the company took him to court to uphold the contract.
Musk has since merged the social media platform with his artificial intelligence startup xAI and his private space exploration firm SpaceX.
Forbes magazine early this month estimated Elon Musk's net worth at $839 billion, a figure based primarily on his stakes in his portfolio of companies including Tesla and SpaceX.
gc-cl/des/lga/jfx

US

Middle East war: global economic fallout

  • - Iran oil sanctions eased - The US Treasury on Friday temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded onto vessels, in Washington's latest step to stem a supply crisis over the Middle East war.
  • Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war: - Iran's Hormuz offer to Japan - Iran is willing to help Japanese ships sail the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global fuel supplies, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Kyodo News in an interview published on Saturday.
  • - Iran oil sanctions eased - The US Treasury on Friday temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded onto vessels, in Washington's latest step to stem a supply crisis over the Middle East war.
Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war:

Iran's Hormuz offer to Japan

Iran is willing to help Japanese ships sail the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global fuel supplies, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Kyodo News in an interview published on Saturday.
In the telephone interview conducted on Friday, Araghchi denied closing the passageway, saying instead that countries attacking Iran face restrictions while others were being offered assistance.
He added that Iran was prepared to ensure safe passage for Japan.
Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas normally flows, and the numerous attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have sent crude oil prices soaring.

United trims flights as jet fuel costs spike

United Airlines announced Friday that it was scaling back its flight capacities because of soaring jet fuel costs, which the US airline anticipates will keep rising as the war in the Middle East continues.
United chief Scott Kirby said "our plans assume oil goes to $175 a barrel and doesn't get back down to $100 a barrel until the end of 2027."
Earlier, the head of the IATA airline trade association Willie Walsh said an increase in ticket prices is "inevitable" as airlines respond to soaring prices of jet fuel.

Iran oil sanctions eased

The US Treasury on Friday temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded onto vessels, in Washington's latest step to stem a supply crisis over the Middle East war.
The move by the Office of Foreign Assets Control follows a similar lifting of sanctions on Russian oil at sea.
Iranian oil ministry spokesman Saman Ghoddoosi earlier wrote on X that "Iran basically has no surplus crude oil left on the water".

US threatens Kharg oil facility

The White House said the US military could "take out" Kharg Island whenever it wanted, as US media reported that up to 2,500 additional Marines are being deployed to the Middle East.
Kharg, around 30 kilometres (19 miles) off the Iranian mainland, handles almost all of Iran's crude exports.

Damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan could have high cost

An Iranian attack on Qatar's huge Ras Laffan natural gas complex caused "extensive damage" that Qatar's state energy company said could cost $20 billion a year in lost revenue and take five years to repair.

Kuwait refinery ablaze

Drone attacks hit Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery on Friday, causing several fires but no casualties, state media said.
Several refinery units were shut down, the official Kuwait News Agency reported. The Kuwaiti army later said that the fire was brought under control.
Iranian authorities had vowed to retaliate after an Israeli strike on Wednesday damaged its South Pars gas field, which draws on the world's biggest known gas reserve and is vital for domestic supplies.

Vietnam fuel prices soar

The cost of petrol rose more than 20 percent in Vietnam after the government announced an overnight hike amid fears of oil and gas shortages caused by the war.
Southeast Asian countries have borne the brunt of surging diesel prices following strikes against energy infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf states.
The increase has seen the price of regular petrol and diesel rise more than 50 and 70 percent respectively since the conflict began.

Spain chops fuel taxes, freezes rents

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced a five billion euro ($5.8 billion) package aimed at offsetting the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, including a "drastic reduction" in energy taxes.
The package's 80 measures include cuts to the value-added tax on gas and fuel, which could lower prices at the pump by up to 30 cents per litre.
Sanchez also said the government would cap the maximum price of butane and propane, and slash electricity taxes by 60 percent.
burs-aha/js/jgc/ceg/ami

politics

After Cuba beckons, Miami entrepreneurs are mostly reluctant to invest in the island

BY GERARD MARTINEZ

  • This opening by Havana, a serious breach in the island's anti-capitalist system, comes as the Cuban economy teeters on the brink of collapse.
  • Havana announced this week that it would allow Cuban emigrants to invest to address the communist island's severe economic and energy crises.
  • This opening by Havana, a serious breach in the island's anti-capitalist system, comes as the Cuban economy teeters on the brink of collapse.
Havana announced this week that it would allow Cuban emigrants to invest to address the communist island's severe economic and energy crises. But in Miami, the epicenter of the diaspora, entrepreneurs are generally reluctant.
"I don't think a single businessman, not a single Cuban in exile, will invest in this island where there is no legal security," said Ivan Herrera, director of the Univista insurance company, calling the initiative "a huge scam."
The entrepreneur, whose grandfather was a political prisoner for 12 years before fleeing to Miami, refuses to invest under what he calls the "criminal" government.
This opening by Havana, a serious breach in the island's anti-capitalist system, comes as the Cuban economy teeters on the brink of collapse. The shortage of essential goods is worsening daily, and power outages have multiplied since President Donald Trump's administration cut off Venezuelan oil supplies.
Carlos Saladrigas, president of the human resources company Regis HR Group and the think tank Cuba Study Group, viewed the move as a step in the right direction, but said that Cuban authorities needed to resolve many unanswered questions to attract investment.
"Reintegrating the diaspora into the country's economic life is essential for Cuba's future," he said.
"But behind their words lies an entire legal framework that needs to be reformed," Saladrigas said.
"The government has to say: 'We are going to discard traditional socialism and a centrally planned economy and adopt market-based measures.'"

 ‘Extremely risky’

Hugo Cancio, owner of the digital media outlet OnCuba and Katapulk, an online supermarket that allows the purchase and delivery of products in Cuba, was more enthusiastic.
"Of course I would invest in Cuba, and I would do so with great pleasure," he said. "Do you know why? Because it's not just an investment; I would be helping to rebuild my country."
But Pedro Freyre, a Cuban-American lawyer specializing in the island's regulatory framework, considers Cuba an "extremely risky" investment destination.
He justified this view by citing a dysfunctional banking system, a highly unstable currency, the absence of the rule of law guaranteeing private property, the failure of the centrally planned economy, and "completely dilapidated" infrastructure.
"It’s very difficult to say to yourself, 'I'm going to take the money I've saved my whole life to open a McDonald's on the Malecon (Havana's famous seaside promenade) when I don’t know if there's electricity, water, or if the Malecon is going to collapse into the sea,'" he said.
Adding to these obstacles is the fact that, under the American embargo imposed since the 1960s, Washington must allow its residents to conduct business on the island.
Herrera hoped to be able to invest "when there is a free Cuba," to support his compatriots who lack housing, infrastructure, sanitation, and electricity.
"Here in Miami, people and very large companies built the city while we arrived with nothing," he said. "In the same way, we can build and rebuild Cuba."
gma/mjf/sms

Global Edition

Stocks drop, oil jumps as Mideast war persists

  • Early Friday, drone attacks caused fire at Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery.
  • Stocks tumbled while oil prices pushed higher Friday at the end of a turbulent week in which attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure rattled global markets and sparked fears of a global economic slowdown.
  • Early Friday, drone attacks caused fire at Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery.
Stocks tumbled while oil prices pushed higher Friday at the end of a turbulent week in which attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure rattled global markets and sparked fears of a global economic slowdown.
Crude prices jumped further on Friday,  with the international benchmark, Brent crude, rising 3.3 percent on Friday to nearly $112.19 per barrel. The main US contract, West Texas Intermediate, rose 2.3 percent to over $98 per barrel.
Angelo Kourkafas of Edward Jones, said this week's assaults on energy infrastructure deepened the market's concerns.
"What really matters more is not how high prices are now, but how long prices may stay high, and I think it's that uncertainty that is triggering the volatility," he said.
Coming into this week, investors were anxious over the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas flow.
Early Friday, drone attacks caused fire at Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery.
Energy analysts and consumers are also scrambling to count the cost of Iranian missiles hitting Qatar's huge Ras Laffan natural gas complex on Thursday. 
The attack caused "extensive damage" that Qatar's state energy company said could cost $20 billion a year in lost revenue and take five years to repair.
"Heading into a weekend, investors are unsurprisingly a bit nervous about what may happen, of course nobody knows how it's going to play out," said Kourkafas, who pointed to the rise in government bond yields as a sign markets are more worried about inflation.
All three major US indices finished lower Friday, with the broad-based S&P 500 losing 1.5 percent.
US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday expressed concern about inflation in light of the war.
Waller, who has since last year backed interest rate cuts over labor market concerns, said he changed his mind in the last two weeks on the pace of easing due to inflation risks.
"Since that time the Strait of Hormuz was closed, this is looking like it's going to be a much more protracted conflict, and oil prices are going to stay high for a longer time," he told US broadcaster CNBC on Friday.
"So that suggested inflation was more of a concern than I was putting it."
Earlier, European markets ended the day lower, with London's FTSE 100 sliding below the 10,000 level for the first time since early January as bond concerns mounted.
On Thursday, US markets had been buoyed by comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the war could end sooner than expected.
But Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei remained defiant on Friday, saying that Iranians had dealt a "dizzying blow" to the country's enemies.
Also Friday, US President Donald Trump ruled out reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran, saying Washington has the upper hand in the three-week-old war.
"I don't want to do a ceasefire. You know you don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side," Trump told journalists at the White House.

Key figures at around 2015 GMT

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 3.3 percent at $112.19 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.3 percent at $98.32 per barrel
New York - Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 45,577.47 (close)
New York - S&P 500: DOWN 1.5 percent at 6,506.48 (close)
New York - Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 2.0 percent at 21,647.61 (close)
London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.4 percent at 9,918.33 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 1.8 percent at 7,665.62 (close)
Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 2.0 percent at 22,380.19 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 25,277.32 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 1.2 percent at 3,957.05 (close)
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1550 from $1.1589 on Thursday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3323 from $1.3257
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 159.30 yen from 159.86 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 86.68 pence from 86.38 pence
burs-jmb/sms

US

Souped-up VPNs play 'cat and mouse' game with Iran censors

BY TOM BARFIELD

  • Iran uses all of those, and it is generally much more aggressive than other countries in targeting the entire IP ranges of service providers that VPNs typically use.
  • Iranians are managing to get online during the current war with the US and Israel despite drastic censorship and frequent blackouts, throwing the spotlight on to providers of tools such as VPNs (virtual private networks).
  • Iran uses all of those, and it is generally much more aggressive than other countries in targeting the entire IP ranges of service providers that VPNs typically use.
Iranians are managing to get online during the current war with the US and Israel despite drastic censorship and frequent blackouts, throwing the spotlight on to providers of tools such as VPNs (virtual private networks).
AFP asked Adam Fisk, head of US-based nonprofit Lantern, which offers an advanced VPN, how his technology and similar apps can get around such heavy-handed blocking.
Question: How does Iran's internet blocking work?
Answer: In general, censoring countries block traffic using DNS (Domain Name System, which translates between human- and machine-readable names for websites and other resources), SNI (server name identification), IP-based blocking (of specific internet addresses) and other forms of Deep Packet Inspection (probing the content of data sent over the internet).
Iran uses all of those, and it is generally much more aggressive than other countries in targeting the entire IP ranges of service providers that VPNs typically use.
Iran is also uniquely aggressive in shutting down all international connectivity in times of crisis. In those cases, traffic is primarily limited to the domestic internet, or NIN (National Information Network).
Q: How do tools like Lantern get around the blocking?
A: Lantern and Psiphon (a similar tool made by a Canadian company) share the same general approaches but use different protocols and codebases.
A powerful approach is hiding in common forms of traffic, such as TLS (Transport Layer Security, used to protect applications like web browsing, email, instant messaging and voice calls) or DNS.
The additional traffic from Lantern or other tools becomes a subset of a much larger whole. If done carefully, it can be hard to distinguish from ordinary web traffic.
There is definitely a cat-and-mouse element to the relationship. Lantern and other tools are constantly discovering new approaches or vulnerabilities, while censors such as Iran discover new ways to shut them down.
Q: How do people inside countries like Iran get software to circumvent blocking?
A: When there is international internet connectivity, people get Lantern from sites that censors are unwilling to block due to the economic consequences such as (software development platform) GitHub.
During internet shutdowns, however, people rely on their existing copies of Lantern and other tools, or they can get new updates through services like (satellite broadcast system) Toosheh or other users who have Starlink, for example.
Iran is generally a very tech-savvy country, and many people constantly have multiple circumvention apps on their phones.
Q: Could Iran's hackers glean data about users from your systems?
A: We don't store any personally identifiable information about users at all, and Lantern undergoes regular security audits. 
We are also generally strong security engineers and take care to secure our backend infrastructure in a variety of ways.
Q: Where do Lantern's resources come from and can ordinary people help out?
A: Lantern is a US-based nonprofit that earns revenue from Lantern Pro users worldwide who pay for a better version. Historically, we have received funding from the Open Technology Fund (a US government-funded NGO that campaigns for internet freedom), the US State Department and private philanthropists.
We also have Unbounded, where anyone can become a proxy (a "bridge" between people in censored countries and Lantern's network) with the click of a button.
This will use your bandwidth to some degree but won't have a significant impact on the performance of your machine. People can run it for however long they want.
Q: Where else is Lantern widely used and is demand growing?
A: In general, we have seen censorship growing around the world for many years, with Lantern usage growing accordingly to around two million globally.
We have a significant number of users in Russia, Myanmar and the UAE.
From Iran at the moment, there's very little traffic getting through, very little traffic in general apart from what's on the NIN.
tgb/jxb

US

What cargo ships are passing Hormuz strait?

  • - Indian, Pakistani ships - "There are indications that some ships are transiting under Iranian 'approval', with some vessels following a route through the Strait closer to the Iranian coastline than normal," including Indian and Pakistani vessels, marine consultancy Clarksons said in a note.
  • Just a trickle of cargo ships and tankers -- most of them Iranian -- have made it through the Strait of Hormuz since Iranian forces blocked the crucial trade route in the Middle East war.
  • - Indian, Pakistani ships - "There are indications that some ships are transiting under Iranian 'approval', with some vessels following a route through the Strait closer to the Iranian coastline than normal," including Indian and Pakistani vessels, marine consultancy Clarksons said in a note.
Just a trickle of cargo ships and tankers -- most of them Iranian -- have made it through the Strait of Hormuz since Iranian forces blocked the crucial trade route in the Middle East war.
Here are facts and figures about vessels that have passed through the 167-kilometre (104-mile) long strait since the war broke out with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

95% shipping drop

From March 1 to 19, commodities carriers made just 116 crossings, according to analytics firm Kpler -- a decrease of 95 percent from peacetime.
Of these, 71 crossings were by oil tankers and more than half were loaded, Kpler data showed, with most travelling east out of the strait.
Traffic "is being led mostly by bulk carriers, tankers and container ships," said Richard Meade, editor of leading shipping intelligence journal Lloyd's List, in a briefing on Thursday.
"But we have seen a bit of an uptick in gas carriers moving over the last week."

Iranian, Greek, Chinese ships

Most of the ships passing the strait are owned or flagged in Iran, said Bridget Diakun, an analyst at data company Lloyd's List Intelligence.
After that, Greek ships accounted for 18 percent of crossings and Chinese ones 10 percent in recent days, she said on Thursday.
"Although Iran is continuing to control the Strait and exit its own oil, everything else is largely still at a standstill," said Meade.

45 sanctioned ships

Overall since the war started, more than a third of the ships transiting the strait were under US, EU or UK sanctions, according to an AFP analysis of passage data.
Of the oil and gas tankers, more than half were under sanctions.
Since March 16 "anything heading westbound has been shadow fleet, gas carriers or tankers... they absolutely dominate the traffic going through," Diakun told the Lloyds briefing.

Oil to China 

Commodities analysts at JPMorgan bank said in a report released Monday that most of the oil passing through the strait was headed for Asia, principally China.
Cichen Shen, Asia Pacific editor at Lloyd's List, said there were indications online that Chinese authorities were working on "some sort of exit plan" for their big tankers stuck in the region.

1.3 mn barrels of Iran oil 

The JPMorgan analysts said overall 98 percent of the observable oil traffic through the strait was Iranian, averaging 1.3 million barrels a day "in early March".
A fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait in peacetime.

Indian, Pakistani ships

"There are indications that some ships are transiting under Iranian 'approval', with some vessels following a route through the Strait closer to the Iranian coastline than normal," including Indian and Pakistani vessels, marine consultancy Clarksons said in a note.
Meade of Lloyds List added: "Several governments, including China, but (also) India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia, they're all in direct talks with Tehran, coordinating vessel transits" with Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Lloyd's List said at least nine ships had passed through an apparently Iranian-approved "corridor" close to Larak Island near Iran's coastline for vetting by its authorities.
rlp/rl

US

Far from war, global fuel frustrations mount

  • Benchmark oil prices are hovering around $100, a surge of around 40 to 50 percent since the war against Iran began to disrupt oil supplies.
  • Far from the Middle East war, fallout from oil disruptions is reverberating across the world, unsettling lives from Lagos to Manila as people adjust to fuel price hikes and gas shortages. 
  • Benchmark oil prices are hovering around $100, a surge of around 40 to 50 percent since the war against Iran began to disrupt oil supplies.
Far from the Middle East war, fallout from oil disruptions is reverberating across the world, unsettling lives from Lagos to Manila as people adjust to fuel price hikes and gas shortages. 
Benchmark oil prices are hovering around $100, a surge of around 40 to 50 percent since the war against Iran began to disrupt oil supplies.
Weeks before war broke out, Adeola Sanni, a 36-year-old Nigerian entrepreneur making corporate uniforms in Lagos, had planned to hire an additional worker.
Now those plans are on hold as her budget is eaten up buying petrol to power up generators to run her sewing machines after fuel prices jumped about 20 percent in Africa's most populous country.
Nigeria's electricity supply is unstable at the best of times, but has worsened in recent weeks due to gas supply shortages, forcing businesses and households to spend more on private power generators.
"I am currently spending more than 33 percent more on fuel than I used to," Sanni, told AFP.
In Nigeria, petrol prices rose recently from 830 naira a litre in Lagos to 1,250 naira ($0.59 to $0.90) -- a record high in a country where the pump price was just 195 naira at the beginning of 2023 -- before easing to 1,130.
Public transport fares have jumped by as much as a third adding to the misery of passengers still reeling from a cost of living crisis caused by reforms that slashed fuel subsidies.

Plans in disarray

Indians like housewife Kriti Prasad have been found themselves desperately hunting for cooking gas as supplies dwindle. People have been queuing up across the country outside gas cylinder agencies.   
Electric induction stovetops have also been selling out in India as households rush to find alternatives. Those needs can be especially acute during religious festivals like Eid for Muslims and the approaching Hindu festival of Chhath.
"I have been trying to book a gas cylinder for days now but I have had no luck so far. This has thrown all our plans in disarray," Prasad, 43, told AFP.
"The government is saying there is no need to panic but the ground reality is different."
Small and medium-sized Indian restaurants have also been forced to alter menus as authorities prioritize household supplies of gas. With black market gas prices nearly double, some are looking to cook on wood stoves or use less energy-consuming methods.

'No one wins in war'

In the Philippines, some tricycle taxi drivers have seen fuel price hikes slash their daily earnings in half.
Romeo Cipriano has been driving a tricycle in Manila for four decades and says fuel prices are now the highest he has seen.
He recently joined hundreds of drivers lining up for cash handouts of 5,000 pesos ($84) that the government hopes will provide temporary relief.
Patiently awaiting his subsidy at the Manila community centre, Cipriano said he could only pray for a quick end to the war.
"We're not the only ones affected," he said. "No one wins in war."
Authorities have also increased fares on some local transport to offset fuel costs.

'Critical' diesel costs

French fisherman David Le Quintrec said diesel prices for vessels had seen an "enormous" increase, forcing them to sail shorter distances to save on fuel.
"Diesel has reached a price that's quite critical for us," said Le Quintrec, unloading sole and sea bass caught recently overnight at the port of Lorient. 
The fisherman, who also heads the French Union of Artisanal Fishermen (UFPA), has seen fuel prices skyrocket in just 10 days, from 60 cents a liter to nearly 90 cents. 
Not far away, fishing operations mananger Jerome Nicol, sees little hope. If diesel reaches one euro per liter, his fleet's five trawlers will remain in port because it will no longer be profitable to send them out. 
"For boats consuming more than a tonne of fuel per day, that's several hundred euros more," he said.

Iranian veggies, cigarettes

Just over the border from Iran, in the Turkmenistan capital Ashgabat, pensioner Shemshat Kurbanova is used to buying Iranian juices and fruits. But now most of the products have shot up in price.
Iran has banned all goods and agricultural exports, triggering economic pressure on Turkmenistan and the wider Central Asia region, where Tehran has had a growing economic influence.
"I used to appreciate their low prices. But now everything has doubled," Kurbanova said.
Government worker Kerim Ballyev has curbed his heavy consumption of Iranian cigarettes.
"It's too expensive for me," he said. "I won't be buying a whole pack, I'll buy them individually."

No fuel, no job

In Thailand, from the capital Bangkok to the northern Chiang Rai, drivers and riders are lining up for fuel as they face worsening shortages worsened and rising prices.
Grab food delivery rider Oracha, 48, said she was losing money because she has to switch off her app to search for fuel for an hour.
"I lose my income for that hour," she said, adding she normally makes 30 to 50 baht ($0.92 to $1.53) an hour and has to work longer to make up for lost time.
"If there's no fuel, it feels like I don't have a job at all."
burs/rl

US

Ship crews ration food in Iran blockade: seafarers

BY LAETITIA COMMANAY

  • "Another worry is also about the food supplies, the water supplies and everything else that needs to be supplied to the crew."
  • Seafarers stuck in the Gulf say they are rationing food and water and anxiously hoping supplies will get through Iran's blockade in the war that has stranded them for three weeks.
  • "Another worry is also about the food supplies, the water supplies and everything else that needs to be supplied to the crew."
Seafarers stuck in the Gulf say they are rationing food and water and anxiously hoping supplies will get through Iran's blockade in the war that has stranded them for three weeks.
"We don't have enough water on board right now. We got food a few days back," said one Indian seaman stuck in a small refuelling boat off Iraq, within sight of the Iranian shore.
"Till yesterday we had proper drinking water and fresh water for baths and stuff. But now since drinking water is over, we have contacted the owner for the drinking water and I hope they get it by today or tomorrow," he added.
"Till then, we are boiling the water for drinking," said the young sailor, who asked to be identified only by his last name, Pereira.

Food rationing

One ship's captain said his vessel was stuck at anchor off Qatar near the major Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas plant, which was hit by an Iranian attack on Thursday.
"If the port shuts down completely, then there is no possibility of getting the crew out. So that's one worry," said the captain, who asked not to be named so his vessel could not be identified.
"Another worry is also about the food supplies, the water supplies and everything else that needs to be supplied to the crew."
He spoke to AFP while on shore in rotation as another master commanded his vessel -- but he was in regular contact with the crew.
He said 25 crew members had left the ship, leaving 95 on board.
"That would require a provision top-up every 10-15 days," he said.
"Last week, we managed to load up with provisions and water, but will it be possible in one week from now?"
He said the team was reducing shifts and meals in case supplies get cut off.
"We are starting with food and water rationing on board, just so we can stretch out the number of days we go with available resources in case food, water and fuel are unavailable."

Evacuation route urged

Jacqueline Smith, maritime coordinator at the International Transport Workers' Federation, said numerous seafarers had been raising the alarm over supplies in recent days.
"We have been receiving text messages from seafarers saying we're running low on provisions, we're running low on fuel, we're running low on water, we're running low on food," she told AFP.
"This wasn't the case in the beginning, and that is going to just be increasing if there's no end in sight to the conflict."
She said the ITF called on countries where the ships are flagged, such as Panama and Liberia, to issue guidance to shipowners and seafarers to organise their repatriation.
"I hope ... that governments will start coordinating their approach to it when it comes to the welfare of the seafarers," she said.
"Employers did say that they have not had any issues ordering provisions, so the seafarers that have contacted us must be on vessels with unserious employers."
The UN's maritime body (IMO) called on Thursday for the creation of a safe shipping "corridor" in the Gulf to evacuate stranded vessels and seafarers.

'Panic' at attacks

Around 20,000 seafarers remained stranded on some 3,200 vessels west of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IMO.
It says at least eight seafarers or dock workers have died in incidents in the region since the conflict began on February 28.
"Since the attacks started, there's a lot of panic. And even our families have been panicking," said Pereira.
Five of his eight fellow crew members were Iraqis who departed for home, leaving him and the other sailors on board.
He entered Iraqi waters in November on a vessel refuelling oil tankers -- his first trip as a seafarer.
He has been trying to get evacuated by Indian diplomats "since the war started" on February 28.
"We just want to leave and go home. I won't be coming to sea again after what I've seen now. This first trip has been really horrible."
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