semiconductors

Nvidia chief expects revenue of $1 trillion through 2027

  • "I see, through 2027, at least a trillion dollars (in revenue)," Huang said.
  • Nvidia chief Jensen Huang on Monday said he expects the artificial intelligence chip powerhouse to bring in at least a trillion dollars in revenue through next year.
  • "I see, through 2027, at least a trillion dollars (in revenue)," Huang said.
Nvidia chief Jensen Huang on Monday said he expects the artificial intelligence chip powerhouse to bring in at least a trillion dollars in revenue through next year.
Huang made the ramped-up revenue forecast while outlining Nvidia's latest innovations for a packed audience at the opening of its annual developers conference in Silicon Valley.
"I see, through 2027, at least a trillion dollars (in revenue)," Huang said.
"I am certain that computing demand will be higher than that."
A year earlier, at the same event, Huang had projected revenue of half that much.
The revenue is expected to be driven by demand for its premium graphics processing units (GPUs), which Huang touted as delivering high performance while reining in the cost of delivering AI services.
Huang contended that demand for computing power has increased "a million-fold" in just two years and shows no sign of abating. 
He went on to show Nvidia's latest innovations when it came to GPU's and platforms for building AI into nearly everything, from robots and apps to data centers orbiting the planet.
Nvidia is tailoring its technology for "agentic" AI and training models, as well as inferencing -- in which AI makes deductions or generates content, demonstrations showed.
The entire tech world -- from big names like OpenAI and Anthropic to young startups -- feels like they could grow revenue and their AI "if they could just get more capacity," Huang told the audience.
Nvidia is aiming its AI expertise at seemingly all sectors from automobiles to health care.
"Every single enterprise company, every single software company in the world needs an AI agent strategy," Huang said.
"This is going to become a multi trillion-dollar industry, offering not just tools for people to use, but agents that are specialized," he added.
gc-bl/jgc

US

Middle East war: global economic fallout

  • IEA members agreed on March 11 to tap oil stockpiles to cushion the surge in prices caused by the war -- by far the largest-ever response of its kind.
  • Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war on Monday: - Stocks rise as oil prices cool - Global markets mostly rose as oil prices pulled back, with investors focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf waterway through which a fifth of global crude oil passes, where traffic has been severely disrupted by the war.
  • IEA members agreed on March 11 to tap oil stockpiles to cushion the surge in prices caused by the war -- by far the largest-ever response of its kind.
Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war on Monday:

Stocks rise as oil prices cool

Global markets mostly rose as oil prices pulled back, with investors focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf waterway through which a fifth of global crude oil passes, where traffic has been severely disrupted by the war.
International benchmark Brent North Sea crude dropped 2.8 percent to $100.21, while the main US contract West Texas Intermediate fell 5.3 percent to $93.50.

Drone strike sparks UAE oil field fire

A drone strike caused a fire at a major oil field in the United Arab Emirates, authorities said, as Iran continued its drone and missile strikes across the Gulf.
The Shah oil field, located 230 kilometres (143 miles) south of Abu Dhabi city, has a production capacity of approximately 70,000 barrels of crude oil per day, according to the UAE's state-owned energy giant ADNOC.

Drone attack targets Iraqi oil field

Two drones targeted a major southern Iraqi oil field, an oil ministry spokesperson told AFP, after the second attack in four days.
Majnoon oil field was "targeted by two drones, one hit a telecommunication tower," oil ministry spokesperson Saheb Bazoun said, adding that there had been no damage.
A security official confirmed the attack and said the second drone had targeted the offices of an American firm operating at the site.

Pakistani tanker transits Hormuz

A Pakistani oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz with its automatic transponder system activated, monitor Marine Traffic said, the first such voyage by a non-Iranian tanker since the start of the war.
Marine Traffic said on X that the 237-metre-long Pakistani-flagged oil tanker had a draft of 11.5 metres, indicating it was heavy and likely loaded.

IEA hints at more releases

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said more strategic oil stocks could be released if necessary to limit the fallout of the virtual blockage of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz owing to the war on Iran.
"In terms of government stocks and industry stocks held under government obligation, if you combine them, there will be still over 1.4 billion barrels remaining, which means we can do more later as and if needed," Birol said in a video statement.

UAE's ADNOC 'suspends' loading oil at Fujairah terminal

The UAE's state-owned energy giant ADNOC halted the loading of oil into storage tanks at their Fujairah facility, a source with knowledge of the operations told AFP Monday, following repeated strikes on the energy installation.
Fujairah is home to a major port where Iranian attacks have already targeted oil storage tanks. The port is also home to a key oil export terminal just at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq hopes to revive pipeline

Iraq is hoping to ship up to 250,000 barrels of oil per day to a port in Turkey via a rehabilitated pipeline that has been out of service for years, its oil minister said, after the US-Israeli war on Iran cut off its main export route.
The amount would be just a fraction of the roughly 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) that Iraq exported before the conflict, mostly through its southern Basra port and the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan starts releasing oil stocks

Japan said it was beginning the release of its strategic oil reserves after the International Energy Agency indicated earlier that the release would begin in Asia and Oceania before other regions.
IEA members agreed on March 11 to tap oil stockpiles to cushion the surge in prices caused by the war -- by far the largest-ever response of its kind. The IEA said releases in Europe and North America would start before the end of March.
burs-rl-bys/sla

Israel

Migrant workers bear brunt of Iran attacks in Gulf

BY ANJANA SANKAR

  • Since February 28, Tehran has launched wave after wave of missile and drone attacks against the Gulf states in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on Iran. 
  • Bangladeshi migrant Ahmad Ali, 55, was doing his regular round delivering drinking water to residents in the United Arab Emirates when Iran launched its first retaliatory attacks against Gulf countries.
  • Since February 28, Tehran has launched wave after wave of missile and drone attacks against the Gulf states in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on Iran. 
Bangladeshi migrant Ahmad Ali, 55, was doing his regular round delivering drinking water to residents in the United Arab Emirates when Iran launched its first retaliatory attacks against Gulf countries.
Debris from a missile strike tore through his delivery van, killing him instantly and ending his three decades spent in the Emirates.
"My dad told my cousin he would be back soon," Ali's son Abdul Hoque said from Barlekha in eastern Bangladesh. "But those were his last words. He died instantly when his van was hit."
Since February 28, Tehran has launched wave after wave of missile and drone attacks against the Gulf states in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on Iran. 
In a region home to more than 35 million migrant workers, mostly from South Asia, many of those killed have been foreign labourers filling the lowest-paid roles in Gulf economies.
Among fourteen civilians killed in the Gulf since the conflict began, according to an AFP tally, eight were foreign nationals from Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and India.
And while some wealthy residents have been able to leave the Gulf, migrant workers remain among the most vulnerable during the conflict.
For many workers, leaving is not an option having borrowed to pay recruitment agents for visas and jobs abroad and with families at home dependent on the remittances they send.

'Don't know why'

"My father was a hard-working man doing a respectable job," Hoque said. "We don't know why he had to die."
After nearly three decades in the UAE, Ali had recently begun building a house in Bangladesh, a dream shared by many migrant workers in the Gulf.
"That dream has ended with his death," Hoque said. "My mother and my three siblings are still in shock."
Pakistani migrant Murib Zaman Nizar, 44, was another victim in the UAE, killed on February 28 in Abu Dhabi when debris from an intercepted drone fell on his car.
A father of five children aged between four and 12, Nizar worked as a driver for a family in the Emirati capital.
"My brother was washing the car inside the compound when the accident happened," Murib's brother Muhammad Khan told AFP by phone from their hometown of Bannu in Pakistan's northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
"He was a family man who wanted to give the best life to his five children. And now he is gone," said Khan, who also works in the UAE as a construction worker.

'Emotionally shut'

With no immediate sign of de-escalation, several Gulf countries have shifted to remote work and online schooling as repeated alerts and the sounds of air defence interceptions fuel anxiety among residents but migrant workers continue their daily lives outside.
"We are trying to stay calm and continue working as usual," said Binoy, an Indian engineer in Dubai who asked that his full name not be used.
A resident of Mohammed Bin Zayed City on the outskirts of Abu Dhabi, Binoy said the frequent explosions from interceptions are unsettling.
"We know they are interceptions, but it is still worrying," he said. 
A Filipino nurse in Dubai who asked to be identified as Jane said she continues to report to work while trying to "emotionally shut out" the constant noise.
"Two days ago, I was walking home early in the morning after my night shift when I heard loud booms," she said. "I kept walking. What else can we do?"
Jane, who has lived in the UAE for seven years, said her two children aged seven and ten call her frequently.
"They are scared after watching the news on TV. I keep reassuring them that everything is safe here."
str/csp/dc

AI

Nvidia rides 'claw' craze with AI agent platform

  • The chipmaker unveiled tools designed to add security and privacy controls to these AI agents, called "claws," that run directly on a person's computer and execute complex tasks without constant human oversight. 
  • Nvidia announced Monday that it was joining the OpenClaw craze, unveiling tools to bring AI agents -- which can manage your email, files and calendar while you sleep -- into the corporate world.
  • The chipmaker unveiled tools designed to add security and privacy controls to these AI agents, called "claws," that run directly on a person's computer and execute complex tasks without constant human oversight. 
Nvidia announced Monday that it was joining the OpenClaw craze, unveiling tools to bring AI agents -- which can manage your email, files and calendar while you sleep -- into the corporate world.
OpenClaw has taken Silicon Valley and tech-savvy users across the globe by storm, sparking "lobster fever" in reference to its red crustacean mascot, with many of the biggest names in tech convinced the AI agent is redefining computing. 
But security concerns have dogged its rise, prompting the Chinese government to block state enterprises from using the tool. Nvidia is betting it can address those fears.
"Mac and Windows are the operating systems for the personal computer. OpenClaw is the operating system for personal AI," Nvidia's chief executive Jensen Huang said in a statement.
"This is the moment the industry has been waiting for -- the beginning of a new renaissance in software," he added.
The chipmaker unveiled tools designed to add security and privacy controls to these AI agents, called "claws," that run directly on a person's computer and execute complex tasks without constant human oversight. 

Stunning success

Unlike ChatGPT or other chatbots that simply answer questions, claws act independently and around the clock and can even be asked to create apps or programs from scratch.
The craze traces back to a weekend coding project by Austrian developer Peter Steinberger, who has since been hired by OpenAI. 
In late 2025 he released a self-hosted AI assistant called Clawdbot -- a nod to Anthropic's Claude chatbot -- that could be messaged through WhatsApp or Telegram and would quietly get to work on tasks in the background.
The response was immediate and overwhelming, with developers reporting they had stayed up all night finding new ways to exploit the tool, which can also be asked to write standalone software programs from simple text prompts. 
After Anthropic filed a trademark infringement complaint, Steinberger renamed the project twice in quick succession, landing on OpenClaw.
The rebranding chaos generated only more headlines, and within months it had become the fastest-adopted open-source project in history.
But the technology's explosive spread has alarmed security researchers and corporate IT departments wary of employees inadvertently exposing company systems to hackers or causing disruption. 
Several technology heavyweights have barred staff from running claw agents on work machines, and China's government has restricted state enterprises from using the platform over data security fears.
Nvidia, the world's most highly values company on Wall street, is seeking to turn those concerns to its advantage. 
The company launched the Nvidia Agent Toolkit -- a suite of open-source models and software for building enterprise AI agents -- anchored by a new security layer called OpenShell that enforces network and privacy guardrails.
Adobe, Salesforce, SAP and Siemens are among the major software companies that said they are building on Nvidia's new platform.
arp/js

US

Securing the Strait of Hormuz: Tactics and threats

  • Trump added that Washington did not know if any mines had actually been placed in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
  • President Donald Trump is pressuring allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime choke point that has effectively been closed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli war launched last month.
  • Trump added that Washington did not know if any mines had actually been placed in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
President Donald Trump is pressuring allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime choke point that has effectively been closed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli war launched last month.
Trump highlighted the dangers in remarks on Monday, noting that a "single terrorist" could "put something in the water" or shoot a missile at ships transiting the narrow waterway bordering the Islamic republic.
Trump said a number of countries that he did not specify had committed to help, while taking aim at others that were not "enthusiastic" about doing so.
AFP examines how an escort mission could work, and the threats to vessels in the strait.

Escorting ships

In an escort mission, navy ships would seek to provide cover for tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz and also respond if the commercial ships were fired upon, said Jonathan Schroden, chief research officer at the Center for Naval Analyses, near Washington.
"They would try to do it in more of a convoy kind of manner... where you muster up a handful of tankers and then you have one or several navy ships escort them through," he said.
Smaller vessels such as destroyers and frigates would be best suited for the mission, which could also involve air cover from helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, or both.
"Navy surface ships with some degree of air support would be primarily how you would do that," Schroden said.

Mines

The US Navy escorted tankers through the Gulf to protect them from Iranian attacks during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Mines were a threat during that operation -- dubbed Earnest Will -- and could be again.
Trump said Monday that the United States had hit all of Iran's mine-laying ships -- destroying more than 30 of them -- but that the mines could be transferred to other vessels for deployment. 
Schroden also noted that Iran had "multiple means of putting (mines) into the water."
Trump added that Washington did not know if any mines had actually been placed in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.

Missiles, drones, boats

Washington says Iran's navy has largely been destroyed, but Tehran has missiles, drones and small attack vessels that could also be used to threaten maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's "small boats and fast attack craft... have a variety of armaments on them that they could launch to try and... hit tankers or navy ships at a surface level," Schroden said.
They also have "a whole host of missiles that they can bring to bear. And then they have... Shahed drones and other drones that they manufacture that they could also employ," he said, referring to Iran's extensive arsenal of one-way attack drones.
"They have a wide variety of threats that they can bring to bear," Schroden added.
wd/js

inequality

Talks towards international panel to tackle 'inequality emergency' begin at UN

  • He highlighted the important role that the IPCC has played in providing a scientific basis and "enhancing understanding of why we're seeing climate change", insisting something similar was needed to address the inequality crisis.
  • Talks towards creating a new international panel to address extreme wealth disparities, modelled on the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), opened in Geneva on Monday.
  • He highlighted the important role that the IPCC has played in providing a scientific basis and "enhancing understanding of why we're seeing climate change", insisting something similar was needed to address the inequality crisis.
Talks towards creating a new international panel to address extreme wealth disparities, modelled on the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), opened in Geneva on Monday.
The founding committee of the new International Panel on Inequality (IPI), made up of country representatives and inequality experts including Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, was holding its first meeting at the UN's European headquarters.
The meeting marked the first step towards creating a scientific and policy platform dedicated to understanding and addressing inequality worldwide.
The new body, inspired by the IPCC, was recommended in a G20 report authored by Stiglitz, demanding action to address a global "inequality emergency", which it warned was undermining both democracy and economic progress.
"We have an inequality crisis. I think everybody recognises that," Stiglitz told AFP, adding that the problem was "clearly" getting worse.
He pointed out that the world's richest one percent captured 41 percent of all new wealth between 2000 and 2024.
By contrast, "the bottom 50 percent has gotten something like one percent", he said. "It's just glaring."
"Inequality is a betrayal of people's dignity, an impediment to inclusive growth and a threat to democracy itself," South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said when Stiglitz's report was launched late last year under his country's G20 presidency.
"Addressing inequality is our inescapable generational challenge."

'Poverty amidst plenty'

Ramaphosa, whose country has been ranked by the World Bank as the most unequal on the planet, has said he will bring forward a motion on the IPI at the UN General Assembly. 
The founding committee, made up of representatives of Brazil, Norway, South Africa and Spain, alongside UN agencies, civil society and academic experts, has been tasked with defining the IPI's mission, governance and operational framework.
Observers said the aim was to create the panel by the end of the year. 
Stiglitz's report called out the current situation of "poverty amidst plenty; unbridled wealth at the top amidst hunger at the bottom". 
"Wealth can undermine democracy because those with great wealth may have disproportionate influence on the economy and politics," it warned.
Speaking to AFP, Stiglitz highlighted the situation in the United States, where you have "unlimited campaign contributions", providing the very wealthy with huge sway.
"We moved to a system of not one person, one vote, but one dollar, one vote," he warned.
He highlighted the important role that the IPCC has played in providing a scientific basis and "enhancing understanding of why we're seeing climate change", insisting something similar was needed to address the inequality crisis.
With the climate crisis, "the world rightly recognised that if you're going to solve the problem, you have to have scientific evidence, an understanding theory of what's going on", he said.
nl/rjm/rl

Israel

Western allies push back on Trump call for NATO help to reopen Hormuz

BY PETER HUTCHISON AND JOE JACKSON

  • Oil prices jumped after the strait was closed and remained on Monday above $100 per barrel as the Iran war moved into a third week.
  • NATO allies and other Western nations pushed back Monday on US President Donald Trump's demand that military alliance members help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical conduit for crude oil Iran has effectively closed.
  • Oil prices jumped after the strait was closed and remained on Monday above $100 per barrel as the Iran war moved into a third week.
NATO allies and other Western nations pushed back Monday on US President Donald Trump's demand that military alliance members help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical conduit for crude oil Iran has effectively closed.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said London was working with allies to craft a "viable" plan to reopen the strategic waterway but ruled out a NATO mission, while Berlin insisted it "has been clear at all times that this war is not a matter for NATO".
"There was never a joint decision on whether to intervene. That is why the question of how Germany might contribute militarily does not arise. We will not do so," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Poland, Spain, Greece and Sweden were among the other European nations to distance themselves from any military involvement in the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of Trump's call.
Japan and Australia voiced similar sentiments earlier Monday, with Canberra saying it would not be sending a navy ship to the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump: show 'enthusiasm'

Trump over the weekend called on countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain to send warships to escort tankers through the strait, warning refusing would be "very bad for the future of NATO". 
And he stepped up pressure again on Monday saying he expected Britain and France to help secure shipping in the key waterway, and criticising US allies for their lukewarm response.
"We strongly encourage the other nations to get involved with us and get involved quickly and with great enthusiasm," he said, adding he believed Britain would get involved in a Hormuz mission.
Oil prices jumped after the strait was closed and remained on Monday above $100 per barrel as the Iran war moved into a third week.
The volatility further underlined the importance of ensuring safe passage for tankers through the vital transport route.
Starmer, who had faced stinging criticism from Trump over Britain's refusal to join the US and Israel in offensive attacks on Iran, told reporters he had discussed the waterway with the US leader Sunday.
"We're working with all of our allies, including our European partners, to bring together a viable collective plan that can restore freedom of navigation in the region as quickly as possible and ease the economic impacts," he said in Downing Street.
"Let me be clear: that won't be, and it's never been envisioned to be, a NATO mission," Starmer said, while also stressing Britain "will not be drawn into the wider war.
"That'll have to be an alliance of partners," he added of any Strait of Hormuz mission.

'Difficult'

A NATO official noted that members "have already stepped up to provide additional security in the Mediterranean". 
"We are aware that individual allies are talking with the US and others on what more they might do, including in the context of security in the Strait of Hormuz," the official told AFP.
Following Trump's demand for military support, some European countries sought to appear open-minded while remaining non-committal. 
"We did not want this war. From day one, we have called for de-escalation," Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told Danish media in Brussels before an EU foreign ministers' meeting. 
"That said, I believe we need to keep an open mind and look at how we can contribute," he said, describing the situation as "very, very serious".
Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told the country's ANP press agency that it would be "very difficult to launch a successful mission there in the short-term".
burs-jj/jkb/rmb

banking

European bank battle heats up as UniCredit swoops for Commerzbank

BY JULIETTE RABAT WITH LOUIS VAN BOXEL-WOOLF IN FRANKFURT

  • UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel said earlier on Monday that the drama, which began in 2024 when the Italian lender acquired a substantial stake in Commerzbank, had become a distraction for both banks and it was time to act.
  • Italian bank UniCredit on Monday made a 35-billion-euro ($40 billion) takeover offer for Commerzbank, sparking fury from Berlin and a defiant vow from the German lender to defend its independence.
  • UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel said earlier on Monday that the drama, which began in 2024 when the Italian lender acquired a substantial stake in Commerzbank, had become a distraction for both banks and it was time to act.
Italian bank UniCredit on Monday made a 35-billion-euro ($40 billion) takeover offer for Commerzbank, sparking fury from Berlin and a defiant vow from the German lender to defend its independence.
While stressing that it did not expect to take full control, UniCredit said it would raise its stake in Germany's second-biggest bank to more than 30 percent, triggering a mandatory takeover offer under German law.
It marks a sharp escalation in a saga which has sparked uproar in Germany, and the finance ministry in Berlin swiftly responded that any "hostile takeover" of the systemically important bank would be "unacceptable".
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the position of the German government was "clear" : "We want to preserve Commerzbank's independence."
UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel said earlier on Monday that the drama, which began in 2024 when the Italian lender acquired a substantial stake in Commerzbank, had become a distraction for both banks and it was time to act.
Italy's second-biggest bank decided to make the move "because we felt that to continue to stall was a suboptimal situation for both," he told analysts on a call.
"This offer was a neat way to open dialogue and to try to put the ball back in centre court," he added. 
"You can imagine the outcome I eventually hope for -- but it doesn't need to be that."
Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp, however, noted the approach was "not coordinated with us", and reiterated that she was determined Commerzbank should remain independent.
"We are convinced of the strength and potential of our strategy, which focuses on independence and profitable growth," she said. 
She also suggested the offer as it stands was too low, saying that it "contains no premium for our shareholders".
UniCredit offered a premium of four percent on Friday's closing share price for Commerzbank, but the German lender's shares have since soared 9.4 percent following the takeover offer.

Unwelcome advances

Announcing its offer to acquire all Commerzbank's shares, UniCredit said it expected to gain a stake of more than 30 percent "without reaching control".
This would "remove the need for UniCredit to continuously adjust its stake to remain under the 30-percent threshold" and would leave the lender able to "increase its stake freely", it added.
UniCredit currently has a direct stake of around 26 percent in Commerzbank and controls roughly an additional four percent through financial derivatives.
Berlin still has a 12.1-percent stake in Commerzbank, the legacy of a 2008 bailout during the global financial crisis.
Known for financing Germany's prized network of small- and medium-sized industrial champions, Commerzbank is dear to many Germans, and the prospect of an Italian takeover has been far from welcome.
Staff have also opposed the move. Verdi union official and Commerzbank supervisory board member Frederik Werning told AFP he feared a merger would mean large-scale job losses.
"Mr Orcel wants to cut costs at both banks, and this will be achieved through massive job cuts," he said. "An independent Commerzbank therefore seems more sustainable to us."
Last May, some employees dressed up as Gallic warriors fighting Roman invaders outside Commerzbank's shareholder meeting.
The Frankfurt-based firm has also raised dividends and already cut thousands of jobs in an effort to boost its share price and make any takeover more expensive. 
But some European policymakers have made more supportive noises about a potential takeover as they seek to unify the region's fragmented financial services sector.
Asked in 2024 about the saga, ECB chief Christine Lagarde said that cross-border banking mergers were "desirable" to allow Europe's lenders to compete with their bigger rivals, particularly in the United States.
burs-vbw-jsk/fec/yad

energy

EU talks energy as oil price soars

  • - Carbon pricing standoff -  Backed by some central European nations, Italy is also calling for a reform and even a suspension of the EU's carbon trading scheme, which obliges heavy polluters to buy permits.
  • Energy ministers from the EU's 27 nations huddled in Brussels Monday to discuss how to help families and businesses as the Iran war sends energy prices soaring.
  • - Carbon pricing standoff -  Backed by some central European nations, Italy is also calling for a reform and even a suspension of the EU's carbon trading scheme, which obliges heavy polluters to buy permits.
Energy ministers from the EU's 27 nations huddled in Brussels Monday to discuss how to help families and businesses as the Iran war sends energy prices soaring.
The meeting laid the groundwork for a Thursday summit of EU leaders that will seek to address the issue -- though the bloc has a limited number of tools at its disposal.
Here are some facts:
- Countries respond - 
Member states retain a large degree of independence from Brussels in influencing retail energy prices, and some have already moved to contain the fallout from conflict in the Middle East.
Croatia and Hungary have announced fuel price caps and Greece is to cap profit margins on gasoline.
EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen this week urged EU governments to lower taxes and levies on energy where possible -- but that requires some budget leeway.
In France, energy giant TotalEnergies announced a price cap on gasoline, following pressure from the country's cash-strapped government that has stepped up price checks at gas stations. 
Meanwhile the 32 members of the International Energy Agency have agreed to unlock 400 million barrels of oil from reserves -- their largest release ever -- in a bid to ease prices. 

Electricity market debate

In Europe the price of electricity is determined by production costs of the last power plant called upon to meet demand. 
That tends to be cheaper renewable or nuclear plants when demand is low and pricier gas power stations when it is high.
"As long as we are forced to rely on thermal power plants during peak hours, the marginal price will always be determined by fossil fuels," said Marc Baudry, an economist at the Paris Dauphine University.
The crisis has revamped calls from Italy and others for changes to the EU's electricity market, which was last reformed to reduce exposure to gas price volatility in 2024.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week Brussels was "exploring subsidising or capping the gas price" used to calculate electricity costs.
But a similar market correction mechanism introduced after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was never activated due to the strict conditions for doing so.
And critics say the main reason power in Europe is about three times more expensive than in the United States is the continent's lack of fossil fuel resources -- which forces it to rely on expensive imports. 
Hence the commission's push to decarbonise industry, and boost renewables.
- Carbon pricing standoff - 
Backed by some central European nations, Italy is also calling for a reform and even a suspension of the EU's carbon trading scheme, which obliges heavy polluters to buy permits.
Critics, including parts of European industry, lament the system contributes to high energy bills -- as gas-fired plants need to pay up to cover their planet-warming emissions.
Free emission allowances allocated to ease the green transition are being phased out by 2034. Some would like them to stay.
Brussels is already preparing proposals for a reform of the 20-year-old carbon market scheme later this year.
In a Monday letter to member states ahead of a leaders' summit on Thursday, von der Leyen said Brussels was "accelerating our work" on the revision, "notably to set out a more realistic decarbonisation trajectory beyond 2030".
Eight countries, including Sweden, Spain, and the Netherlands, pushed back against calls for reform this week, warning that "making fundamental changes" to a "cornerstone of the EU's climate policy" would represent a "very worrying step backwards".
Heavyweight France has struck a middle-ground position, calling for the rules to be made more flexible without compromising the "integrity" of the carbon market scheme.
adc/ub/ec/giv

US

Stagflation risk in US 'quite high': Nobel-winning economist Stiglitz

  • - 'Unbalanced' - Stiglitz, who jointly won the Nobel Economics Prize in 2001 for his analysis of markets with asymmetric information, said the United States was the country most at risk of falling into stagflation, as it did during the oil shocks in the 1970s.
  • The war in the Middle East has put the United States at high risk of falling into stagflation, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told AFP on Monday.
  • - 'Unbalanced' - Stiglitz, who jointly won the Nobel Economics Prize in 2001 for his analysis of markets with asymmetric information, said the United States was the country most at risk of falling into stagflation, as it did during the oil shocks in the 1970s.
The war in the Middle East has put the United States at high risk of falling into stagflation, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told AFP on Monday.
Even before the war erupted on February 28 with a barrage of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Stiglitz said the US economy was already "close to stagflation" -- a troublesome blend of high inflation and anaemic growth.
There were a number of "readings for slow growth before the war", he said in an interview at the United Nations' European headquarters in Geneva, "and this just... pushes us over the brink".
The Middle East war has virtually halted activity in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's crude oil supplies and a substantial amount of gas normally run, sending oil prices soaring.
Global oil prices have surged by 40 to 50 percent after Iran choked off the waterway and attacked energy and shipping industry targets in the Gulf in response to the US-Israeli war against the Islamic republic.
This has sparked fears of a shock to a global trading system, which is already under stress from US President Donald Trump's tariff offensive as well as the fragmentation of supply chains since the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine.

'Unbalanced'

Stiglitz, who jointly won the Nobel Economics Prize in 2001 for his analysis of markets with asymmetric information, said the United States was the country most at risk of falling into stagflation, as it did during the oil shocks in the 1970s.
"The risk of stagflation seems to be quite high for the US," said the professor at Columbia University in New York.
The situation elsewhere was not as clear-cut, said Stiglitz, who served as chief economist at the World Bank in the late 1990s after being the chairman of US president Bill Clinton's council of economic advisers.
While Europe would certainly face inflationary pressures on energy too, it was also seeing a growth "stimulus" as it dramatically ramps up defence spending, after Washington "made it very clear that you cannot depend on the US for your defence", he said.
Trump's policies had meanwhile significantly weakened the US economy even before the war, he maintained.  
Stiglitz pointed to troubling indicators, like the lack of labour force growth in 2025 and last month's hike in unemployment.
And while there had been growth, it had been "unbalanced", he said, with around a third coming from the creation of artificial intelligence data centres.
The stock market, meanwhile, "is doing well because it's dominated by AI and tech firms", he said.
"If you look at the rest of the stock market, it's just languishing."

Trump 'destroyed confidence'

At the same time, Stiglitz said he expected to see Trump's tariff policy boost inflation.
Typically, when applying tariffs, a country could expect to see the value of its currency rise, since it is buying fewer goods abroad, which should lower inflation, the economist said.
But in this case, he pointed out that "the dollar has gotten weaker".
That, he said, is because "Trump has destroyed confidence in America and the dollar". 
"The weaker dollar means that, rather than less inflation from the tariffs, there's more inflation... Everything we import is more expensive in dollar terms."
Added to that now is inflation from the war, as well as greater uncertainty among households and businesses.
They "don't know what the tariffs are going to be, (or) how long this war is going to last. They don't know what energy prices are going to be", Stiglitz said.
Businesses, he insisted, "can't invest in these circumstances".
nl/rjm/sbk

US

Middle East war: global economic fallout

  • - Oil comes off highs, stocks recover - Oil prices rose initially but then fell back after news that a Pakistani tanker had transited the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war on Monday: - Pakistani tanker transits Hormuz - A Pakistani oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz with its automatic transponder system activated, monitor Marine Traffic said Monday, the first such voyage by a non-Iranian tanker since the start of the war.
  • - Oil comes off highs, stocks recover - Oil prices rose initially but then fell back after news that a Pakistani tanker had transited the Strait of Hormuz.
Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war on Monday:

Pakistani tanker transits Hormuz

A Pakistani oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz with its automatic transponder system activated, monitor Marine Traffic said Monday, the first such voyage by a non-Iranian tanker since the start of the war.
Marine Traffic said on X that the 237-metre-long Pakistani-flagged oil tanker had a draft of 11.5 metres, indicating it was heavy and likely loaded.

IEA hints at more releases

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said more strategic oil stocks could be released if necessary to limit the fallout of the virtual blockage of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz owing to the war on Iran.
"In terms of government stocks and industry stocks held under government obligation, if you combine them, there will be still over 1.4 billion barrels remaining, which means we can do more later as and if needed," Birol said in a video statement.
"The single most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz," he added.

Oil comes off highs, stocks recover

Oil prices rose initially but then fell back after news that a Pakistani tanker had transited the Strait of Hormuz. A barrel of Brent was down 1.4 percent at $101.9 after earlier in the day being up three percent while main US contract West Texas Intermediate was off 3.5 percent at $95.26. US and European stocks were all in the green shortly after Wall Street opened.   

Iraq hopes to revive pipeline

Iraq is hoping to ship up to 250,000 barrels of oil per day to a port in Turkey via a rehabilitated pipeline that has been out of service for years, its oil minister said, after the US-Israeli war on Iran cut off its main export route.
The amount would be just a fraction of the roughly 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) that Iraq exported before the conflict, mostly through its southern Basra port and the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has been severely disrupted by the war.

Japan starts releasing oil stocks

Japan said Monday it was beginning the release of its strategic oil reserves after the International Energy Agency indicated earlier that the release would begin in Asia and Oceania before other regions.
IEA members agreed on March 11 to tap oil stockpiles to cushion the surge in prices caused by the war -- by far the largest-ever response of its kind. The IEA said releases in Europe and North America would start before the end of March.

Dubai airport flights disrupted

Missiles and drone attacks struck across the UAE, with a drone-related incident sparking a fuel tank fire near Dubai airport that disrupted travel, while a missile killed a civilian in Abu Dhabi.
In the eastern emirate of Fujairah, a drone attack on oil infrastructure sparked a fire, days after an AFP journalist saw smoke rising from a major Emirati energy installation in the emirate.
The attacks came a day after Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said rockets had been launched from the UAE to attack Kharg Island. UAE officials have denied the claim.

Central banks meet as oil prices fuel inflation

Some of the world's biggest central banks meet this week as fears grow the energy price shock unleashed by the Middle East war could fuel wider inflation and weigh on growth.
The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan hold previously scheduled meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, with their comments on the conflict's potential fallout set to be closely scrutinised.
burs/cw/rl

US

Will Yemen's Houthis join the Mideast war?

  • The group was also battered by rounds of US and Israeli air strikes after starting their Red Sea campaign in October 2023.
  • With assault rifles, daggers and posters of Iran's late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waving in the air as tens of thousands chant "death to America, death to Israel", there's little mistaking where the loyalties of Yemen's Houthis lie. 
  • The group was also battered by rounds of US and Israeli air strikes after starting their Red Sea campaign in October 2023.
With assault rifles, daggers and posters of Iran's late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waving in the air as tens of thousands chant "death to America, death to Israel", there's little mistaking where the loyalties of Yemen's Houthis lie. 
But will the battle-hardened militia backed by the Islamic republic join the war with the United States and Israel?
Since the Middle East war erupted, the Houthis have held regular demonstrations in their capital Sanaa, where supporters have come out in full force to rally behind their brothers in arms in Iran.
The Houthis' leader has insisted the group is prepared to join the fray but has stopped short of issuing orders to join the war. 
"Our fingers are on the trigger, ready to respond at any moment should developments warrant it," Abdul Malik al-Houthi told his ranks.
Following the Hamas attacks against Israel in October 2023, the Houthis slowed traffic in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to a trickle, with occasional barrages of missiles and drones keeping insurance rates high and pushing shippers to alternative routes. 
The strategy proved to be prescient, with the Houthis backers in Iran using the same blueprint to paralyse the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that is crucial to the global transit of crude and liquefied natural gas.
From their mountainous perch overlooking the Red Sea, the Houthis effectively have a gun pointed at the temple of the Gulf economies, with any shot likely to further rattle global markets.
"The Houthis are holding in place, signalling readiness, and keeping their options open while they avoid immediate US or Israeli retaliation," Mohammed al-Basha of the US-based risk advisory Basha Report told AFP of the Houthis' current posture. 
According to a map by the energy analysis firm Kpler, an armada of tankers stretching from the Strait of Malacca near Singapore to gates of the Red Sea are racing to export terminals in Saudi Arabia's Yanbu to fill their cavernous hulls.  
There, a network of pipes bisecting the Arabian Peninsula connects the storage tanks, refineries and oil fields along the Gulf coast in the east to the Red Sea to the west -- supplying up to seven million barrels of oil a day to the market.
The plan however only works if the Houthis stay on the sidelines. 
"At what point do the Houthis begin attacking oil infrastructure along the Red Sea at Iran’s request?" wrote Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. 

'Exhausted'

For ordinary Yemenis, who have already weathered over a decade of war, more violence would only bring more hardship to their lives.  
"People are exhausted and worn out," a 32-year-old lawyer in Sanaa told AFP, asking not to be named. 
"They can't afford clothes, or medical care, or even food and drink, and they absolutely can't bear another war."
But the Houthis' calculations remain complex. 
They entered the global stage as Yemen descended into civil war more than a decade ago when the ragtag militia fighters stormed Sanaa and ousted the government from most population centres.
Since then the group has amassed an arsenal of sophisticated missiles and a variety of drones with support from Iran that are able to hit targets hundreds of kilometres (miles) from Yemen's borders.  
Hailing from a different strain of the Shia faith, the Houthis are less ideologically tethered to Iran and have long enjoyed more independence from Tehran than other proxies in the Middle East. 
The group was also battered by rounds of US and Israeli air strikes after starting their Red Sea campaign in October 2023.
The Houthis, however, have held an uneasy peace with the Saudi-backed military coalition in Yemen since agreeing to a truce in 2022 -- resulting in a dramatic decrease in fighting across the country. 
Firing at the Red Sea would mean torching any future relationship with Saudi Arabia and the billions they could bring to the table to rebuild Yemen, along with a potential future settlement with the Riyadh-backed government in Aden. 
The move would also inevitably trigger a ferocious response from the US and Israel along with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. 
"It's the people who pay the price for such involvement," a 40 year-old housewife from Hodeidah told AFP. 
"Destruction, fear, and innocent lives lost for no reason."
str-sar-ds/ser

technology

Rise of drone warfare sharpens focus on laser defense

BY THOMAS URBAIN

  • At that price, not even Iran's notorious Shahed drones, estimated to cost as low as $20,000 each, or drone interceptors developed by Ukraine, whose costs start at around $700, can compete.
  • The surge of drone use in conflicts worldwide, seen most vividly in the Ukraine and Middle East wars, will accelerate the race to develop high-power laser systems that could down the devices far more cheaply than traditional defensive weapons.
  • At that price, not even Iran's notorious Shahed drones, estimated to cost as low as $20,000 each, or drone interceptors developed by Ukraine, whose costs start at around $700, can compete.
The surge of drone use in conflicts worldwide, seen most vividly in the Ukraine and Middle East wars, will accelerate the race to develop high-power laser systems that could down the devices far more cheaply than traditional defensive weapons.
It is a critical issue for governments threatened by low-cost, easily obtainable drones that can wreak outsize destruction, and are usually shot down only by the most advanced -- and expensive -- missile technologies.
Currently, so-called directed energy weapons (DEWs) mounted to ships or armored vehicles can fire a concentrated electromagnetic beam at targets up to 20 kilometers (12 miles) away.
"Those systems have made a lot of progress in the last 10 to 15 years," said Iain Boyd, director of the Center for National Security Initiatives at the University of Colorado. 
Russia is using several versions against drones from Ukraine, which is testing its own system, while Israel has deployed the Iron Beam technology from Rafael against drones fired by Lebanon's Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. 
However, the Israeli Army confirmed to The Jerusalem Post last week that Iron Beam was not being deployed in its current war with Iran, saying it was not ready for regular use.
China presented its LY-1 system last September, Britain and France are developing their own versions, and the United States has started equipping warships in particular, with Helios from Lockheed-Martin or the LWSD from Northrop Grumman.
"We have shown this technology has broad applicability including military operations and for homeland defense," Northrop told AFP in a statement.

Pennies per shot?

US President Donald Trump said recently that "the laser technology that we have now is incredible," and would soon replace the Patriot interceptor missile for taking out drones.
That would be music to the ears of military planners who are using the pricey Patriot and similar systems, where a single missile can cost millions of dollars, to down drones worth just several thousand dollars.
A top official in Britain's DragonFire program has estimated its per-fire cost at around 10 pounds ($13).
"The cost of firing one laser or microwave is really the cost of electricity," an expert in DEW systems design told AFP on condition of anonymity.
After the initial investment is made, "it's going to be pennies per shot," the designer said.
At that price, not even Iran's notorious Shahed drones, estimated to cost as low as $20,000 each, or drone interceptors developed by Ukraine, whose costs start at around $700, can compete.
Other advantages include no launching device, the ability to modulate the beam's intensity, and unlimited "ammunition."
Billions of dollars have been invested in the technology, and in 2018 the US Navy ordered two DEW prototypes for around $75 million each.

Limitations

But the challenges for making lasers more widespread in the fight against drones are daunting. 
"One is just the pointing, the ability to point -- you really need to maintain the laser spot on the same area to create an effect," said Boyd of the University of Colorado.
"If it's sort of moving all over a drone or something, it's not going to do anything."
Laser systems are also less effective in cloudy weather, and can also be a risk for other aircraft in the area.
In February, the FAA aviation authority shut down airspace near El Paso, Texas after the US military mistakenly shot down a government drone with a laser near the Mexican border.
According to The New York Times, the FAA had not approved the use of the laser.
tu/js/mlm

US

Central banks meet as Mideast war fuels inflation fears

BY SAM REEVES

  • Oil and gas prices have surged, which typically feed into higher household energy and food costs, raising fears of a repeat of the 2022 Ukraine war inflation shock.
  • Some of the world's biggest central banks meet this week as fears grow the energy shock unleashed by the Middle East war could fuel inflation and weigh on growth.
  • Oil and gas prices have surged, which typically feed into higher household energy and food costs, raising fears of a repeat of the 2022 Ukraine war inflation shock.
Some of the world's biggest central banks meet this week as fears grow the energy shock unleashed by the Middle East war could fuel inflation and weigh on growth.
The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan hold previously scheduled meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, with their comments on the conflict's potential fallout set to be closely scrutinised.
The war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route, as well as Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure around the Gulf.
Oil and gas prices have surged, which typically feed into higher household energy and food costs, raising fears of a repeat of the 2022 Ukraine war inflation shock.
But, rather than rush to hike rates to cool a potential price spike, policymakers are expected to keep borrowing costs on hold for now while offering assurances they stand ready to act.
"We think most central banks will remain on hold this time and wait to assess the impact of the spike in energy prices on inflation," UniCredit analysts said in a note. 

'Tough spot'

The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, and is widely expected to keep borrowing costs on hold for its second straight meeting.
But the US central bank is "in a really tough spot right now", Wells Fargo economist Nicole Cervi told AFP, as concerns about rising inflation due to the Iran war come into conflict with worries about the job market.
The Fed has a dual mandate of holding inflation near a long-term target of two percent while ensuring full employment. But inflation is already well above target, while signs are growing of labour market weakness.
The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates steady, with inflation having settled around its target in recent months, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely reiterate her belief that rates remain in a "good place" for now.
She will likely be keen to emphasise the bank is ready to act, however, particularly since the ECB was criticised for moving too slowly to combat the surge in costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics, told AFP that the ECB would want to stress that they were "not panicking". 
"They're not going to rush to react to energy price movements which have been very extreme but very volatile," he said.
"It's not clear how long this is going to last and what the long-term or medium-term inflationary impact is going to be," he added.

Moves on hold?

Also announcing its decision on Thursday is the Bank of England, which is expected to keep rates steady.
Before the conflict, investors had been betting on more cuts this year as Britain's sticky inflation eased further -- but these bets have now been scaled back.
Unlike many of its Western peers, the Bank of Japan had already been hiking rates in recent times to combat rising inflation, following a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy.
While the central bank is not expected to tighten borrowing costs again when it meets Thursday, some analysts believe higher energy costs could encourage policymakers to bring forward its next hike to April.
Despite the worries about a surge in global costs similar to that seen in 2022, when inflation topped 10 percent in the eurozone and nine percent in the US, some analysts played down the dangers. 
Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics said that the economic backdrop in 2022 -- with loose monetary and fiscal policy combined with an energy shock and supply constraints -- was different to that today.
"It was a kind of perfect storm for inflation," he told AFP. "We're not in that world now."
bur-sr/vbw/cw

market

EU wants to tap citizens' savings. Easier said than done

BY RAZIYE AKKOC

  • Currently, 10 trillion euros ($11.6 trillion) of EU citizens' savings are held as bank deposits, according to the bloc's executive, because people see it as safe.
  • The idea sounds simple: tap trillions of euros of EU citizens' savings to unlock capital for European companies through a more integrated financial market.
  • Currently, 10 trillion euros ($11.6 trillion) of EU citizens' savings are held as bank deposits, according to the bloc's executive, because people see it as safe.
The idea sounds simple: tap trillions of euros of EU citizens' savings to unlock capital for European companies through a more integrated financial market.
Getting over the finish line, however, has been complicated, with EU states unable to agree and the idea languishing for years.
More than a decade after the European Union first floated the idea of a deeper capital market, the issue has come roaring back into the spotlight -- and with it the type of concern that dogged previous efforts.
The renewed impetus stems from fears the EU is lagging dangerously behind the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China -- one of the topics set to dominate a summit of the bloc's leaders this week.
Some, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have raised the prospect of several EU states moving forward, leaving others behind, to establish a Savings and Investments Union.
A key element of such a union is centralising market supervision, an issue pitting the EU's six biggest economies against smaller countries.
France, Germany, Italy and three others say the move is necessary, but Luxembourg and Ireland have expressed reservations.
The topic will be discussed in depth when EU leaders meet Thursday.
But what really does the EU want, and can it be achieved?

What is the plan?

The idea first appeared as the "Capital Markets Union" when then-president of the commission Jean-Claude Juncker raised it in 2014.
Now the EU prefers the phrase "Savings and Investments Union" -- which combines the Capital Markets Union and the Banking Union.
Brussels wants to unify national financial markets to make investments flow more seamlessly across the EU.
The commission also wants markets to provide more attractive financial instruments to European citizens, who are more fearful of investing in stock markets than their American counterparts.
Currently, 10 trillion euros ($11.6 trillion) of EU citizens' savings are held as bank deposits, according to the bloc's executive, because people see it as safe.
The reform push is also about giving better access to money for businesses.
By harmonising financial markets and getting rid of the fragmentation that hinders pooling vast capital, there could be much bigger sums available for scale-ups and infrastructure, experts say.
"That is one of the key disadvantages the EU is facing compared to the US and China," said analyst Philipp Lausberg of the European Policy Centre think tank.

Why is this a hot topic again?

Europe needs money -- lots of it.
A landmark 2024 report estimated the EU's additional investment needs at 750 billion to 800 billion euros annually.
The EU needs to plough more money into its digital and green transitions as well as defence, faced with rising global instability.
Leaders are keen to move fast.
They agreed in February they wanted "to be done with phase one of the Savings and Investment Union, that includes the market integration, the supervision and the securitisation, by June", von der Leyen said.
Without "sufficient progress", she warned willing EU states would press on alone.
Under EU rules, at least nine countries could go full steam ahead on the project without others.

Is it popular?

In theory, member states all support the idea.
In practice, there are strong divisions over how it should look.
A group of countries known as "E6" -- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland -- want the Paris-based European Securities and Markets Authority to become the EU's supervisor of large stock exchanges.
Irish Finance Minister Simon Harris recommended "enhancing" its role instead.
The business community supports the Savings and Investments Union, including Europe's biggest organisation representing firms, BusinessEurope.
Others, while welcoming deeper financial markets, are more cautious.
Julia Symon, head of research and advocacy at NGO Finance Watch, said key barriers need to be removed if Europe wants a "regime comparable to the US, currently the main destination of EU private capital outflows".
This would mean "joint supervision, harmonised insolvency and greater tax coherence, which go far beyond what is currently proposed", she told AFP.
"The goal should not be to expand finance for its own sake, but to ensure that finance serves long-term economic resilience and productive investment."
fpo-raz/ec/jhb

crime

Indonesia firms in palm oil fraud probe supplied fuel majors

BY SARA HUSSEIN

  • There is no suggestion that Eni, Neste or other companies supplied by Indonesian firms implicated in the probe had knowledge of or involvement in fraud.
  • Indonesian companies targeted in a palm oil fraud probe supplied European firms including Italian energy giant Eni and Finnish sustainable aviation fuel leader Neste, an investigation by AFP and SourceMaterial has found.
  • There is no suggestion that Eni, Neste or other companies supplied by Indonesian firms implicated in the probe had knowledge of or involvement in fraud.
Indonesian companies targeted in a palm oil fraud probe supplied European firms including Italian energy giant Eni and Finnish sustainable aviation fuel leader Neste, an investigation by AFP and SourceMaterial has found.
The links raise fresh questions about supply chains in the biofuel sector, experts said, and follow persistent allegations of fraud involving palm oil products used as fuel feedstocks.
There is no suggestion that Eni, Neste or other companies supplied by Indonesian firms implicated in the probe had knowledge of or involvement in fraud.
The Indonesian probe alleges local companies and government officials conspired to pass off palm oil as a waste byproduct called palm oil mill effluent (POME), including by offering bribes.
For the Indonesian government, this is a financial issue -- the higher tax on palm oil means labelling the product as POME allegedly defrauded authorities of millions of dollars in revenue.
For customers, the allegations threaten sustainability pledges. Palm oil has long been associated with deforestation, and both Eni and Neste have officially removed it from their supply chains.
The European Union will ban its use in biofuel from 2030.
Both Eni and Neste received multiple shipments described as POME from Indonesian companies accused of mislabelling palm oil as the waste byproduct.
Experts and campaigners said the alleged fraud illustrated the sector's oversight problems.
"The EU rightly decided to phase out palm oil biofuels in 2019 because of its links to deforestation," said Cian Delaney, biofuels campaigner at environmental NGO Transport and Environment (T&E).
"But disguising palm oil as waste products like POME... has been far too easy for suppliers and traders. Verification and certification of these imports is clearly failing," Delaney said.

Persistent fraud claims

Eni said it had no direct contracts with accused companies and received shipments through an accredited supplier who "immediately suspended all operations with the companies involved in the investigation".
The supplier, Enviq, did not respond to requests for comment.
Neste also said it had instructed its supplier to exclude implicated companies from its supply chain after the Indonesian investigation was announced.
It said all deliveries linked to suppliers implicated in the Indonesian investigation had previously been sampled by independent surveyors who confirmed they "met the specifications for palm-derived waste feedstock."
Indonesia has long suspected POME fraud and last year temporarily limited exports after trade data recorded volumes far exceeding estimated available supply.
Then last month, Indonesian authorities arrested 11 people, including customs officials, accused of defrauding the government between 2022 and 2024 by labelling palm oil as POME.
The attorney general's office (AGO) gave only the initials of those arrested and their firms.
AFP and SourceMaterial used trade data, including some supplied by T&E, shareholder agreements, and customs documents obtained through freedom of information requests to ascertain the identities of three of those arrested.
A source in the AGO confirmed the findings.
Among them is "TNY", a shareholder in Green Product International, and director of a company identified only as TEO.
This refers to Tony, who like many Indonesians uses a single name. Tony is director of Tanimas Edible Oil and a shareholder in Green Product International.
Green Product International was the source of multiple shipments of a product labelled as POME to Eni and Neste between 2023 and 2024.
There is no conclusive evidence as to what those shipments contained.
Green Product International did not respond to a request for comment.
AFP and SourceMaterial identified two other companies implicated in the probe, Surya Inti Primakarya, whose director, Van Ricardo, was arrested, and Bumi Mulia Makmur, whose director, Erwin, was arrested.
Both signed off on shipments to Eni between 2022 and 2024.
Calls and messages to both companies seeking comment were not answered.
All three men remain in custody, the AGO said.

'Independent scrutiny'

Eni said the company that handled its shipments was certified by International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC), an EU-certified verifier of the bloc's palm oil product imports.
An ISCC spokesperson said Surya Inti Primakarya is "currently excluded from recertification" and Bumi Mulia Makmur was "previously excluded".
But Green Product International still holds a valid certificate, the ISCC's online registry shows. The spokesperson did not respond when asked whether that accreditation would be reexamined.
Other companies Green Product International supplied indirectly include Swiss trader Kolmar, which declined to provide an on-record statement, as well as Spanish oil major Repsol and American multinational Cargill, neither of which replied to requests for comment.
Allegations of fraud in the POME sector have circulated for years, given high demand for use as a sustainable fuel feedstock, and the higher taxes sometimes levied on palm oil.
Some analyses have suggested the amount of POME being used in the EU and Britain exceeds available global supply, suggesting widespread mislabelling, though some industry groups have disputed those calcuations.
Ireland has ended incentives for POME's use in biofuels, and Germany will follow suit next year.
James Cogan, head of public policy at ClonBio, an Irish biofuel maker that only sources from the EU, said verification is so problematic that buyers and regulators should be suspicious of any shipment marked as POME.
"I would challenge any POME or POME-based biofuels processor to publish their volumes, sources and paperwork, to allow public and independent scrutiny," he said.
ds-mrc-sah/sco/fox

semiconductors

AI to drive growth despite geopolitics, Taiwan's Foxconn says

  • "However, driven by the strong growth of AI servers, I believe 2026 will still be a very good year, and we expect to see robust growth."
  • Taiwanese tech giant Foxconn on Monday said it expected the booming market for artificial intelligence servers to drive growth this year, despite volatility caused by global conflict.
  • "However, driven by the strong growth of AI servers, I believe 2026 will still be a very good year, and we expect to see robust growth."
Taiwanese tech giant Foxconn on Monday said it expected the booming market for artificial intelligence servers to drive growth this year, despite volatility caused by global conflict.
Strong demand for AI hardware fuelled a 24 percent annual net profit jump last year for Foxconn, the world's largest contract electronics manufacturer.
Energy markets have been roiled by the war in the Middle East, raising concerns for big tech manufacturers, but company chairman Young Liu struck an upbeat tone at an earnings call with analysts.
"Over the past few months, there have been significant changes in tariffs, geopolitics, and global monetary policy," he said.
"However, driven by the strong growth of AI servers, I believe 2026 will still be a very good year, and we expect to see robust growth."
Foxconn -- also known by its official name Hon Hai Precision Industry -- has gone beyond assembling low-margin Apple iPhones to making AI servers for Nvidia along with electric vehicles and robotics.
It's a move that is paying off as tech firms worldwide race to spend big on training and deploying rapidly evolving AI systems.
In 2025, Foxconn's net profit came to NT$189.4 billion ($5.9 billion), up from NT$152.7 billion in 2024.
Revenue jumped 18 percent on-year to NT$8.1 trillion, the firm said, just beating the estimates of a Bloomberg survey of economists.

AI ambitions

Sky-high tech share results and valuations worldwide have led to concerns of an AI market bubble that could eventually burst.
But Foxconn on Monday forecast "strong AI server demand" with "high double-digit quarter-on-quarter growth" expected for AI rack shipments in the first quarter of 2026.
Liu said the company wanted to become "the most trusted industrial platform of the AI era".
Cloud and networking services accounted for 40 percent of Foxconn's business portfolio in 2025, up from 30 percent in 2024.
Meanwhile, smart consumer electronics declined from 46 percent to 38 percent.
Huge global demand for memory chips to use in AI data centres has caused a shortage that is threatening higher prices for everyday gadgets.
"Everyone is concerned about memory shortages and related price hikes" fors smart consumer products, Liu said Monday.
But "since our product portfolio is mainly composed of higher-priced models, the impact we've observed so far has been relatively limited" while demand has not changed, he added.
Ahead of Monday's earnings release, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Tseng told AFP that for Foxconn, "so far the impact from the Middle East conflict appears largely manageable".
"As the region is not a major market for either AI hardware or smartphones, the main risk is more on costs than demand, driven by higher oil prices and some logistic disruptions," he said.
bur-kaf/dan

Israel

Strait of Hormuz forms part of front line in Mideast war

  • - 'Maritime disruption' - The UKMTO said in its latest advisory, issued on Saturday, that, since the war started, "at least twenty maritime incidents involving commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure have been reported" across the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
  • Attacks targeting commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have put the blockaded waterway on the front line of the Middle East war, with spreading economic repercussions.
  • - 'Maritime disruption' - The UKMTO said in its latest advisory, issued on Saturday, that, since the war started, "at least twenty maritime incidents involving commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure have been reported" across the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
Attacks targeting commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have put the blockaded waterway on the front line of the Middle East war, with spreading economic repercussions.
Iran's quest to inflict maximum pain on the global economy in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes has all but shut the narrow strait through which 20 percent of global crude and LNG normally passes.
US President Donald Trump on Saturday urged countries that rely on oil carried through the Hormuz strait to step up and help take responsibility for keeping the passage open -- with American support.
Currently, only a tiny fraction of the vessels that used to navigate the strategic waterway have made it through, while some have ended up in flames.

Vessels hit

At least 10 oil tankers have been hit, targeted or reported attacks since the start of the conflict, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Iraqi authorities, and Iranian authorities.
Seven were reported to the UKMTO: the Skylight, MKD Vyom, Hercules Star, Ocean Electra, Stena Imperative, Libra Trader and Sonangol Namibe.
Iraq's State Organisation for Marketing of Oil said two other oil tankers, Safesea Vishnu and Zefyros, were hit on Thursday.
The Revolutionary Guards, the ideological arm of the Iranian military, claimed drone strikes on two other oil tankers: the Prima and the Louis P. It also said it hit the Athe Nova, an asphalt/bitumen tanker.
AFP was not in a position to independently verify these claims.
Four bulk carriers, three container ships, a tugboat, an oil drilling vessel and a cargo ship also reported explosions, strikes or suspicious activity in the area to UKMTO.
Thailand's navy said its bulk carrier, the Mayuree Naree, was attacked while transiting the strait. Oman's navy rescued 20 crew members, but efforts were underway to find three more.
The Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack on Wednesday, and also said they had struck a Liberia-flagged vessel.
Provisional figures from the IMO show that at least six sailors and a port worker were killed, and one sailor was still reported missing as of Wednesday.

'Maritime disruption'

The UKMTO said in its latest advisory, issued on Saturday, that, since the war started, "at least twenty maritime incidents involving commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure have been reported" across the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
It said that there was "no consistent pattern of Western ownership linkage, suggesting that the current strike pattern reflects a campaign aimed at broad maritime disruption rather than selective vessel targeting".
The Western-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) concurred, saying that while some vessels "have potential Western commercial associations... multiple attacks have involved vessels with no confirmed affiliation to US or Israeli ownership".

'Burn any ship'

Iranian officials have issued contradictory statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz since the war's outbreak.
On March 3, a Revolutionary Guards general threatened to "burn any ship" attempting to cross the strait and to block all oil exports from the Gulf.
But three days later, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had "no intention" of closing the passage.
And on Wednesday, IRGC naval commander Alireza Tangsiri said in a social media post that "any vessel intending to pass must get permission from Iran". 
Separately, the Iranian military's operational command declared on state television that any vessel belonging to the United States, Israel or their allies would be considered a legitimate target and repeated a warning that it would "not allow a single litre of oil to transit" the strait.

Mine-layers destroyed

The Pentagon said Tuesday that US forces had destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels that could have been used to block the strait, but attacks with drones or missiles continued on Wednesday with at least three ships hit.
After US attacks on military infrastructure on Iran's crude oil export hub of Kharg Island Saturday, Trump warned that for "reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island".
"However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision."
France's President Emmanuel Macron, whose country is current president of the Group of Seven advanced economies, on Wednesday urged other G7 leaders to act to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz "as soon as possible".
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US

War in the Middle East: latest developments

  • "A short while ago, the IDF began a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime in western Iran," the army said in a statement.
  • Here are the latest events in the Middle East war: - Israel launches 'wide-scale' strikes - Israel's military said it began a broad wave of strikes on western Iran, more than two weeks into the US-Israeli war against the Islamic republic.
  • "A short while ago, the IDF began a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime in western Iran," the army said in a statement.
Here are the latest events in the Middle East war:

Israel launches 'wide-scale' strikes

Israel's military said it began a broad wave of strikes on western Iran, more than two weeks into the US-Israeli war against the Islamic republic.
"A short while ago, the IDF began a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime in western Iran," the army said in a statement.

Iraq warns of prison at risk

Iraq warned that drone attacks near Baghdad airport threatened the security of the nearby prison housing Islamic State group suspects recently brought from Syria. 
They have been held since in Baghdad's al-Karkh prison, once a US Army detention centre known as Camp Cropper, which is part of Baghdad airport's complex that has been subjected to repeated strikes. 
Since the start of the Middle East war, Tehran-backed armed groups have been claiming daily drone and rocket attacks against US bases in Iraq.

Zelensky fears losing US support

Ukraine does not want to lose US support for its struggle against Russia as a result of Washington's war with Iran, President Volodymyr Zelensky has told journalists. 
"We are showing our willingness to help the United States and their allies in the Middle East" by offering to share Ukraine's drone expertise, and "we strongly hope that as a result of the Middle East, the United States will not turn its back on the question of the war in Ukraine", he added.  

Iran Guards threaten Israeli PM

Iran's Revolutionary Guards vowed on Sunday to "pursue and kill" Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to their website Sepah News. 

Pentagon identifies soldiers killed

The Pentagon released the identities of six US crew members killed during the crash of a refuelling aircraft in western Iraq earlier this week, which authorities said was not caused by "hostile fire."
The Pentagon said the six members killed in the crash were John Klinner, 33; Ariana Savino, 31; Ashley Pruitt, 34; Seth Koval, 38; Curtis Angst, 30; and Tyler Simmons, 28.

South Korea evacuates more than 200

South Korea is evacuating 204 of its citizens and seven other nationals from the Middle East using a military aircraft, the foreign ministry said, calling the operation "unprecedented".
The evacuees are due to arrive in South Korea on Sunday afternoon.

Loud explosions heard in Bahrain's Manama

Explosions rang out over Bahrain's capital of Manama early on Sunday, two AFP journalists said.
Bahrain said it had intercepted 125 missiles and 203 drones since the start of Iran's attacks, which have killed two people in the kingdom and 24 others in neighbouring Gulf nations.

Iraq football team to travel to Mexico  

Iraq will travel to Mexico for a 2026 World Cup playoff match despite calls for it to be postponed due to the Middle East war, the country's football association said Saturday.
The national team would depart in the coming days via a private plane ahead of the match scheduled for March 31 in the Mexican city of Monterrey. 

Bahrain, Saudi Arabia F1 races cancelled

The Formula One races scheduled for April in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have been cancelled due to the conflict, motorsport's governing body announced.

More Iranian footballers drop asylum bid

Three members of the Iranian women's football team granted asylum in Australia have changed their minds and decided to return home to Iran, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said.
One other team member seeking refuge had a change of heart in the past week and left the country, leaving a total of three out of seven asylum seekers from the squad still in Australia.
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US

'Dubai is safe': UAE pushes to contain fallout from Iran onslaught

  • Dubai-based influencers have showcased support for the government and invoked a sense of national belonging -- hammering home the message that the country was as safe as ever.
  • Dubai is scrambling to preserve its image as a safe haven despite Iran's onslaught, with influencers rallying behind the government's message as authorities crack down on those sharing footage of strikes.
  • Dubai-based influencers have showcased support for the government and invoked a sense of national belonging -- hammering home the message that the country was as safe as ever.
Dubai is scrambling to preserve its image as a safe haven despite Iran's onslaught, with influencers rallying behind the government's message as authorities crack down on those sharing footage of strikes.
For decades, the Gulf was seen as an oasis of safety in a tumultuous Middle East, with the United Arab Emirates branding itself the safest country in the world and boasting of its very low crime rates.
But that image has now been shattered.
Iran has fired over 1,800 missiles and drones at the Emirates, more than any other country targeted by Tehran in the conflict, upending its aura of tranquillity despite its air defence intercepting a vast majority of the projectiles. 
Dubai-based influencers have showcased support for the government and invoked a sense of national belonging -- hammering home the message that the country was as safe as ever.
Kuwaiti-American reality star Ebraheem Alsamadi, known from "Dubai Bling", said in a video that he would stay in the UAE despite US consular advice, calling it "the safest country in the world, and nothing can change that".
"This has been my home for the past 16 years and I'm not going to leave it in 16 seconds... I will stand by this country as it stood by me," he added.
Authorities have also doubled down on their messaging as fears grow that war could do long-term damage to Dubai's reputation and its economy.
Dubai's Instagram account shared an emotional song to its 5.8 million followers that says "Dubai is safe, will always be safe".
Safety had long been inseparable from the city's identity. 
"Those in charge of that strategy are now debating how to evolve it in the face of this obvious insecurity, but for now are deferring to their habits," said Ryan Bohl, a geopolitical analyst at Rane Network.
The UAE is also, he said, "hoping the war will be short enough that people will not associate war with the country. And one of the best ways to do so is to minimise the impact of the conflict on the UAE itself".

Safeguarding reputation

Roughly 90 percent of people living in the UAE are foreigners, a crucial workforce for diversifying the economy away from oil towards tourism and services.
Retaining and attracting foreign talent remains key to that programme.
The tourism sector is acutely susceptible to security issues, but "different tourists from different parts of the world have different risk tolerances," Bohl said.
To combat further fallout, authorities have doubled down on pushing an image of normality during the war.
In the early days of the war, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan walked with his massive entourage through Dubai Mall.
At flagship tourist sites like Dubai Mall and JBR beach, foot traffic has reduced to a trickle as visitors have fled the country.
Emaar, a major real estate developer that runs famous shopping centres including Dubai Mall, has warned shops and restaurants against closing or operating at reduced hours during the war. 
"Such actions undermine public order, create unnecessary concern and adversely affect the reputation and economic standing of the United Arab Emirates," the company said, in a note sent to the shops seen by AFP.

'Sharing rumours'

Footage of drone strikes and smoke billowing above the city has been shared widely, while fleeing tourists recounted tales of escaping Dubai under fire to international media.
To avert further reputational damage, authorities moved swiftly.
Dubai police warned against "sharing rumours" but also "photographing or sharing security or critical sites".
Other Gulf countries have taken similar measures, with Qatar arresting more than 300 people.
The UAE attorney general ordered the arrest and urgent trial of a number of people for publishing videos of interceptions or "misleading, fabricated content".
The Emirati crackdown has sparked backlash after Western media covered the arrests.
This strategy "will backfire for specific audiences, particularly Westerners and others from democracies who are used to having freedom of expression," said Bohl.
This week, many companies evacuated Dubai's financial district as Iran threatened US and Israel-linked economic targets.
It will be key for the UAE, and especially Dubai, which cannot rely on oil for revenue, to showcase that it is still safe for investments.
"If major investors, particularly in infrastructure, technology, real estate, etcetera, no longer believe that their investments are safe this would have a much more significant impact and the diversification plans of the UAE," he said.
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